1) An election night thread. 
2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOT POLITICAL ADVICE.
3) Some background:
https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1323579720147951621
4) Some links:
538 blog: fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020…
Results: bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-…
Trading: ftx.com/president2020
538 blog: fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020…
Results: bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-…
Trading: ftx.com/president2020
5) Real results will start coming out in about 40 minutes, at 8am HKT = 7pm EST.
Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia close.
Of those, only Georgia is projected to be close.
Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia close.
Of those, only Georgia is projected to be close.
6) Initial results could be REALLY off this year:
about 100m (!!!) mail-in votes cast.
In some states, those are counted first, in others last.
Mail-in votes are heavily Biden, in-person Trump.
So you could see 66% --> 48% as more votes are counted.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-p…
about 100m (!!!) mail-in votes cast.
In some states, those are counted first, in others last.
Mail-in votes are heavily Biden, in-person Trump.
So you could see 66% --> 48% as more votes are counted.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-p…
7) BTC running up here on ESAs running up (S&P 500 futures).
Not sure what's causing the move, but best guess is most things are election related tonight.
Not sure what's causing the move, but best guess is most things are election related tonight.
8) If you have very strong opinions about who is going to win, you can still trade!
Trump 38%, Biden 62%.
ftx.com/president2020
Trump 38%, Biden 62%.
ftx.com/president2020
10) random comment: some of the BTC run-up just now may have been driven by some OKEx futures trades.
Blast from the past!
Blast from the past!
13) results will start coming out now!
14) Trump down on early results, seems like some Florida counties are slightly more Biden leaning than expected.
ftx.com/trade/TRUMP
ftx.com/trade/TRUMP
15) a warning about this: in 2016, Florida seemed to be Clinton outperforming until an hour *after* votes started reporting.
The panhandle reported last, and was a Trump outperform.
The panhandle reported last, and was a Trump outperform.
16) REMINDER:
it doesn't matter who's up in early votes, it matters who's outperforming vs those particular counties' expectations.
different counties report at different times, you have to adjust by which are reporting early.
it doesn't matter who's up in early votes, it matters who's outperforming vs those particular counties' expectations.
different counties report at different times, you have to adjust by which are reporting early.
18) TRUMP maybe outperforming in Miami
19) Be careful about Georgia results tonight, they may be missing Atlanta:
https://twitter.com/ben_brasch/status/1323778549229228034?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1323778549229228034%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2020-election-results-coverage%2F
20) Florida looking increasingly good for Trump
21) Miami might be missing some or many absentee ballots, unclear
23) ok here's a bizarre fact
it seems that Florida might be reporting in-person early votes by not mail early votes???
unsure.
it seems that Florida might be reporting in-person early votes by not mail early votes???
unsure.
24) A note on FTX TRUMP markets:
Poloniex has listed TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE which are tied to them.
so some volume is printing off the exchange.
poloniex.com/exchange/USDT_…
Poloniex has listed TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE which are tied to them.
so some volume is printing off the exchange.
poloniex.com/exchange/USDT_…
25) It seems like TRUMP underperforming in non-Florida states maybe, though really depends on what's reporting so far.
26) a bunch of states closing now
27) not a ton of new results, but prediction markets are moving around a lot
28) we've entered the "results slowly trickle in, no huge updates" phase of the night.
FTX now above 50% for TRUMP
ftx.com/trade/TRUMP
FTX now above 50% for TRUMP
ftx.com/trade/TRUMP
29) Remember: Georgia returns are weird because Atlanta hasn't really reported yet
30) about 20m contracts have traded on FTX today between TRUMP, BIDEN, and tokens.
ftx.com/president2020
ftx.com/president2020
31) So far today is looking pretty bad for confidence and pretty good for people who used words like "I don't know" and "it might be close" and "this could drag on"
32) take that, people who were overconfident!
33) I'd love someone to create a compendium of tweets expressing confidence that someone would win the election
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