Thread by @nairgur

@in_morningstar Indian Economy in a Funk @sonalvarma10, @pranjulb, Samiran Chakraborty, @Ajay_Bagga at #MICIN, #MICDigital

#MICIN #MICDigital Services PMI, Rural Demand increasing but 7.5 mil jobs lost in Urban areas, Income inequality increasing, coupled with 10yrs investment stagnation and Balance Sheet issues of NBFCs, Households, etc. not able to spend to get economy up. Demand Side problem

Dip in India more so recovery also will be sharper. But for extended period our growth will lag global. Maybe Mar 22 we are back to Mar 20. Today we are 95% of pre-covid but that was one of worst points of our economy. So not encouraging sign.

#MICIN #MICDigital India's Domestic Demand & Demographic a ++. Last decade missed increasing % Middle Class, stuck at 12 - 15%. Have not been able to create more urban jobs. Suggested Focus on construction => maximum multiplier will come out of this & provide impetus to economy

#MICIN #MICDigital Indian informal sector contributes 50% but not talked about. Severely disrupted. More than demonetization. So with this sector down but demand (food/clothing etc) remaining same inflation could go up.

#MICIN #MICDigital Monetary policy done well. RBI ahead of the curve. Fisc needs to do more - disinvest and invest in new assets, bank recapitalization. Reforms need followup. GST, Insolvency, DTC. Seize new opportunities, rejigging of global supply chains