Shylock Holmes Profile picture
Nov 5, 2020 7 tweets 1 min read Read on X
A metaphor for the likelihood of voter fraud, for people who insist that it's a conspiracy theory, or there's no evidence of it.

(1/7)
Suppose Amazon wanted to know how many packages it had. Packages were kept in warehouses all over the country. The system was different in every warehouse.
(2/7)
Some people need to move packages around, and there's a list of who is allowed to do that in each warehouse. But if you go in and say you're that person, nobody checks. If someone else has already done that for you when you arrive, you just get another package.
(3/7)
Some packages get driven around by people in their own cars, some get moved around by the post office, some by volunteers or low paid government employees, and in each case they're largely unmonitored - there's no clear record of which ones left or arrived.
(4/7)
Packages are, by common consent, valuable for people to take. But nobody investigates closely what happens in each place, and very rarely are package thieves caught.
(5/7)
For what package system other than "votes" would this be considered a reliable and acceptable system?
For what important corporate outcome, if you proposed this setup as a manager, would you not be fired?
(6/7)
If someone told you there was no evidence of package fraud, how plausible would that claim be?
(7/7)

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More from @shylockh

May 15
Aesop's Fables are wonderful for children, but you should correct the lessons when they are slightly wrong.

In the Hare and the Tortoise, slow and steady does not generally win the race. Fast and steady does. The real lesson is to not slow down before the race is finished.

1/
In the Town Mouse and the Country mouse, the lesson is not "Better a little in safety, than an abundance surrounded by danger". The lesson is that risk and reward tend to go together.

2/
In the Crab and his Mother, the lesson is not "Example is more important than precept", though that is not totally far off. The lesson is that it is easy to criticize others for things that you could not do yourself.

3/
Read 9 tweets
May 13
Milton Friedman's big contribution to the philosophy of science was the "as if" idea. Many models have assumptions that aren't literally true, but still make useful predictions. If not-quite-right assumptions get you correct predictions, it tells you something important.

1/
It isn't quite right to say that much of the left hates white people, wants them to suffer and die, wants America replaced by infinity brown people, loves crime and dysfunction and people liable to create this, and wants police to be unable to stop crime and dysfunction.

2/
50 (50! Total!) Afrikaner refugees is enough to get the left into a foaming rage, protesting and mocking them. This comes straight after endless tears about deportations of "Maryland men" criminal gangbanger illegals, and demands for their repatriation.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 15
One of the worst acts of the Biden administration, crying out for punishment, was to openly defy the law by flying millions of illegals into America. They deliberately flouted the rule of law when it served them, knowing it would be hard to deport them all through the courts.
1/
The entropy of immigration means that it is asymmetrically much easier to add known illegal immigrants to a population than to figure out afterwards who is whom. This is precisely the point. So now you have two choices, both bad.

2/
You either stick to the precise rule of law, due process, every case a extensive fact finding mission, and low false positives on deportation... but with very little deportation overall.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Mar 27
I remember once seeing an Impressionist collection that, unusually, was paired with photos from Paris from the same time. It was amazing how drab and ordinary Paris actually looked next to the paintings. It made me appreciate the art style more, and Paris less.

1/
The Studio Ghibli art is the same, but now everyone gets to see the comparison. But this actually just shows how good it is. It shows the world as you'd like it to be, where the contrast is high, the faces are pretty, the scenes like out of a dream.

2/
It shows how much most high art has abandoned this project entirely - depicting a more beautiful vision of the world, and inspiring people with what could be, from the raw materials in front of them. It also shows how much unfulfilled desire there is for this form.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 22
I suspect that a lot of the reason for bad parenting guidelines is our unwillingness to give conditional advice for fear of offending people. So instead of saying "don't co-sleep with your baby if you're a morbidly obese drug addict", doctors say "nobody should co-sleep".

1/
But the irony is that the women likely to take this advice seriously and worry about it are the high IQ, high attention, high neuroticism mothers who were at lowest risk in the first place.

2/
If you formalize this intuition, it conflates two wildly different ideas, depending on context.

One is "Costs are zero, or at least very small, or at least you should act like they're very small even if they're not."

3/

Read 7 tweets
Feb 28
Orwell is still undefeated as describing the best model of the psychology of charity:

""A man receiving charity practically always hates his benefactor—it is a fixed characteristic of human nature; and, when he has fifty or a hundred others to back him, he will show it."

1/
It is amazing how many social problems in life are utterly perplexing without this as your default understanding. One normally expects world leaders to hide it better, but the reaction itself is not a surprise at all.

2/
Whether you take this to mean you should stop providing charity, or you should do it but expect ingratitude, or only do it in such circumstances as you would be happy with the outcome even if the response were ingratitude, is up to you.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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