1. The hot take that "D's need to learn to talk to the other side of the electorate" is absolutely the WRONG take.
I mean my god. Biden, Lincoln, the outside groups: they threw the best persuasion messaging in the history of persuasion campaigns at them.
What Ds need to do is
2. is come to terms that when it comes to the electorate, the very 1st thing that matters is party ID, and this includes Indie leaners. This data is from June, but last night's results make clear that it reflects the actual results as well. Right leaning Indies- which make up
3. a disproportionate share of the overall Indie pool, are closet Reps: they are not persuadable no matter how much you cater to them or whether or not Cindy McCain is on your side. The Biden campaign, all of the Senate Dems, and the House Dem candidates bet their candidacies
4. on a couple of assumptions most imp is that they should focus their arguments on issues & not on nationalized referendum campaigns, which is the way that the GOP runs their down-ballot races. Also, in case you haven't noticed, Trump lies directly to people bc he knows they are
5. stupid & will never find out. Did I state that plainly enough? You want to know why Rs are willing non-college voters? They tell them what they want to hear. The Ds talk to everyone like they have a master's degree. Trump talks to them as they are: Walmart shoppers. I realize
6. that sounds elitist and condensing- its meant to. Some 60+ million of them just cast ballots for Donald Fucking Trump & if you ask them why, probably 40 million of them will tell you reasons that are literally exact opposite truths like "he drains the swamp" or "he's a
7. "successful businessman" or my personal fave, "he's the only honest man in Washington." If Dems want to learn how to "reach voters on the other side" then they need to realize that these people would tell you "yes" they read news & then report "The National Enquirer" as their
8. as their paper of choice. Now, IDK if its just that I'm one of fewer academics that come from the real, unpolished, bottom 50% world, and not the romanticized bullshit painted by J.D. Vance of working-class America- the real one where people have 3 kids from 3 different women
9. and get angry when 1 of them is reticent to let them visit their kid when they get out jail. AGAIN. In THAT working class, sexism, racism, xenophobia, and bigotry run rampant: and not only are these "isms" prevalent, there is a belief that they shouldn't have had to be buried
10. (see how that relates back to their culture war champion?) That the old days were far superior bc they could just call someone a f&g or slap their female co-worker in the ass is they were in the mood. There was a hierarchy, a caste as @Isabelwilkerson notes, and they were at
11. the top of it. Everything else might be a shit sandwich, their job, their house, their marriage, their debt, but that hierarchy & their place at the top of it- as Wilkerson notes in her book, that shit was SOLID.
And now its gone.
And do you know who took it?
The Democrats
12. So, you're not appealing to that. Anyone looking at Maine senate, the state with the most Indies in the nation, but also an electorate that is predominately white and lower educated & thinks we just need a better argument is coming at this the wrong way.
Don't get me wrong-
13. you gotta change the voting behavior of these voters, but you're not going to do it via tweaking issues or talking about this and not that.
Its going to take a complete and total overall of the entire electioneering approach of the party.
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Shit has hit the fan in LA and other Blue cities as the realities of rounding up millions of people, many of whom have lived in the U.S. for years or came as children and have grown up American begin to take root. thecycle.substack.com/p/the-cycle-mo…
For those of us who’ve spent the last 6 months discussing how Trump would use mass deportations to create chaos is the Blue states and then use that chaos as an excuse to declare a national emergency and seize total power, things are right on schedule.
Although MAGA seems to think Democrats created the illegal immigration problem, the issues with illegal immigration dates back decades and is a byproduct of decisions made by the last 8 or 9 presidents combined.
Here’s the truth they don’t teach in high school civics or scream about on Fox News: America didn’t always have a “border crisis.”
🧵There are serious implications to the end of Elon and Trump’s partnership.
I have mentioned before, even having Elon exit stage left was great news for us, but having him kill off Trump’s Big “Beautiful” Bill.
Well, that could change everything.
Not only may we end up in a 2026 scenario where a major player (and his money) have removed themselves from the game, now we might even see Elon actively undermine Republicans up and down the ballot.
I would forfeit every Christmas gift I get from now to the end of time if we could only get Elon spending and working against Trump.
But wait….because it gets even better!!
🧵Trump's Executive Orders Serve One Sinister Purpose:
Inside Team Trump's Shrewd Strategy to Kill Democracy
Many times I’ve asked you to imagine what it would be like, what your thoughts, feelings, and beliefs about contemporary America would be like, if you were one of the 100 million plus Americans who can’t name their own state’s senators.
Vox dropped a recent piece that is firewalled, but I want you to read this short excerpt from their reporting:
Now, don’t focus on the particular demographics of this particular disenchanted voter.
She could be anyone: a man, a woman, old, young, Black or White. Believe it or not, there are even college educated Americans who have this kind of limited, simplistic frame for interpreting political events.
🧵STAT of the Week
Voters Have No Idea What Democrats Stand For
I want to show you something very important.
You know I talk non-stop about how Republicans have intentionally trashed the Democratic Party’s brand, but today I want to focus on how Democrats help them get away with it.
Last week David Shor from Blue Rose Research released their election autopsy. You can find the entire presentation this slide comes from here in a conversation between Ezra Klein and David Shor.
But I want to focus on just one key chart in Shor’s data, this. 👇
And I want to talk about it differently than Shor does in his interview. He doesn’t even notice what I am am going to show you.
🧵What is the Overton Window and Why Is Elon Musk Breaking It?
Elon Musk Bought Twitter to Make the Unacceptable Acceptable. And It's Working.
So many political science terms, so little time.
As I meet with more and more people from the upper tiers of Democratic Party politics it is becoming clear to me that there are key findings from peer-reviewed political science research that simply never trickled down to the general public.
Long time subscribers to this distinguished ‘Stack should know two of those political science concepts well by now: 1. the strength of party identification on public opinion and vote choice for the vast majority of the electorate and 2. the stunningly low levels of civic knowledge of American voters.
🧵STAT(S) Of the Week:
Never Interrupt Your Enemy When They Are Making a Mistake
I think, and I believe many of you must agree, it is best to live and strategize in the world we actually live in and not the one we wished we lived in.
Unfortunately, in the real world, even after two months of the terrible headlines we have been reading, the average public still likes Donald Trump way more than Democrats.
He still beats us by 20 points!
As I explained in a prior post, some of that low approval rating is coming from Democrats who don’t think the party is doing enough and saw the CR fight as the first chance to put up a fight.
Now, I want you to keep our 29% favorability rating in mind while considering last week and the decision by 9 senate Democrats to vote for the CR rather than shut down the government.