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Shylock Holmes Profile picture
Shylock Holmes
@shylockh
One pound of inference, no more, no less. No humbug, no cant, but only inference. This task done, and he would go free. https://t.co/xgRPm2wK1h
18 subscribers
Nov 17 • 32 tweets • 11 min read
Evidence Suggesting Voter Fraud in Michigan Senate Race

5 highly suspicious late-night vote updates in Wayne, Genesee, Berrien and Muskegon counties contributed 18.5K net Democrat votes, almost the entire Dem margin of victory. They look implausible on multiple dimensions.

A 🧵 Image The updates boost Democrat votes at the expense of Republican votes, pushing the limits of what might be considered credible to a casual observer. However, they leave six properties that are consistent with fraud, and are collectively very hard to explain.

2/N Image
Nov 11 • 63 tweets • 18 min read
Evidence Suggesting Voter Fraud in Wisconsin Senate Race

In Milwaukee, a huge and improbable Dem vote dump flipped the race

In Dane and Winnebago, updates implausibly all improved Dem vote share relative to prior votes. Updates got more extreme after GOP pulled ahead.

A 🧵 Image In Milwaukee, a large vote update of 109K votes, 83% favoring the Democrats, arrived at 3:31am on Wed 11/6, flipping the outcome of the race.

This vote batch is improbable on several dimensions:
1. It is late at night
2. It differs from the 67% Dem vote share beforehand

2/N Image
Oct 31 • 51 tweets • 9 min read
A 🧵 on alarming changes in Pennsylvania voter rolls between October 14 and 21. Highlights:

-12k duplicate observations, potentially allowing multiple ballots by the same person

-10% of new records (6.5k) suspiciously backdated to list registration dates years in the past

1/N Suspiciously dated records are more likely to:
-Be missing house numbers
-To have registered on Jan 1st
-To have already voted.

They could only be identified by comparing both snapshots. They are not explained by bad updates of old data or inactive voters becoming active.

2/N
Oct 25 • 49 tweets • 8 min read
A 🧵 on how terrible and massively error-filled Pennsylvania voter roll data is.

This is important for understanding how much voter fraud there is. A system that cannot prevent innocent errors also cannot prevent malicious errors.

First, the highlights:

1/N -423 PA voters are older than the oldest known person. 17 are too young. One is yet to be born.
-Almost 1m (12% of PA voters) lack a house number, making their address impossible to verify.
-252 PA voters only list a Post Office Box as an address

2/N
Aug 31 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Brazil right now is a prime example of why a Supreme Court should never ever be given the power to launch their own investigations and make orders based off them, but instead should only have the power to respond to cases that others bring before them.

1/ Moraes is rapidly showing the truth in Moldbug's observation that if the Supreme Court were reduced to a single person, the approrate title for that person would be "King".
May 15 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I am increasingly convinced that one of the worst societal choices the west made was deciding that housing should be a vehicle for generating investment wealth, rather than something that stays as cheap as possible. The related problem was trying to square the circle of "house prices should go up" and "housing should be 'affordable'" by subsidising loans for housing, which just makes the cost problem worse.
Dec 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
There is a certain kind of opportunistic genius I associate most with the Greeks, in this case an old friend of mine.

When reflecting on Germany/Costa Rica game, once Spain lost to Japan, Germany couldn't go through. But they still had 5 minutes to play. What could they do? They had enough time to turn around and score three own goals, to make sure that Costa Rica won, and then Spain wouldn't go through either.
Nov 9, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
A friend asked me a few days ago whether I was planning to look into voter fraud this election. I replied that I wasn't. I came to the conclusion last time that it wouldn't matter what we documented, it wouldn't change the result. Unless State GOP parties did something to stop this kind of stuff in advance, it was hopeless. And sure enough, the states that were useless and dubious last time have chicanery and surprising results again this time. Pennsylvania. Arizona. Wisconsin. Michigan.
Oct 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
New Post: The Martian Perspective
Imagining what a historian in 200 years might make of the present moment.
shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2022/10/the-ma… "As Wallesteimer described the atmosphere in the mid to late 2020s, 'From here on out, both parties' leaders began to suspect that if they lost power, they were liable to lose their freedom, if not their lives. ...
Dec 31, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
If Trump wants to do one last good economic policy, he should put @JohnHCochrane on the Fed board with the sole mandate of implementing Narrow Banking, come hell or high water. Actually, giving him a broad mandate would be better, but this would be a great place to start.
Dec 8, 2020 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
The Texas election fraud lawsuit filed in the Supreme Court is incredibly important, but some of the reasons may not be immediately obvious.

breitbart.com/politics/2020/… First, by using the Supreme Court original jurisdiction, it at least forces them to take a position on it. This can't just be slapped down by some no-name judge in Hawaii.

