We don't get to replay election night next week, but it would look considerably different with final vote totals rather than the haphazard release of results yesterday caused in part by the pandemic. These public optics of election night matter. /1
But the other thing that matters is when the networks call a presidential race. The decision desks have been appropriately cautious given the odd patterns by which vote totals are revealed thanks to the pandemic. /2
If the networks and media companies say tomorrow or Friday that Biden has enough votes to be President, it will be very hard for Trump to keep up his small bore lawsuits and keep fighting. It's a powerful thing to see a presidential race called. Just ask Al Gore. /3
And this I think explains the flurry of Trump lawsuits, some of them barely sensible or comprehensible, seeking to slow down the ballot count. They are flailing for a strategy to avoid Biden being declared as having at least 270 electoral college votes. /4
The problem is that virtually none of the lawsuits has even the potential to stop the counting, and once the counting is done, decision desks will do their thing. Then the public dynamic changes a lot. /5
Trump may never concede in a traditional way, but the question is if he grumbles his way out of the White House claiming rigging or does something more extreme. And a lot will depend on other Republican leaders. /6

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More from @rickhasen

4 Nov
Trump is claiming victory in particular states based on partial returns, ignoring the potential for a shift to Biden. He's going state by state though and has not yet said he's won the election. (The race is too early to call)
Trump is saying his opponents want to go to court. It is Trump that has been going to court.
There it is: Trump says: "This is a fraud on the American public...Frankly we did win this election." He wants "voting" to stop but there is no more voting. He says he's going to the Supreme Court.
This is profoundly dangerous talk. Votes are still being tallied.
Read 5 tweets
3 Nov
This has been an election day just the way I like it. Kinda slow on the election mess-up/long lines/intimidation/suppression/fraud rumor front.
Remarkable given what it took to get to today.
I'm not saying things can't go south still in the counting and the aftermath.
But last week I had to talk down a lot of people worried about violence and intimidation at polls, long lines, and tons of machine breakdowns.
The biggest election day failure is from USPS to timely deliver the ballots, and we can put the blame squarely on DeJoy.
Thanks to @johnkruzel who has been all over this story
Read 4 tweets
3 Nov
"Rudy Giuliani went silent, even though a reporter sweetened the deal by agreeing to hear him out on the Hunter Biden intrigue, a current Giuliani obsession."
"Sen. Ben Sasse didn’t respond to a DM. Chris Christie didn’t return a text. A message to the spokesman for Sen. Josh Hawley, an up-and-comer in the party, went unanswered."
"Sen. Lindsey Graham didn’t return a call after POLITICO left a voicemail for him."
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
Going to start a list of the ways that Republican lawmakers and election officials have needlessly made it harder to vote during COVID. Feel free to add on here.
1. Ohio SOS Frank LaRose opposing drop boxes while claiming his hands were tied.
2. TX Gov. Abbott reversing on boxes.
3. Pa. legislators and North Carolina legislators going all the way to the Supreme Court to try to stop extension of receipt of mail-in ballots mailed by election day.
4. Alabama SOS Merrill fighting against allowing counties to offer curbside voting for immunocompromised voters
5. South Carolina not challenging judicial elimination of witness signature during primaries, but challenging (all the way to the Supreme Court) same rule applied in general election; and doing so after instructions told voters no signature needed
Read 15 tweets
23 Oct
I've been calling on my conservative friends to condemn Leonard Leo, one of the key players in building the Federalist Society and promoting Trump's judges to the federal courts, for backing a group trying to suppress the vote. But now there's evidence of Leo's self-dealing. /1
Here's the piece @Dahlialithwick and I wrote @Slate in May on how same people pushing conservative judges for the court were spawning more voter fraud myths through the "Honest Elections Project" backed by Leo to defend laws making it harder to vote. slate.com/news-and-polit… /2
Then @Dahlialithwick and I followed up in this @Slate piece showing same people providing financial backing to get three former Bush lawyers from Bush v. Gore on Supreme Court are pushing legal theories going to SCOTUS aimed at suppressing the vote. /3 slate.com/news-and-polit…
Read 9 tweets
22 Oct
This Tom Cotton guy makes an empirical claim that the reason we have long lines is because of a shortage of volunteers. I say reports show other reasons, such as slow voter registration databases. I ask for receipts, and he says he won't provide proof of his claim.
It reminds me of when @JaneMayerNYer asked von Spakovsky why he would not provide me evidence that a Brooklyn grand jury report showed voter impersonation fraud. He told her he wasn't my "research assistant." When we got the report, it showed no such fraud.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/…
And to be clear, I'm following problems with our election process now all day, every day. If there's a problem somewhere with a lack of volunteers causing long lines I'd like to get the word out to get more volunteers. But everything I've seen suggests this is not the problem.
Read 4 tweets

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