Thread by @TsedaleLemma

A war against the member of the federation is an epic tragedy! But not unexpected.

@AbiyAhmedAli's grand ambition of nation building experiment failed spectacularly, just a few months into its plan.

As such,losing his political capital & support base was a natural outcome. 1/4

But out of the ashes of this failure morphed not a democratic experiment, but an increasingly transactional political dispensation. Quickly it turned Abiy's version of nation building into a deal b/n him & his allies based on who gets crushed & who gets a seat at the table. 2/4

Sadly, the price tag for this transactional political order keeps skyrocketing; what started by jailing formidable opponents of Abiy's failed nation building project has now morphed into a civil war to get rid of TPLF, a powerful opponent, "once & for all" using the military. 3/4

But make no mistake, this isn't "a surgical operation" which will quickly end TPLF, but an epistemic rupture of the Federation as we know it. When it's over, & regardless of its outcome, Abiy's failed ambition of a nation building project will be irreparably dented! 4/4

Tragedy!