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Stephen Wolf Profile picture
@PoliticsWolf
Nov 5, 2020 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
NEW: The 2020 elections were a disaster for a decade of redistricting, further securing GOP minority rule.

GOP is tentatively on track to draw 4-5 times as many congressional districts as Dems, while SCOTUS threatens to remove checks on GOP legislatures dailykos.com/story/2020/11/… ImageImage
After 2010, the GOP drew 5 times as many congressional districts as Dems, a majority vs. Dems' 10%.

2020 is poised to be similar with the GOP drawing 4-5 out of 10 districts nationally. GOP gerrymandering WITHIN states may also become even more extreme than 2010 thanks to SCOTUS Image
If Dems don't pull off upsets in the expected Jan. 5 runoffs for both GA Senate seats, GOP will control Senate, blocking House Dems from banning congressional gerrymandering nationally with #HR1 & taking the threat of SCOTUS expansion off the table.

SCOTUS may soon be let loose
Dems need to pour their energy into winning both Georgia Senate runoffs on Jan. 5.

This will be tough, however, & we need contingencies for a GOP Senate blocking all progress.

Dems should start organizing mass protests against 2020s GOP gerrymandering power grabs unlike in 2011
If Dems are unable to counteract this disparity, 2022 could see GOP entrench minority rule in the House & several state legislatures. The GOP is positioned to oust at least several currently safe House Dems via gerrymandering regardless of whether there's a Biden midterm backlash
We'll keep this post on the 2020s redistricting partisan landscape updated as we get calls to decide legislative chambers in AZ (both), MN Senate, & PA (both), where GOP currently leads. Much depends on future Supreme Court cases, which we'll detail in-depth in a follow-up story
NEW: GOP gerrymandering within states could get turbocharged after 2020. With GOP likely to hold the Senate, the Supreme Court may soon be let loose & remove 3 key checks on GOP gerrymanders, while the extent of Trump's damage to the census remains unknown dailykos.com/story/2020/11/…
SCOTUS could make GOP gerrymandering more potent by removing the power of state courts, independent commissions, & even governors to block GOP legislatures from gerrymandering. It may crush the Voting Rights Act & may let GOP deny representation to people of color who can't vote
So much depends on Georgia's Jan. 5 runoffs, which will determine control of the Senate. Biden with a Dem Senate could ban congressional gerrymandering, reinvigorate the Voting Rights Act, & constrain the Supreme Court's radicalism. But things get hard if the GOP holds the Senate
U.S. democracy faces a dire risk of GOP minority rule becoming self-entrenching. If Dems don't flip Senate in January, they may not get another chance for years to come.

But nations like Chile show how determined majorities can overcome minority rule via sustained mass protests
Things may seem depressing right now, & it's key to practice self-care.

But I write this thread not to make you give up hope for political change but to show what the problem is & how we can fight it.

Republicans can only keep thwarting majority rule in America if we let them

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More from @PoliticsWolf

Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Jul 4
This is what the New York Times chose to publish on Independence Day just one week after the Supreme Court ruled that Republican presidents are above the law.
Opinion piece by Matthew Walther titled “Why I don’t vote. And why maybe you shouldn’t either.”
When I was growing up I was solemnly informed that voting was one’s civic duty. I fear that this quaint phrase does not quite catch in my throat. Civic duty is a protean concept. In the antebellum South, members of night patrols considered it their civic duty to hunt down fugitive slaves. In the course of our country’s history, the concept has also been invoked to describe obligations as various as membership in eugenics societies and the promise of Catholics to take up arms against the Holy See in the event of a papal invasion. To me, civic duty simply means paying taxes and obeying all re...
Same author wrote this in 2022 to oppose the most expansive voting rights bill since 1965, which Senate Republicans successfully filibustered theamericanconservative.com/voting-rights-…
This NYT opinion piece’s author previously wrote: “But my principal reason for declining to take part in elections is moral. It involves, I suppose, a private objection to democracy itself.”

(Found via Greg Pak on bsky)
theweek.com/articles/80259…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Dec 7, 2023
NEW: The Georgia GOP has passed new districts after a court ruled the old gerrymanders violate the Voting Rights Act.

