1/ The ETH/BTC flippening reminds me of the movie Moneyball.
Everybody in baseball "knew" the Moneyball approach would fail.
In reality, the Moneyball approach worked so well that the Red Sox used it two years later to win their first World Series since 1918.
Everybody in baseball "knew" the Moneyball approach would fail.
In reality, the Moneyball approach worked so well that the Red Sox used it two years later to win their first World Series since 1918.
2/ It was a fuzzy belief, not rigorous argument, that drove baseball's common knowledge that the Moneyball approach would fail.
Similarly, flippening deniers have never (that I've seen) rigorously argued as to how bitcoin's proof of work wins vs. ethereum's proof of stake.
Similarly, flippening deniers have never (that I've seen) rigorously argued as to how bitcoin's proof of work wins vs. ethereum's proof of stake.
3/ Flippening deniers, how does bitcoin's proof of work stay "cheap enough" to keep BTC #1?
The fact is, if both bitcoin and ethereum had a $250b market cap, BTC costs an extra $4b per year just to stay *equal* with ETH.
The fact is, if both bitcoin and ethereum had a $250b market cap, BTC costs an extra $4b per year just to stay *equal* with ETH.
4/ If bitcoin switches away from proof of work or ethereum's proof of stake fails, then maybe the flippening won't occur.
Yet, bitcoin's cultural identity likely can't be disentangled from proof of work, and the ethereum community has taken the time to get proof of stake right.
Yet, bitcoin's cultural identity likely can't be disentangled from proof of work, and the ethereum community has taken the time to get proof of stake right.
5/ I think that BTC and ETH continue to both do well for the next few years.
However, compared to proof of stake, proof of work is too expensive.
That's the main reason why I think the flippening occurs no later than two to three years after ethereum launches proof of stake.
However, compared to proof of stake, proof of work is too expensive.
That's the main reason why I think the flippening occurs no later than two to three years after ethereum launches proof of stake.
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