Thread by @Neoavatara

Time to put up or shut up.

Caveats:
1. I am almost the worst person ever on this. I haven't been right about the winner since 08.
2. I think Biden wins. I have thought that all year long (and thought he was the best shot before that).
3. I think EC will be surprisingly close.

I'd honestly be shocked if Trump won MI or WI. It was the flukiest fluke of flukes he won it last time. A slight AA increased turnout shifts that election. I think Biden has accomplished at least that.

I would NOT be surprised if Biden wins Ohio. And NE-1.

I would be a little surprised if Biden wins Florida or Iowa.

I would NOT be surprised if Trump wins Minnesota.

I would be slightly surprised if Trump wins Pennsylvania or Arizona.

Pennsylvania is the most important state this year. I don't see a path for Trump without it...and losing it would make Biden's lead tenuous.

As for Senate...would be a minor miracle (And a Dem missed opportunity) if GOP holds the Senate. Could you imagine the furor from the Left, even if Biden wins?

This map comes down to Iowa (which is moving toward Ernst) and North Carolina (where Tillis is trailing but surging).