AZ Presidential race is tightening because less Republicans are voting for Biden (down from 13% to 7.5%) and President Trump doing better with Independent voters. We believe President Trump will win AZ.
US Senate race is tightening because previously Undecided voters are breaking late towards Senator McSally, especially Independent voters. With momentum shifting in Senator McSally’s favor, we move this race from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up.