And if there's anybody with the social authority to overrule these states, it's the Supreme Court.
Dec 7, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Hey @Elaijuh , you've been doing a great job writing about election issues in Philadelphia. Ross Douthat in the NYT today linked to this Revolver piece documenting significant anomalies in @MontcoPA . Have you thought about doing a story on it?

revolver.news/2020/11/explos… Montgomery also looks highly suspicious along this entirely separate measure of voter fraud, which is quite a coincidence, and would be worth including as part of the same analysis.
revolver.news/2020/11/explos…
Dec 7, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Hey @MontgomeryMedia , Ross Douthat in the NYT today linked to this Revolver piece alleging voter fraud in Montgomery County.

revolver.news/2020/11/explos…

Have you considered doing a story on it, and asking @MontcoPA and @kenlawrencejr what their explanation is for the anomaly? The county also looks highly suspicious on this alternative measure:
revolver.news/2020/12/pennsy…
Dec 6, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Hey @AGHamilton29 , I really hate to ask you to do work. But given you're the go-to debunker, and you linked to the Douthat piece, I notice you haven't written about the Revolver Montgomery piece Douthat links, which is here:
revolver.news/2020/11/explos… I don't think you've written about the birthday analysis either:
revolver.news/2020/12/pennsy…
Dec 5, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Public service announcement: Twitter is full of these troll accounts that pop up in every voter fraud thread to do a disingenuous "just asking questions" shtick. Hallmarks of their style are as follows. They leap between alternative stories, even if they're totally inconsistent with what they just said previously.
Dec 2, 2020 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
Voter Birthday Explainer Thread
revolver.news/2020/12/pennsy…

This came out in Revolver recently. It’s a new twist on identifying voter fr**d: Instead of starting with weird vote patterns, find *other data* that look weird (here, voter birthdays), and then relate it to votes.
(1/N) It’s surprisingly hard to generate fake birthdays without leaving some trace in the data. The piece considers two broad ways that pull in opposite directions. First, you’ll probably pick too many round numbers – 1st, 15th & 31st of the month, Jan and Dec etc.
(2/N)
Nov 30, 2020 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
I'm firmly of the opinion that nobody owes any duty to investigate anyone else's claims. But I note that he doesn't address any of the anomalies I found most suspicious:

1. In Milwaukee, why did later votes swing more towards Democrats in races they were previously losing? See here:
Nov 25, 2020 • 36 tweets • 7 min read
Vote Pattern Analysis Thread
votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anoma…
This article does something very interesting – quantifying how weird the middle of the night updates in Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia were. I want to explain in simple terms what it does, and why it’s so important.
(1/N) Tl; dr - the entire presidential election swings on the plausibility of these updates. And they look extremely unusual.
(2/N)
Nov 22, 2020 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
My thoughts on the Revolver news story on Montgomery County PA
(A thread)

The original story is here – read it first:
revolver.news/2020/11/explos…
(1/N)

Read that first, at least the summary, main facts, and discussion of alternative explanations. First, I find the analysis very persuasive. The evidence that something very weird is going on in the data is almost irrefutable. The big question is whether these have innocent explanations, or malicious ones.
(2/N)
Nov 9, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Want to identify possible election fraud, but don’t know where to start? Here’s a clean CSV format dataset from the NYT, identifying county-level presidential votes at periodic snapshots since counting began. There’s a lot to possibly analyze here.
ufile.io/q3ysydfm It can’t do the kinds of analysis I did, for which you need down-ballot races, and it would be nice to have ward or precinct-level data, but it makes up for it with fantastic repeated snapshots, and covering all of America.
Nov 7, 2020 • 52 tweets • 10 min read
Evidence Suggesting Voter Fraud in Milwaukee – a thread.

I’ve been looking at the vote counts in Milwaukee, and there’s suspicious patterns in the data that need explaining. Proving fraud is difficult, but a lot of irregularities point in that direction. First, the tl;dr.
(1/N) 1. Democrat votes started increasing massively relative to Republicans after Tuesday night counts. This can’t be accounted for by explanations like heavily Democratic wards reporting later. When we look at the changes *within wards*, 96.6% of them favored the Democrats.
(2/N)