1. The hot take that "D's need to learn to talk to the other side of the electorate" is absolutely the WRONG take.
I mean my god. Biden, Lincoln, the outside groups: they threw the best persuasion messaging in the history of persuasion campaigns at them.
What Ds need to do is
2. is come to terms that when it comes to the electorate, the very 1st thing that matters is party ID, and this includes Indie leaners. This data is from June, but last night's results make clear that it reflects the actual results as well. Right leaning Indies- which make up
3. a disproportionate share of the overall Indie pool, are closet Reps: they are not persuadable no matter how much you cater to them or whether or not Cindy McCain is on your side. The Biden campaign, all of the Senate Dems, and the House Dem candidates bet their candidacies
4. on a couple of assumptions most imp is that they should focus their arguments on issues & not on nationalized referendum campaigns, which is the way that the GOP runs their down-ballot races. Also, in case you haven't noticed, Trump lies directly to people bc he knows they are
5. stupid & will never find out. Did I state that plainly enough? You want to know why Rs are willing non-college voters? They tell them what they want to hear. The Ds talk to everyone like they have a master's degree. Trump talks to them as they are: Walmart shoppers. I realize
6. that sounds elitist and condensing- its meant to. Some 60+ million of them just cast ballots for Donald Fucking Trump & if you ask them why, probably 40 million of them will tell you reasons that are literally exact opposite truths like "he drains the swamp" or "he's a
7. "successful businessman" or my personal fave, "he's the only honest man in Washington." If Dems want to learn how to "reach voters on the other side" then they need to realize that these people would tell you "yes" they read news & then report "The National Enquirer" as their
8. as their paper of choice. Now, IDK if its just that I'm one of fewer academics that come from the real, unpolished, bottom 50% world, and not the romanticized bullshit painted by J.D. Vance of working-class America- the real one where people have 3 kids from 3 different women
9. and get angry when 1 of them is reticent to let them visit their kid when they get out jail. AGAIN. In THAT working class, sexism, racism, xenophobia, and bigotry run rampant: and not only are these "isms" prevalent, there is a belief that they shouldn't have had to be buried
10. (see how that relates back to their culture war champion?) That the old days were far superior bc they could just call someone a f&g or slap their female co-worker in the ass is they were in the mood. There was a hierarchy, a caste as @Isabelwilkerson notes, and they were at
11. the top of it. Everything else might be a shit sandwich, their job, their house, their marriage, their debt, but that hierarchy & their place at the top of it- as Wilkerson notes in her book, that shit was SOLID.
And now its gone.
And do you know who took it?
The Democrats
12. So, you're not appealing to that. Anyone looking at Maine senate, the state with the most Indies in the nation, but also an electorate that is predominately white and lower educated & thinks we just need a better argument is coming at this the wrong way.
Don't get me wrong-
13. you gotta change the voting behavior of these voters, but you're not going to do it via tweaking issues or talking about this and not that.
Its going to take a complete and total overall of the entire electioneering approach of the party.
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The entire world is looking at America like WTF and most Americans still have no idea anything is wrong.
Here's why:
🚨Democracy on Autopilot
America expanded the right to vote without building the civic culture democracy requires
This week brought another round of buried headlines declaring that Americans don’t understand their own government.
The latest national civics assessment shows just 22% of eighth-grade students scoring “proficient” in civics, while roughly 31% fall below basic competency. Surveys of college students find that about 60% cannot identify the term length of members of Congress, and adult civics quizzes routinely show large shares of Americans unable to answer basic questions about how the federal government works.
On social media we are seeing one common theme from foreigners:
WTF is wrong with you, America?!
To which I am forced to reply with the sad reality that most Americans have still no idea that any of this is even happening.
No, really. Go out in the world. Do you a get a sense people realize they are living through what is shaping up to be a historical clusterfuck of epic proportions. One commentator said the guy behind him in line at the airport didn’t understand why the TSA lines were so long, so he told him its from the shutdown.
Dude said “what shutdown?!”
Watch Good Morning America and you would never know anything is wrong. Few Americans watch news of any type, but when they do, they watch “news” that would be in the culture section in any other country.
Every time new data drops that reconfirm old findings about America’s civic crisis, the reaction is always the same: hand-wringing and a call for more civics classes. The fact is, just 5 states fail to mandate K-12 civics and yet 60% of America adults still don’t know the House of Representatives is a 2 year term, so increasing access to civics in the remaining states ain’t gonna fix it.
🚨🚨🚨A List of Grievances
Let Facts Be Submitted to a Candid World
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be altered for light and transient causes; and experience shows that people are more disposed to suffer while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by altering the systems to which they are accustomed.
