One thing about political analysis is that it relies almost entirely on counterfactuals which cannot be tested or refuted, so basically anyone can say any old shit they want despite the fact that no one actually knows anything.
"If Biden had talked about X more, he would have done better in Y states." I mean, sure. Or maybe not, maybe he would have done worse in Y states! Literally no one knows or could ever know.
"If Dems has talked less about race & abolishing the police, they would have done better in purple districts." Maybe!

"If Dems were bolder & less apologetic about their agenda, voters would respond positively." Maybe!

No one can or will ever know whether these are true.
In general, political analysis is a case study in the fact that people prefer believing something, anything, no matter how tenuous or unsupported, to acknowledging that we're all blundering along in almost total ignorance & no one knows what's gonna happen, or exactly why.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with David Roberts

David Roberts Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @drvox

7 Nov
Instead of "reaching out," why don't we take this opportunity to make very clear that racism, xenophobia, and authoritarianism are repugnant to a decent society. Let's reject them, loudly & publicly, & extend social disapprobation to those who support them.
When someone expresses racism, xenophobia, or authoritarianism in public, they SHOULD face backlash. We do not need sympathy for those facing such backlash -- that's things working as they should! Reserve your sympathy for racism's millions & millions of victims.
Oh, wait, what's that, your motivations for discrimination & hatred are "religious"? Yeah I don't care.
Read 5 tweets
6 Nov
Not sure I can articulate this well, but it seems to me that the features of Trump's personality/psyche that enabled him to capture & hold the allegiance of the RW base are *incommensurate with competence*. His malignant narcissism makes him genuinely unaware ...
... of the norms & conventions he's violating. He just bulls through them with zero hesitation or self-awareness. That thrills the baying mob. But he things that make people smart & competent -- self-awareness, self-discipline, the ability to delay gratification -- are ...
... impossible to completely conceal. When a Hawley or Cotton violates the same conventions, they are *aware* of it. There's a purposefulness, an artifice, a wink that just doesn't sell as well. Much of what Trump "accomplished" he did so by simply not realizing ...
Read 7 tweets
5 Nov
In about an hour I'm going to get my vision tested for the first time since ... I can't even remember. I've always been smug about my 20/20 vision, so when I inevitably discover that it is deteriorating & I need old-man glasses, get ready for a whole new level of grumpy tweeting.
Tell you what, though, if I get glasses, I'm definitely getting that kind that magnets together in the middle, and you can wear around your neck, like Mindy's boyfriend on that old Mindy show.
Important vision update: Dr. says my 20/20 vision is still intact (😎), but near-vision is (slowly/mildly) degenerating, as is inevitable for those over 40. Says I'm fine for now but could eventually use some off-the-shelf reading glasses from CVS or whatever.
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
Trump fundraising email.
He's raising money off his gullible supporters by hopping them up on paranoid conspiracy theories ... right to the bitter end.
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
Why are these morons trying to stop vote counting when their guy is behind? Is it ... because they're morons?
I'm told these morons actually want the count to continue, but they want to be let inside to intimid... er, *observe* the count, lest the deepstate rig the vote in Biden's favor.
If I'm following this correctly, Republicans think Fox News and the Maricopa County Sheriff's Office are teaming up to steal the Arizona election from Trump.
Read 11 tweets
4 Nov
Keep thinking about this. McConnell must be absolutely thrilled. No legislation, more conservative judges, & a SCOTUS guaranteed to strike down any executive-branch ambition.
McConnell is right in his sweet spot: in a position to ensure that Dems can't get enough stimulus out to rescue the economy & can't pass any of the things they ran on ... but he knows (from experience) that voters will blame the president for all that. 2022 R landslide coming.
A 2022 R landslide fueled by a historic wave of voter suppression, which won't draw as much public attention (because mid-terms) and will be approved & defended at every turn by the reactionary Supreme Court.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!