But the GOP refused to add a congressional seat for Black voters, & the Supreme Court could further weaken the VRA if the case reaches it
dailykos.com/stories/2023/1…
Image
Georgia GOP's new congressional map renumbers 3 districts to hide how they took an existing Black-opportunity seat, the 7th, & packed it to majority-Black.

District 6 becomes 7 (74% of old 6)

13 becomes 6 (53% of old 13; 0% of old 6)

7 becomes 13 (47% of old 7; 29% of old 13)
The 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, which covers Georgia, has ruled that multiracial minority coalitions may be VRA-protected if the groups vote cohesively

But SCOTUS hasn't definitively ruled on such coalitions & could weaken the VRA if it rejects them casetext.com/case/concerned…
Image
Read 7 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Oct 25, 2023
BREAKING [Thread]: North Carolina GOP just passed extreme new gerrymanders to make Dem majorities impossible in a big swing state.

The congressional map below will elect an 11-3 or 10-4 GOP majority & replace a court-drawn map that went 7D-7R in 2022 dailykos.com/story/2023/10/…
Image
North Carolina GOP also enacted extreme new gerrymanders for the state House & are about to do the state Senate.

Not only do they make Democratic majorities effectively impossible, the GOP will likely keep veto-proof 3/5 majorities in all but the most Dem-favoring election years Image
North Carolina's GOP House gerrymander may be the most extreme of any state.

It spreads around GOP voters to ensure 10 seats are safe but don't waste votes, while all 3 Dem seats are dark blue. The one swing seat is trending GOP.

Stark contrast with the fair 7-7 map it replaced Image
Read 13 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Oct 23, 2023
North Carolina Republicans advanced a new congressional gerrymander with 10 safe GOP seats, 3 safe Dem seats, & 1 GOP-trending swing district in this major swing state.

It would be among the nation's most extreme gerrymanders & replace a court-drawn map that went 7D-7R in 2022
Image
Here's our recent story explaining how North Carolina's GOP is targeting four House Dems.

NC's Supreme Court had ruled gerrymandering unconstitutional last year, but the GOP flipped the court in 2022 & reversed the ruling this year dailykos.com/stories/2023/1…
The North Carolina GOP's proposed 1st District went 50-49 for Joe Biden in 2020 but 52-46 for Republican Sen. Ted Budd in 2022.

First-term Democratic Rep. Don Davis is 1 of NC's 3 Black members & could lose in 2024 #NC01
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Oct 5, 2023
NEW: North Carolina GOP's new budget became law this week & contains power grabs to boost GOP control over NC's courts & elections.

One of its many parts expands GOP control over a commission they're using to target NC's only Black Supreme Court justice dailykos.com/stories/2023/1…
The North Carolina GOP's new law also expands the powers of GOP Chief Justice Paul Newby & creates new trial court judges for the gerrymandered legislature to appoint.

Newby could handpick them to hear lawsuits against the state, such as those challenging the GOP's gerrymanders
North Carolina Republicans also raised the mandatory retirement age for state judges from 72 to 76 so the GOP chief justice can serve up to 4 more years.

The change means Democrats couldn’t appoint a Dem as chief justice in 2027 if they win the 2024 election for governor
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
NEW: In a huge relief for democracy, the Supreme Court just rejected a radical GOP legal theory that aimed to give gerrymandered state legislatures near-unfettered power to gerrymander & suppress voters in federal elections dailykos.com/story/2023/6/2…
After the North Carolina Supreme Court struck down the GOP's gerrymanders last year, the GOP wanted the U.S. Supreme Court
to strip state courts of their power to enforce state constitutional protections against gerrymandering & voting restrictions.

But SCOTUS rejected them
Unfortunately, North Carolina Republicans will be able to gerrymander new maps for 2024 anyway because they won control of the state Supreme Court lats fall, which quickly reversed the courts prior rulings against gerrymandering & racist voter restrictions dailykos.com/stories/2023/4…
Read 6 tweets

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