Here's the curated list of election hands, data experts and numbers people I follow on election nights to help me understand what's happening. No commentary or spin, just what do the numbers mean? twitter.com/i/lists/706696…
2/ A few points. This is not meant to be a definitive list but a useful and reliable one. Because someone isn't on there cld just mean I'm not familiar with them. Some people whose opinions I follow closely aren't on because they don't tweet actively. Others I don't ...
3/ have on because their feeds are mostly commentary or opinion or analysis, rather than the focus of the list. Obviously there's nothing wrong with those things. I'd be out of a job. It's just not what this list is for. It's basically just what I've cobbled together ...
4/ over the years. And again, the goal is that I want a good chance that some very knowledgable person will tweet about it each time new data becomes available on an election night. It's a really good list for that purpose.

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More from @joshtpm

2 Nov
It’s remarkable when you see these numbers in retrospect that people were so confident
Many psychological factors played into it. Denial. Sanity, etc. but Nate Silvers prediction in 2012 I think played a big role. The national horserace numbers were quite close. But Nate said Obama was a strong favorite. And he won. I think many took from that ...
2/ that models could determine a winner by computational firepower even if the horse race polls were pretty tight. And of course lots of models were saying a Clinton victory was essentially a mathematical certainty. Of course 538’s was different, only about 2:1 odds for Clinton.
Read 4 tweets
31 Oct
You wouldn’t know it but this “DEA raid” was on the office of a former high profile Fox News commentator who later got busted for sexual misconduct in his psychiatric practice. How you figure he ends up with a Hunter hard drive? washex.am/320ySb7
2/ So it seems that Hunter was so strung out on coke that he crisscrossed the country giving spare laptops and hard drive images to numerous Fox News stars and friends of President Trump. They say addicts indulge in risky behaviors but his certainly takes the cake.
3/ meet Keith ablow, Fox News psychiatrist talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/keith…
Read 11 tweets
31 Oct
Comical goofball stuff. HHS was planning a covid psa campaign with a ton of taxpayer money that was basically going to be campaign propaganda. It was supposed to land right before the election. As you can see here the theme was the best way to help America is to support Trump.
2/ there’s also this spreadsheet of possible celebs to be part of the campaign. The writer appears to be gop/incel adjacent. The whole is sneering but also kind of sad because the description of basically everyone they want is basically “hates Trump”
3/ there’s also this weird thing of saying what community they’re from, Hispanic, lbgt etc. and one of the categories is “super spreader” ... like maybe this was a way to make them more appealing to Trump?
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
This is a pretty wild statement and a pretty crazy chain of events. I really don’t know enough abt the particulars to understand post-2015 Glenn. But I do know that the defining thing abt Glenn has always been the Manichaean worldview. Humanity is divided into three groups.
2/ There’s Glenn. People who agree with Glenn. And then finally the liars and scoundrels and hacks who make up the rest of humanity. For centuries Christians have debated the eternal fate of those who’ve never had the gospel preached to them at all. They haven’t had ...
3/ the chance to hear the message. They haven’t rejected it. They’ve never had the chance. I don’t know how the comparable group is deemed in Glenn theology. Do people in Sudan or the rain forests of Brazil who’ve never heard of Glenn get classed amongst the good people or ...
Read 10 tweets
29 Oct
This is truly a sad, ridiculous descent into self-parody. For all my disagreements/acrimony with Glenn I always had to credit that he'd created a pretty great publication, one that has published lots of really stellar journalism, albeit sometimes from edit POVs I ...
2/ disagree with. Part of that credit was that I thought he still ran it, at least in some executive chairman kind of sense. Having to resign because they won't publish your nonsense would suggest otherwise. Here he announces that his colleagues/employees at the Intercept ...
3/ are simply more Democratic/establishment hacks doing the bidding of Joe Biden. I get not wanting to be edited. Of all people I get this. It's not happenstance that I ended up in the professional set up I did. But being edited isn't being censored. That's not how it ...
Read 5 tweets
27 Oct
the frequently expressed claim that public schools are remaining closed over the objections of parents is rather belied, at least in NYC. The Mayor is now resorting to bullying parents into returning since just over 20% have agreed to so far. nytimes.com/2020/10/26/nyr…
2/ A bit of context. The plan was that there were be opt in windows each term. So a few chances over the course of the year to opt for remote or hybrid learning. The the city abruptly changed the plan a few days ago saying that the opt in window in early November will be ...
3/ the only one. So as the city and state see numbers rising the Mayor and Schools Chancellor are saying parents either have to come back into the classrooms NOW or give up the ability to do so for the rest of the year. There's no way to see that as anything but compulsion to ...
Read 7 tweets

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