Shylock Holmes Profile picture
Nov 5, 2020 7 tweets 1 min read Read on X
A metaphor for the likelihood of voter fraud, for people who insist that it's a conspiracy theory, or there's no evidence of it.

(1/7)
Suppose Amazon wanted to know how many packages it had. Packages were kept in warehouses all over the country. The system was different in every warehouse.
(2/7)
Some people need to move packages around, and there's a list of who is allowed to do that in each warehouse. But if you go in and say you're that person, nobody checks. If someone else has already done that for you when you arrive, you just get another package.
(3/7)
Some packages get driven around by people in their own cars, some get moved around by the post office, some by volunteers or low paid government employees, and in each case they're largely unmonitored - there's no clear record of which ones left or arrived.
(4/7)
Packages are, by common consent, valuable for people to take. But nobody investigates closely what happens in each place, and very rarely are package thieves caught.
(5/7)
For what package system other than "votes" would this be considered a reliable and acceptable system?
For what important corporate outcome, if you proposed this setup as a manager, would you not be fired?
(6/7)
If someone told you there was no evidence of package fraud, how plausible would that claim be?
(7/7)

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More from @shylockh

Jan 1
Our entire political system operates towards men of goodwill and talent like California operates towards billionaires. If they get chased out and discouraged, so much the better. The system is bad but stable, and it makes the people in current positions of power more secure.

1/
The payoffs to running for public office are having all your past dirty laundry aired publicly just for trying, and in the event that you win, you get a wage that is extraordinarily low if you are honest, and absolutely massive if you are corrupt and willing to play ball.

2/
The only men of any worth willing to try under this system are the independently wealthy, or the insanely self-sacrificing, who are willing to eat shit year after year out of nothing but a sense that it's good for everyone else if they do.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Dec 25, 2025
While it is an imperfect rule, I think that most people who are trying to describe somebody's mental state would be better off using older synonyms rather than their modern therapy equivalents.

They are not narcissistic, they are selfish and thoughtless.

1/
They are not a sociopath, they are cruel.

They do not have borderline personality disorder, they are emotional and dramatic.

Most controversially, they are not depressed, they are unhappy.

2/
They are not autistic, they are shy and awkward and detail-oriented.

The criticism made of these older substitutions is by using them, we miss important psychological nuance in the medical version, and ways they make useful out of sample predictions and generalizations.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Nov 13, 2025
I wonder whether part of the mindset problem for the right is not that they are panicky cowards, but because they have learned helplessness. They don't know what, if any, real world action they could take in their own lives that would help fix the problems they see.

1/
The left does not have this problem *at all*. If you want to be a leftist activist, there are tons of existing groups you can join who will find you something to *do*. It may be small. It may not achieve anything much. But they have work, and a story why that work matters.

2/
The right has mostly viewed this as a structural advantage of the left in terms of the *output* of those foot soldiers. But there's a real chance the main value is marketing and engagement. The customer wants to buy a "get involved" package. Do we have anything to sell?

3/
Read 13 tweets
Jun 27, 2025
Many people misunderstand the first rule of kings (including a plenty of kings themselves). You must only give orders that will be obeyed. Break this rule, and you will not stay as king for long.

The Supreme Court showed that they still have the sense to stay as kings.

1/
The rule that the craziest of your subordinates gets to act with the full weight and force of the king himself was on a very fast track to getting the entire authority openly defied. Far better to preserve your long term authority by restricting its scope on the short term.

2/
The big question, of course, is how do you know which orders will actually be followed? That is the large challenge of being king. You are often trying to forecast matters outside of equilibrium, and outside of events you've witnessed before.

3/
Read 10 tweets
May 15, 2025
Aesop's Fables are wonderful for children, but you should correct the lessons when they are slightly wrong.

In the Hare and the Tortoise, slow and steady does not generally win the race. Fast and steady does. The real lesson is to not slow down before the race is finished.

1/
In the Town Mouse and the Country mouse, the lesson is not "Better a little in safety, than an abundance surrounded by danger". The lesson is that risk and reward tend to go together.

2/
In the Crab and his Mother, the lesson is not "Example is more important than precept", though that is not totally far off. The lesson is that it is easy to criticize others for things that you could not do yourself.

3/
Read 9 tweets
May 13, 2025
Milton Friedman's big contribution to the philosophy of science was the "as if" idea. Many models have assumptions that aren't literally true, but still make useful predictions. If not-quite-right assumptions get you correct predictions, it tells you something important.

1/
It isn't quite right to say that much of the left hates white people, wants them to suffer and die, wants America replaced by infinity brown people, loves crime and dysfunction and people liable to create this, and wants police to be unable to stop crime and dysfunction.

2/
50 (50! Total!) Afrikaner refugees is enough to get the left into a foaming rage, protesting and mocking them. This comes straight after endless tears about deportations of "Maryland men" criminal gangbanger illegals, and demands for their repatriation.

3/
Read 10 tweets

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