One thing about political analysis is that it relies almost entirely on counterfactuals which cannot be tested or refuted, so basically anyone can say any old shit they want despite the fact that no one actually knows anything.
"If Biden had talked about X more, he would have done better in Y states." I mean, sure. Or maybe not, maybe he would have done worse in Y states! Literally no one knows or could ever know.
"If Dems has talked less about race & abolishing the police, they would have done better in purple districts." Maybe!
"If Dems were bolder & less apologetic about their agenda, voters would respond positively." Maybe!
No one can or will ever know whether these are true.
"If Dems were bolder & less apologetic about their agenda, voters would respond positively." Maybe!
No one can or will ever know whether these are true.
In general, political analysis is a case study in the fact that people prefer believing something, anything, no matter how tenuous or unsupported, to acknowledging that we're all blundering along in almost total ignorance & no one knows what's gonna happen, or exactly why.
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