Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
David Manel Profile picture
David Manel
@DavidManel
Hobbyist. Professor of Political Science at CCAC. Clawhammer banjo enthusiast, Go (Baduk) and #GoGreen. RT are not endorsements
Dec 7, 2020 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
THREAD:
It is increasingly clear that Trump’s large and unexpected surge in the S. Texas/Rio Grande Valley is historically unique.

While much attention is paid to baseless claims of a rigged election, the most interesting story of the 2020 election occurred in S. Texas. For this study I looked at the presidential voting data from the 206 media markets in the US from 1980-2020.

I used media markets because the data is publicly available and goes back to 1980. There are other advantages, as well.
Nov 30, 2020 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
THREAD: We know there was a very large & unexpected shift to Trump in Miami-Dade & the Rio Grande Valley counties in t 2020 presidential election.

Previously, I tried to get a sense for how rare it is to see a shift of this magnitude in those counties.

Another way to appreciate what happened in Miami-Dade and RGV is to compare their 2020 results with every county in the United States (Alaska excluded) across multiple elections.

To that end, I examined county level data for every presidential election since 2000
Nov 9, 2020 • 25 tweets • 4 min read
THREAD: I’m still very interested in Trump’s remarkable success in Miami-Dade and Rio Grande Valley/Texas border. The explanations given in the press... for his gains include the appeal of Trump’s hyper-masculine persona among Latino males, fear of Biden’s position on oil and gas, fear of Biden’s “socialism”, Democrats "forgetting" how to “talk” to Latinos, Democrats taking the Hispanic vote for granted, etc.
Nov 4, 2020 • 21 tweets • 2 min read
Fascinating pattern Miami-Dade & many Texas counties '16 to'20:
Turnout substantially increases
Trump raw vote substantially increases
Biden matches Clinton's raw votes
- Close to 100% of "new" voters seemingly vote Trump..for example Miami-Dade 1/5 Miami-Dade
Clinton 624146 - Biden 617201
'16 Trump 333999 - '20 Trump 532409
+191463 Turnout, +198408 Trump vote 2/