Here's the modelling for winter that is leading to a new lockdown discussion. Black line was the government's "reasonable worst case scenario" capping out at under 1,000 deaths per day. (from the brilliant @bbclaurak) 
Sage (scientific advisory group for emergencies) uses disease modelling from multiple groups, which each use slightly different methods. Two (LSHTM and Warwick) predict peak deaths around 2,000 a day and Imperial above 2,500.
The highest peak comes from team at Public Health England/Cambridge at over 4,000 a day. But all are much higher than the reasonable worst case.
And this is when NHS capacity is busted according to those models.
South West notable as a place we often say has relatively little virus, and yet would be one of the first regions where the NHS would buckle.
"On the current trajectory the NHS would not be able to accept any more patients by Christmas week"
Some thoughts... read more here bbc.co.uk/news/uk-547569…
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