My question: will we see total turnout rates increase this year compared to 2016? Not so sure. In 2016, 80.7% turnout of reg. voters; 414,528 votes, or 63.5% of those were mail ballots. As of this morning, SF had issued 536,667 mail ballots, and 333,783 had been returned (62.2%).
https://twitter.com/FitzTheReporter/status/1323742230776000518
For the 2020 turnout rate to be 80.7%, there would need would be 433,090 total votes cast, and 99,307 elex day voters (18.5% of total registered). In 2016, there were 151,437 votes cast on election day (30% of registered). Possible. Likely? No idea.
One additional piece: how many of the issued ballots will be returned on election day this year? In 2016, about 80k mail ballots were returned on/after election day. If it's similar this year (very plausbile), then SF could break turnout records with small elex day turnout.
Of course, I discovered an error in the first tweet. 414,528 total votes cast in 2016, and 63.5% of those were mail ballots (263,091). The error was in labeling that number rather than the math, which is still correct. SF needs about 100k more votes to beat 2016 turnout of 80.7%.
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