Shylock Holmes Profile picture
Nov 5, 2020 7 tweets 1 min read Read on X
A metaphor for the likelihood of voter fraud, for people who insist that it's a conspiracy theory, or there's no evidence of it.

(1/7)
Suppose Amazon wanted to know how many packages it had. Packages were kept in warehouses all over the country. The system was different in every warehouse.
(2/7)
Some people need to move packages around, and there's a list of who is allowed to do that in each warehouse. But if you go in and say you're that person, nobody checks. If someone else has already done that for you when you arrive, you just get another package.
(3/7)
Some packages get driven around by people in their own cars, some get moved around by the post office, some by volunteers or low paid government employees, and in each case they're largely unmonitored - there's no clear record of which ones left or arrived.
(4/7)
Packages are, by common consent, valuable for people to take. But nobody investigates closely what happens in each place, and very rarely are package thieves caught.
(5/7)
For what package system other than "votes" would this be considered a reliable and acceptable system?
For what important corporate outcome, if you proposed this setup as a manager, would you not be fired?
(6/7)
If someone told you there was no evidence of package fraud, how plausible would that claim be?
(7/7)

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More from @shylockh

Nov 17
Evidence Suggesting Voter Fraud in Michigan Senate Race

5 highly suspicious late-night vote updates in Wayne, Genesee, Berrien and Muskegon counties contributed 18.5K net Democrat votes, almost the entire Dem margin of victory. They look implausible on multiple dimensions.

A 🧵 Image
The updates boost Democrat votes at the expense of Republican votes, pushing the limits of what might be considered credible to a casual observer. However, they leave six properties that are consistent with fraud, and are collectively very hard to explain.

2/N Image
The suspicious properties are:
1. Very high Democrat vote share (89%+)
2. Enormous increases in Democrat vote share relative to past votes in county (26% to 52%↑)
3. Increases in Democrat share are huge outliers relative to all nationwide vote updates (above 99.6th pctile)

3/N Image
Read 32 tweets
Nov 11
Evidence Suggesting Voter Fraud in Wisconsin Senate Race

In Milwaukee, a huge and improbable Dem vote dump flipped the race

In Dane and Winnebago, updates implausibly all improved Dem vote share relative to prior votes. Updates got more extreme after GOP pulled ahead.

A 🧵 Image
In Milwaukee, a large vote update of 109K votes, 83% favoring the Democrats, arrived at 3:31am on Wed 11/6, flipping the outcome of the race.

This vote batch is improbable on several dimensions:
1. It is late at night
2. It differs from the 67% Dem vote share beforehand

2/N Image
3. It is 25% of all Senate votes cast in Milwaukee
4. It is a considerable fraction (3.2%) of votes in the overall race
5. The race was close beforehand (49.1% Dem vote share)
6. It flipped the outcome of the race

3/N
Read 63 tweets
Oct 31
A 🧵 on alarming changes in Pennsylvania voter rolls between October 14 and 21. Highlights:

-12k duplicate observations, potentially allowing multiple ballots by the same person

-10% of new records (6.5k) suspiciously backdated to list registration dates years in the past

1/N
Suspiciously dated records are more likely to:
-Be missing house numbers
-To have registered on Jan 1st
-To have already voted.

They could only be identified by comparing both snapshots. They are not explained by bad updates of old data or inactive voters becoming active.

2/N
Overall, I identify 18,456 highly suspicious new entries in the recent update.

It is difficult to explain all these with simple database errors, and it raises significant questions about the introduction of fake records.

3/N
Read 51 tweets
Oct 25
A 🧵 on how terrible and massively error-filled Pennsylvania voter roll data is.

This is important for understanding how much voter fraud there is. A system that cannot prevent innocent errors also cannot prevent malicious errors.

First, the highlights:

1/N
-423 PA voters are older than the oldest known person. 17 are too young. One is yet to be born.
-Almost 1m (12% of PA voters) lack a house number, making their address impossible to verify.
-252 PA voters only list a Post Office Box as an address

2/N
-Thousands of PA voters are registered at single addresses corresponding to homeless shelters and mental hospitals
-42% of likely PA college undergrads who registered to vote with an on-campus address are still registered to vote from their dorm at age 24 or older.

3/N
Read 49 tweets
Aug 31
Brazil right now is a prime example of why a Supreme Court should never ever be given the power to launch their own investigations and make orders based off them, but instead should only have the power to respond to cases that others bring before them.

1/
Moraes is rapidly showing the truth in Moldbug's observation that if the Supreme Court were reduced to a single person, the approrate title for that person would be "King".
Do you have in your head a coherent concept of "an illegal Supreme Court order"? Do you have a mechanism of dealing with it? Because if you don't, you may be surprised to find that "Run it up the flagpole and see who salutes" has become the whole of the law.

3/
Read 8 tweets
May 15
I am increasingly convinced that one of the worst societal choices the west made was deciding that housing should be a vehicle for generating investment wealth, rather than something that stays as cheap as possible.
The related problem was trying to square the circle of "house prices should go up" and "housing should be 'affordable'" by subsidising loans for housing, which just makes the cost problem worse.
"Affordable" comes to mean, in practice, "I can get my name on the title deed, notwithstanding that it takes me longer and longer to pay it off". This is very different from "cheap".
Read 4 tweets

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