Thread by @JacobRubashkin

A brief thread on Georgia runoff elections -- may have something much longer on all this in next issue but wanted to get some thoughts down (thread 1/x):

Georgia is the only state where general elections for federal office are subject to an absolute majority requirement.

If no candidate receives 50%+1 votes, the top-two vote getters advance to a January 5 runoff. This year, there will be at least one Senate runoff in Georgia, in the special election to replace Sen. Isakson. Democrat Raphael Warnock won 33% of the vote, Sen. Loeffler 26%.

There may also be a runoff in the regular US Senate election, where Sen. David Perdue is in danger of falling below 50% and being forced into a runoff with Democrat Jon Ossoff.

The two elections would happen simultaneously.

This system has been in place since the mid-1960s.

No Democrat has been elected statewide in Georgia at all since 2006. But Georgia runoffs have been particularly unkind to Democrats.

The Georgia SoS keeps records of elections back to 1988. In those 30 years, there have been 7 general election runoffs. Democrats are 1-7...

The bad luck begins in 1992, when incumbent Democratic Sen. Wyche Fowler falls just short of 50 percent in his re-election campaign against GOP nominee Paul Coverdell.

In the general, he leads 49.2 - 47.7%.
In the runoff, he loses to Coverdell, who wins 50.7% to his 49.3%.

That same year, Democrats lose another statewide runoff, for a seat on the Public Service Commission. Republican Bobby Baker takes 48.3% to Democrat John Collins' 47.6% in the first round, but Baker wins an easy 56.8% - 43.2% victory in the runoff.

1998 is the last time a Dem wins a statewide runoff. Lauren "Bubba" McDonald is appointed to a seat on the PSC by Gov. Zell Miller and faces Republican Jim Cole in a special election.

Round 1: McDonald 49.6-42.1%
Round 2: McDonald 65.7-34.3%

McDonald later becomes a Republican.

In 2006, David Burgess, the first African American to serve on the Georgia PSC, faces Republican Chuck Eaton for his seat.

Burgess places first in the November general, 48.8-46.3%. But Eaton wins in the runoff, 51.8-48.2%.

2008 is the big one that sticks in everyone's mind.

US Senator Saxby Chambliss faces an spirited challenge from state Rep. Jim Martin. As Obamamania sweeps across the nation, Martin (46.8%) holds Chambliss to 49.8%, forcing a runoff.

In the Dec. 2 runoff, Chambliss wins 57-43%.

Ask anyone about Georgia runoffs, and they will bring up 2008, a great year for Democrats nationwide, as evidence for why Democrats can't win in GA. It still comes up in conversation.

(Here's a photo of Martin campaigning in the runoff with TI, Ludacris, and Jeezy.)

There's not another runoff for a decade (and remember that Democrats aren't winning any statewide races outright either).

In 2018, Brian Kemp narrowly avoids a runoff with Stacey Abrams, winning 50.2% of the vote.

But GOP SecState nominee Brad Raffensperger isn't as lucky.

Raffensperger and Chuck Eaton, the Public Service Commissioner from 2006, are forced into runoffs against their Democratic opponents, former US Rep. John Barrow and Lindy Miller, respectively.

Here's where things get interesting.

In '08, the conventional wisdom was that Martin fell apart in the runoff because Dems had already won big in November and didn't feel motivated to turn out again.

In 2018, Democrats won big too (though not in Georgia), so you might imagine voters similarly uninterested.

But that's not what happened. Despite the runoff taking place in December after big Democratic wins nationwide, and despite neither Barrow nor Miller having 1/100th of the star power of Stacey Abrams, who was no longer on the ticket boosting turnout, neither race went "2008."

In the SecState race, the first round saw Raffensperger win 49.1% to Barrow's 48.7%.

In the runoff, Raffensperger won just 51.9% to Barrow's 48.1%.

In the PSC race, Eaton won 49.7% to Miller's 47.6%.
In the runoff, he won just 51.8% to Miller's 48.2%.

While Democrats lost both races, they were incredibly heartened by the fact that both races remained very close, despite it being a December runoff and no Stacey Abrams on the top of the ticket. It makes them think that the next time, they'll be in position to win a runoff.

With the Senate majority potentially coming down to these two runoffs (if Perdue drops below 50%), we will see the most expensive runoff probably in US history. No cost spared by either party.

The CW is that Loeffler and Perdue would be heavy favorites given history.

But with Biden potentially winning Georgia (the first Dem since 1992 to do so) things may be shifting in the Peach State. 2018 showed that Democrats would turn out even for lower-profile special elections. And these contests will most certainly not be low-profile. We'll see!

Decided not to wait till next issue and just get a first cut out tonight -- live in the moment!

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1324215994726916098