A metaphor for the likelihood of voter fraud, for people who insist that it's a conspiracy theory, or there's no evidence of it.
(1/7)
Suppose Amazon wanted to know how many packages it had. Packages were kept in warehouses all over the country. The system was different in every warehouse.
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Some people need to move packages around, and there's a list of who is allowed to do that in each warehouse. But if you go in and say you're that person, nobody checks. If someone else has already done that for you when you arrive, you just get another package.
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Some packages get driven around by people in their own cars, some get moved around by the post office, some by volunteers or low paid government employees, and in each case they're largely unmonitored - there's no clear record of which ones left or arrived.
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Packages are, by common consent, valuable for people to take. But nobody investigates closely what happens in each place, and very rarely are package thieves caught.
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For what package system other than "votes" would this be considered a reliable and acceptable system?
For what important corporate outcome, if you proposed this setup as a manager, would you not be fired?
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If someone told you there was no evidence of package fraud, how plausible would that claim be?
(7/7)
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I am increasingly convinced that one of the worst societal choices the west made was deciding that housing should be a vehicle for generating investment wealth, rather than something that stays as cheap as possible.
The related problem was trying to square the circle of "house prices should go up" and "housing should be 'affordable'" by subsidising loans for housing, which just makes the cost problem worse.
"Affordable" comes to mean, in practice, "I can get my name on the title deed, notwithstanding that it takes me longer and longer to pay it off". This is very different from "cheap".
There is a certain kind of opportunistic genius I associate most with the Greeks, in this case an old friend of mine.
When reflecting on Germany/Costa Rica game, once Spain lost to Japan, Germany couldn't go through. But they still had 5 minutes to play. What could they do?
They had enough time to turn around and score three own goals, to make sure that Costa Rica won, and then Spain wouldn't go through either.
This would have been a wonderfully Greek move - out-of-the-box thinking and willingness to endure embarrassment in order to punish hated European rivals.
A friend asked me a few days ago whether I was planning to look into voter fraud this election. I replied that I wasn't. I came to the conclusion last time that it wouldn't matter what we documented, it wouldn't change the result.
Unless State GOP parties did something to stop this kind of stuff in advance, it was hopeless. And sure enough, the states that were useless and dubious last time have chicanery and surprising results again this time. Pennsylvania. Arizona. Wisconsin. Michigan.
I spent days last time trying to get the @PAGOP account to tweet something, anything, about the fraud taking place in Montgomery County. Nothing. Not a peep.
"As Wallesteimer described the atmosphere in the mid to late 2020s, 'From here on out, both parties' leaders began to suspect that if they lost power, they were liable to lose their freedom, if not their lives. ...
After reaching this conclusion, they began to justify their own escalations as being a necessary precaution against the presumed intentions of their opponents. This in turn justified those opponents in their own beliefs, and their own escalations. ...
If Trump wants to do one last good economic policy, he should put @JohnHCochrane on the Fed board with the sole mandate of implementing Narrow Banking, come hell or high water.
Actually, giving him a broad mandate would be better, but this would be a great place to start.
First, by using the Supreme Court original jurisdiction, it at least forces them to take a position on it. This can't just be slapped down by some no-name judge in Hawaii.
And if there's anybody with the social authority to overrule these states, it's the Supreme Court.
Second, this forces the media to do something they've studiously ignored - focus on actual serious allegations going on, not just ignoring the issue or cherrypicking the stupidest claims.