I may be speaking early, but it appears this Fall wave is already starting to fizzle. Either this is not the one, or it will be smaller than feared. There is indeed reason to think this may be the case, but first, a look at NC metrics. (1/x)
In NC, the CLI has turned sharply down, percent positive, hospitalizations, and ICU have flattened. Cases are struggling to go up. (2/x) 
Not surprisingly, nearby Tennessee is seeing a similar trend, once again showing us that the virus is doing its thing. Hospitalizations and ICU have flattened there as well. Cases seem to have stalled. (3/x)
Similar trend in many places. Cases are not skyrocketing like they used to, despite states testing at record numbers. Below are a few other examples. (4/x)
Again, it may be early to be optimistic, but:
1) Other coronaviruses have a cycle where they have a rampant year every 2-3 years and other years they are mild.
2) Infection blocking immunity for coronaviruses are believed to last 1-2 years on average.
What do these mean? (5/x)
1) Other coronaviruses have a cycle where they have a rampant year every 2-3 years and other years they are mild.
2) Infection blocking immunity for coronaviruses are believed to last 1-2 years on average.
What do these mean? (5/x)
One possibility: Because NCov2019 arrived late last season, it was not able to fully run its course in most places. Now it is completing its first ever season, but because % susceptible is now lover, it is not taking off like it would. (6/x)
However, as the environment gets even more favorable in Winter, it may need an even lower % susceptible to take of, meaning higher "case" peaks are still possible. Still, my hunch (& hope) is that deaths will likely remain lower than the April peak. (7/7)
https://twitter.com/covidtweets/status/1294697150614589449?s=20
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