But when a long train of abuses and usurpations reveals a design to elevate one man above the laws and institutions of a free republic—when the people’s votes are treated as obstacles, the rule of law as inconvenience, the public treasury as private opportunity, and the grave powers of taxation and war as instruments of personal ambition—it becomes the right of the people to speak plainly of the injuries they have endured, and through their votes to seek redress.
For a free people cannot long remain free when leaders impose new burdens upon them without candor, levy economic taxes upon them under false pretenses, and risk their lives and security through rash decisions made without the sober judgment such power demands.
🚨The Pentagon’s Armageddon Problem
When Christian Nationalism Runs the U.S. Military
Pete Hegseth's White Christian Nationalist wet dream was to start war in the the Middle East to bring on biblical apocalypse.
And here we are. 🧵
As American troops were prepped to attack Iran, some were told something rather chilling.
According to complaints filed with a military watchdog group, soldiers were briefed that the conflict unfolding in the Middle East was part of “God’s divine plan.” Some commanders reportedly referenced the Book of Revelation and framed the war in prophetic terms.
Think about that for a second.
American soldiers — sent halfway around the world with rifles and drones — being told they are participating in biblical prophecy.
This isn’t a fringe sermon happening in a megachurch somewhere. These are the kinds of ideas circulating inside the same political movement that now controls the Pentagon.
And the man currently running it, Pete Hegseth, has spent years promoting exactly the worldview that makes that framing possible.
A couple days ago I wrote about the first lever Iran holds in this war: the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran disrupts shipping through that narrow channel between Iran and Oman, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply gets caught in the crossfire. Oil spikes. Shipping markets panic. The global economy starts sweating. That’s leverage.
But Hormuz is only half the story. Because there’s another vulnerability sitting right across the Persian Gulf—one that almost nobody outside the region knows about.
The modern cities of the Gulf are built in the middle of a motherfucking desert. Dubai. Abu Dhabi. Doha. Kuwait City. Manama.
Like this kind of desert!!!
Cities like these couldn’t exist before modern infrastructure. They exist because massive industrial plants along the coast turn seawater, the only water there, into drinking water. Take those machines away, and the system holding these cities together starts to break down frighteningly fast. Which means that in a regional war, those machines become something else entirely: targets.
🚨🚨🚨Shit is About to Hit The Fan in the Strait of Hormuz:
For 60 years, Middle East Experts Have Feared Exactly What Trump Just Did
There are a lot of people in the Middle East tonight who are staring at their phones and wondering what tomorrow is going to bring.
Airspace is closing. Flights are being rerouted. Oil markets are jumping. Somewhere right now a tanker captain is trying to figure out whether it is safe to move through the narrow strip of water that carries a fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Somewhere else a sailor on an American warship is getting briefed about what it means to enter that same strip of water after Iran has warned that any vessel attempting to pass could be attacked.
For most Americans this still feels distant, abstract, like another foreign policy story unfolding somewhere far away. But the truth is that the next phase of this crisis is likely to unfold in one very specific place.
A place that most Americans had probably never heard of until this week.
The Strait of Hormuz.
You see that teeny-tiny spot. That’s just a 21-mile stretch through which world peace has longed hinged.
And the decisions being made around that narrow stretch of water may determine whether this moment becomes a contained geopolitical crisis or something much larger and far more dangerous.
Donald Trump ran for president promising something very simple: no wars.
🚨🚨🚨 🧵You Build the Fences First
Infrastructure for Tyranny
In 1933, the Nazis did not hide Dachau.
They invited outsiders to see it.
Foreign correspondents were escorted through the newly opened Dachau Concentration Camp and shown neat barracks, orderly rows of bunks, and prisoners moving through structured routines. Guards stood upright and disciplined. The grounds appeared controlled, even efficient. What visitors saw looked administrative.
The violence — already present — was kept out of sight.
Early outside impressions could therefore be framed in bureaucratic language: order, discipline, containment, political detention. The regime understood something essential: if you shape what observers see, you shape how institutions are understood.
And in 1933, Dachau was not yet a symbol of industrialized mass murder. It was a political detention center. Its prisoners were primarily communists, social democrats, trade unionists, journalists, and critics of the new regime.
The Nazi’s genocidal machinery came later.
First came the infrastructure.
To understand what that infrastructure meant in practice, it helps to look at one of the men who passed through Dachau in its earliest weeks.
Hans Beimler, a Communist member of the Reichstag, was arrested in April 1933 and taken to Dachau shortly after the camp opened. His experience bore little resemblance to the orderly image shown to visitors.