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Michael Grunwald

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3 Nov, 11 tweets, 3 min read

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323678484493983746

So...Florida is going to be close. It always is! Should we do a little back-of-the-envelope math? 1

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323678484493983746

R's have already gained a ton of votes on E-Day. They always do! At this rate they could end the day with a 200K-300K vote advantage over the Ds. Which ain't that much out of maybe 11.5M votes, but sure ain't nothing. 2

Of course, those numbers are just about who the voters are, not who they voted for. 3

If R's end the day with a 200K vote advantage, and Trump wins as many D's as Biden wins R's, and there are, say, 2.8M NPA voters, Biden would need to beat Trump by 7% among NPA's to win. 4

@ananavarro

That's pretty close to the polling. And it doesn't seem crazy to think there might be more Biden R's (like @ananavarro and @AlCardenasFL_DC and @fasanomike) than Trump D's. Then he'd need fewer NPA's. 5

But a lot of R's seem to be voting today. And if R's finish the day with a 300K advantage, it gets tougher for Biden. Then he needs to win NPA's by at least 10%, or get a bunch more crossovers. 6

There's no punchline here; I don't know anything you don't know. It's going to depend on how huge a margin R's can run up this afternoon, how big Biden can win with NPA's, and how many R's ditch Trump. 7

Although honestly, the election probably depends on the Philadelphia suburbs. It's hard to imagine FL tipping this. 8

Of course, stranger things have happened, and they usually happen here. So vote! It might come down to 537 of you. END

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323694620224720897

Here's a 1:30 update, R's now up 137K but still missing Miami, where turnout is apparently pretty heavy.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323694620224720897

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323714894143827975

Here's 2:30 p.m., now including Miami. R's still expanding their lead but not quite so quickly.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323714894143827975

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Just got off the phone with a Dem #'s guy who gave me a pretty plausible case for Biden getting 305 EVs.

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