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David Manel Profile picture
@DavidManel
Nov 4, 2020 • 21 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Fascinating pattern Miami-Dade & many Texas counties '16 to'20:
Turnout substantially increases
Trump raw vote substantially increases
Biden matches Clinton's raw votes
- Close to 100% of "new" voters seemingly vote Trump..for example Miami-Dade 1/5
Miami-Dade
Clinton 624146 - Biden 617201
'16 Trump 333999 - '20 Trump 532409
+191463 Turnout, +198408 Trump vote 2/
Hidalgo, Texas
'16 Clinton 118,809 > '20 Biden 127,391
'16 Trump 48,642 > '20 Trump 89925
+49865 Turnout; +41,283 Trump vote 3/
Zapata, Texas:
'16 Clinton 2063 > '20 Biden 2032
'20 Trump 1029 > '20 Trump 1820
+760 Turnout; +791 Trump vote 4/
Starr, Texas
'16 Clinton 9289 > '20 Biden 9099
'20 Trump 2224 > '20 Trump 8224
+5810 Turnout; +6000 Trump vote
Pattern present in many additional Texas counties 5/
Maverick County, Texas
Clinton 10397 - Biden 8324
'16 Trump 2816 - '20 Trump 6881
+1992 Turnout; +4065 Trump Votes
Cameron county, Texas
Clinton 59,402 - Biden 63,732
'16 Trump 29472 - '20 Trump 48834
+23692 Turnout, +19362 Trump votes
Frio, Texas
Clinton 2444 - Biden 2421
'16 Trump 1856 - '20 Trump 2812
+933 Turnout; +956 Trump Vote
Glades County, Florida
Clinton 1271 - Biden 1384
'16 Trump 2996 - '20 Trump 3781
+898 Turnout; +785 Trump Vote
Okeechobee, Florida
Clinton 3959 - Biden 4380
'16 Trump 9356 - '20 Trump 11460
+2525 Turnout; +2104 Trump Vote
Karnes, Texas
Clinton 1145 - Biden 1220
'16 Trump 2965 - '20 Trump 3959
+1069 Turnout; +994 Trump Vote
Duval, Texas
Clinton 2783 - Biden 2573
'16 Trump 1316 - '16 Trump 2442
+916 Turnout; +1126 Trump Vote
Lea County, New Mexico
Clinton 3939 - Biden 4007
'16 Trump 12495 - '20 Trump 16475
(G. Johnson had 1098 in '16)
+4051 Turnout (just Trump v. Dem); +3980 Trump Votes
Webb County, Texas
Clinton 42307 - Biden 41820
'16 Trump 12947 - '20 Trump 25898
+12464 Turnout; +12951 Trump Votes
Live Oak, Texas
Clinton 742 - Biden 819
'16 Trump 3464 - '20 Trump 4198
+811 Turnout; +734 Trump Votes
Bee County, Texas
Clinton 3444 - Biden 3280
'16 Trump 4744 - '20 Trump 5999
+1091 Turnout; + 1255 Trump Votes
Refugio, Texas
Clinton 1034 - Biden 1108
'16 Trump 1830 - '20 Trump 2210
+454 Turnout; +380 Trump Votes
Uvalde County, Texas
Clinton 3867 - Biden 4066
'16 Trump 4865 - '20 Trump 6160
+1564 Turnout; +1325 Trump Votes
Back to New Mexico,
Eddy County
Clinton 5033 (Johnson 1275)- Biden 5356
'16 Trump 13147 - '20 Trump 17355
+3257 Turnout; +4208 Trump Votes
Sutton County, Texas
Clinton 313 - Biden 322
'16 Trump 1075 - '20 Trump 1222
+156 Turnout; +147 Trump Votes
Val Verde, Texas
Clinton 6964 (573 Johnson)- Biden 6401
'16 Trump 5890 - '20 Trump 7839 (81% counted)
+813 Turnout; +1949 Trump Votes

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More from @DavidManel

David Manel Profile picture
Dec 7, 2020
THREAD:
It is increasingly clear that Trump’s large and unexpected surge in the S. Texas/Rio Grande Valley is historically unique.

While much attention is paid to baseless claims of a rigged election, the most interesting story of the 2020 election occurred in S. Texas.
For this study I looked at the presidential voting data from the 206 media markets in the US from 1980-2020.

I used media markets because the data is publicly available and goes back to 1980. There are other advantages, as well.
Such as, media markets tend to create a sense of shared community or identity across larger regional areas than counties.

Here is a link to the data: dailykos.com/stories/2018/2…
Read 18 tweets
David Manel Profile picture
Nov 30, 2020
THREAD: We know there was a very large & unexpected shift to Trump in Miami-Dade & the Rio Grande Valley counties in t 2020 presidential election.

Previously, I tried to get a sense for how rare it is to see a shift of this magnitude in those counties.

Another way to appreciate what happened in Miami-Dade and RGV is to compare their 2020 results with every county in the United States (Alaska excluded) across multiple elections.

To that end, I examined county level data for every presidential election since 2000
I looked at two measures:

1. % increase in raw votes for a party's presidential candidate from one election to next

(So, if a Rep. presidential candidate received 10 votes in Year A, & 4 years later the Rep. candidate receives 20 votes, we'd say that is a 100% increase)
Read 18 tweets
David Manel Profile picture
Nov 9, 2020
THREAD: I’m still very interested in Trump’s remarkable success in Miami-Dade and Rio Grande Valley/Texas border. The explanations given in the press...
for his gains include the appeal of Trump’s hyper-masculine persona among Latino males, fear of Biden’s position on oil and gas, fear of Biden’s “socialism”, Democrats "forgetting" how to “talk” to Latinos, Democrats taking the Hispanic vote for granted, etc.
If reasons given are accurate, wouldn’t we expect a grand defection from the Biden ticket similar to that of the Reagan Democrats in Macomb County, Michigan in 1984? There, Mondale dropped to 97K votes from Carter’s 120K in 1980. Meanwhile Reagan increased from 154K to 194K.
Read 25 tweets

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