One pound of inference, no more, no less. No humbug, no cant, but only inference. This task done, and he would go free.
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Dec 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
There is a certain kind of opportunistic genius I associate most with the Greeks, in this case an old friend of mine.
When reflecting on Germany/Costa Rica game, once Spain lost to Japan, Germany couldn't go through. But they still had 5 minutes to play. What could they do?
They had enough time to turn around and score three own goals, to make sure that Costa Rica won, and then Spain wouldn't go through either.
Nov 9, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
A friend asked me a few days ago whether I was planning to look into voter fraud this election. I replied that I wasn't. I came to the conclusion last time that it wouldn't matter what we documented, it wouldn't change the result.
Unless State GOP parties did something to stop this kind of stuff in advance, it was hopeless. And sure enough, the states that were useless and dubious last time have chicanery and surprising results again this time. Pennsylvania. Arizona. Wisconsin. Michigan.
Oct 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
New Post: The Martian Perspective
Imagining what a historian in 200 years might make of the present moment. shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2022/10/the-ma…
"As Wallesteimer described the atmosphere in the mid to late 2020s, 'From here on out, both parties' leaders began to suspect that if they lost power, they were liable to lose their freedom, if not their lives. ...
Dec 31, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
If Trump wants to do one last good economic policy, he should put @JohnHCochrane on the Fed board with the sole mandate of implementing Narrow Banking, come hell or high water.
Actually, giving him a broad mandate would be better, but this would be a great place to start.
Dec 8, 2020 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
The Texas election fraud lawsuit filed in the Supreme Court is incredibly important, but some of the reasons may not be immediately obvious.
breitbart.com/politics/2020/…
First, by using the Supreme Court original jurisdiction, it at least forces them to take a position on it. This can't just be slapped down by some no-name judge in Hawaii.
And if there's anybody with the social authority to overrule these states, it's the Supreme Court.
Dec 7, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Hey @Elaijuh , you've been doing a great job writing about election issues in Philadelphia. Ross Douthat in the NYT today linked to this Revolver piece documenting significant anomalies in @MontcoPA . Have you thought about doing a story on it?
revolver.news/2020/11/explos…
Montgomery also looks highly suspicious along this entirely separate measure of voter fraud, which is quite a coincidence, and would be worth including as part of the same analysis. revolver.news/2020/11/explos…
Dec 7, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Hey @MontgomeryMedia , Ross Douthat in the NYT today linked to this Revolver piece alleging voter fraud in Montgomery County.
Have you considered doing a story on it, and asking @MontcoPA and @kenlawrencejr what their explanation is for the anomaly?
The county also looks highly suspicious on this alternative measure: revolver.news/2020/12/pennsy…
Dec 6, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Hey @AGHamilton29 , I really hate to ask you to do work. But given you're the go-to debunker, and you linked to the Douthat piece, I notice you haven't written about the Revolver Montgomery piece Douthat links, which is here: revolver.news/2020/11/explos…
Public service announcement: Twitter is full of these troll accounts that pop up in every voter fraud thread to do a disingenuous "just asking questions" shtick. Hallmarks of their style are as follows.
This came out in Revolver recently. It’s a new twist on identifying voter fr**d: Instead of starting with weird vote patterns, find *other data* that look weird (here, voter birthdays), and then relate it to votes.
(1/N)
It’s surprisingly hard to generate fake birthdays without leaving some trace in the data. The piece considers two broad ways that pull in opposite directions. First, you’ll probably pick too many round numbers – 1st, 15th & 31st of the month, Jan and Dec etc.
(2/N)
Nov 30, 2020 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
I'm firmly of the opinion that nobody owes any duty to investigate anyone else's claims. But I note that he doesn't address any of the anomalies I found most suspicious:
1. In Milwaukee, why did later votes swing more towards Democrats in races they were previously losing?
Vote Pattern Analysis Thread votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anoma…
This article does something very interesting – quantifying how weird the middle of the night updates in Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia were. I want to explain in simple terms what it does, and why it’s so important.
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Tl; dr - the entire presidential election swings on the plausibility of these updates. And they look extremely unusual.
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Nov 22, 2020 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
My thoughts on the Revolver news story on Montgomery County PA
(A thread)
Read that first, at least the summary, main facts, and discussion of alternative explanations.
First, I find the analysis very persuasive. The evidence that something very weird is going on in the data is almost irrefutable. The big question is whether these have innocent explanations, or malicious ones.
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Nov 9, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Want to identify possible election fraud, but don’t know where to start? Here’s a clean CSV format dataset from the NYT, identifying county-level presidential votes at periodic snapshots since counting began. There’s a lot to possibly analyze here. ufile.io/q3ysydfm
It can’t do the kinds of analysis I did, for which you need down-ballot races, and it would be nice to have ward or precinct-level data, but it makes up for it with fantastic repeated snapshots, and covering all of America.
Nov 7, 2020 • 52 tweets • 10 min read
Evidence Suggesting Voter Fraud in Milwaukee – a thread.
I’ve been looking at the vote counts in Milwaukee, and there’s suspicious patterns in the data that need explaining. Proving fraud is difficult, but a lot of irregularities point in that direction. First, the tl;dr.
(1/N)
1. Democrat votes started increasing massively relative to Republicans after Tuesday night counts. This can’t be accounted for by explanations like heavily Democratic wards reporting later. When we look at the changes *within wards*, 96.6% of them favored the Democrats.
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Nov 5, 2020 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
A metaphor for the likelihood of voter fraud, for people who insist that it's a conspiracy theory, or there's no evidence of it.
(1/7)
Suppose Amazon wanted to know how many packages it had. Packages were kept in warehouses all over the country. The system was different in every warehouse.
(2/7)
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