What a sad story: German car manufacturers association @VDA_online commits to climate neutrality by 2050...
BUT...
sees important role for combustion engines & eFuels
(a hideously expensive & inefficient combo).

Only @VWGroup embraces the electric future.
cleanenergywire.org/news/german-ca…
If you are wondering why I scoff at eFuels for cars, just look at the chart. And know that all these efficiency reducing steps require expensive equipment too as @transenv shows in its famous efficiency charts.
transportenvironment.org/press/e-fuels-…
Also know that heavy trucks will be able to drive without weight penalty and at much lower energy and maintenance costs in a few years, due to the electric drivetrain being lighter (researchgate.net/publication/33…)...
and due to the fact that over 80% of trucks travels no more than ~750 km a day and then returns to base where they can charge overnight.

That 80% will be electrified very soon without any need for expensive and inefficient eFuels as discussed here.
)
Don't get me wrong: eFuels are not all bad!

They are great for aviation and other applications where biofuels are currently the only alternative.

EFuels pose much less competition with nature and food than biofuels as shown in the graph.(transportenvironment.org/press/e-fuels-…)
But for road transportation, clinging to combustion engines means either a lack of vision or a lack of courage.

Many German jobs will be lost if the German manufacturing industry doesn't see the light very quickly and stops waffling.

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More from @AukeHoekstra

26 Oct
This German article criticises the "foolish" and "irritatingly energetic" focus of @volkswagen on electric vehicles.

I think the fool that's being exposed is the writer and we need acceleration, not uninformed attempts at procrastination (short rant).
cicero.de/wirtschaft/zuk…
First question in the article: "Shouldn't we focus on synthetic fuels when most cars will have combustion engines in the forseeable future?"

The writer apparently doesn't know synthetic fuels require much more energy and are much more expensive.
"Extremely expensive charging infrastructure"

The writer really doesn't have a clue. I *make* these kinds of calculations and yes, it will cost billions, but compared to e.g. hydrogen and synthetic fuels he trots out here again it's pocket change.
Read 6 tweets
20 Oct
Nieuw rapport: kosten stimulering elektrische auto's VEEL te hoog ingeschat door Algemene @Rekenkamer

Naarmate je realistischer en minder kortzichtig wordt zit de Rekenkamer 3x, 10x of 50x (!) te hoog.

Ik vat mijn oordeel even samen in een draadje.
rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/rap…
Ik maak deze berekening al jaren op een vergelijkbare manier en schreef laatst een vernietigend opiniestuk in @Energeia_Nieuws.

Hoop dat jullie nu eindelijk luisteren @Rekenkamer: effectief klimaatbeleid ontmoedigen met onzin-berekeningen is NIET OK!
energeia.nl/energeia-artik…
Ik weet dat "onrealistische assumpties" diplomatieker klinkt. Maar het zijn volgens mij gewoon grove fouten. Jaar op jaar. Gekmakend!

Wat me ook irriteert is dat @PieterOmtzigt die fouten overneemt. Want op andere gebieden is hij voor mij een held:
Read 13 tweets
19 Oct
New lithium ion battery longevity is amazing:
up to 3.5 MILLION km!

And this will lead to vehicle to grid!

Not just my opinion but that of battery prof. Jeff Dahn expressed in a recent (Sept 20th 2020) presentation.

Short thread

ht @Joost57437492
You might already have heard about their paper showing charts like these that indicate well designed batteries could last up to ten times more km than the car.
When charging and discharging is partial the battery lasts even longer.

I've been saying for a long time that V2G is a good idea but only when it doesn't shorten the lifetime of the car. It seems clear that well constructed batteries are better than this criterion by 10x!
Read 4 tweets
17 Oct
Do I see future for PHEVs? Not really because adding the combustion drivetrain with its costs, maintenance and fuel use loses as battery prices go down.

But there's this too: they use massively more fuel than tests assume.
theicct.org/publications/p… Image
In practice this means 2-4 times more fuel pipe emissions of CO2 and NOx than currently assumed. And switching to WLTP doesn't really help either (and the ICCT agrees with me).

So if tests would be based on reality instead of the laboratory, this would be really bad for PHEVs.
And there's good news on the testing front. It seems the EU might be moving to reality based testing. Also the is more and more on road testing by institutes like @TheICCT informing policy.
theicct.org/publications/t… (ht @YoannBeber) Image
Read 5 tweets
17 Oct
What distinquishes evidence based systems like science from conspiracy theories like QAnon and fakenews?

Now is a good time to explain it again because QAnon's #SaveTheChildren is hurting innocent children and helping Trump to make more victims.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/qanon…
QAnon is extreme but not so fringe anymore, now that we have Republican senators and Trump gamely embracing it.

You and I might "know" that it's a load of crap, but how can we explain the difference between QAnon and evidence based science?
washingtonpost.com/technology/202…
It's all about the scientific method and how it uses empiric evidence that can be challenged and must fit into a plausible theory that can be disproven.
The wikipedia entry is short but good (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientifi…).

But even more than an elaborate method, science is a mindset.
Read 9 tweets
16 Oct
.@MLiebreich proposes to base EU policy on aggregated telemetry data instead of lab. tests. Of course! Why didn't I think of that earlier?
The problem with the lab tests is that they don't reflect reality. They are paid for by the manufacturers instead of by an independent and adversarial organization like the EPA. The manufacturers use loopholes to game the tests. (This part of the problem doesn't exist in the US.)
But even if we organised EPA style advesarial testing, it is very hard to account for actual use. E.g. of plug-in hybrids that can or cannot be a match for someone's travel pattern and can or cannot be plugged in all the time.
Read 4 tweets

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