Until the start of Aug, we've been in a bearish stance with an influx of 100k coins (Germany, MtGox, DOJ) while speculation has been rife creating more paper BTC.
The price crash during the start of Aug flushed out much of the paper with a nice round of liquidations... open interest got wiped.
That's a healthy reset of open value (paper bets). It's really hard for BTC to climb when there's overheated speculation in the market.
This mid-June assessment is still in play.
BTC price action needs to get really boring.
I feel like we are 66% the way there. Much of the speculation has left, we still need more of the spot BTC to be absorbed.
Here's the 5 macro signals I'm looking closely at right now for #Bitcoin.
3 bullish, 2 bearish...
Miners capitulation is over, it's one of the most reliable bullish indicators.
Hash rate is recovering, the price and hash rate bottom coincided with upgrades to next gen hardware hitting the network.
M66s went live last week.
S21 Pros this week.
Hash rate set to scream.
Miner capitulation is a very responsive indicator. The breakout was preluded with hash rate recovery; price responded within a day. I gave early warning of this.
When it kicks in we normally have months of bullishness.
I don't usually do short time frame price action as it's the domain of gamblers. But worth a break down of what's happening given the fear in the market...
We've been flushing out the leverage, 62.5k was the target to get most of it.
...speculators kept adding to new long positions, just adding more fuel for more liquidations in a cascading long squeeze.
Bridging us down to the 58k cluster, which just got taken out.
Superimposed on this liquidation squeeze, we have a post halving miners capitulation. Miners are on a BTC selling spree to pay for hardware upgrades due to the old hardware no longer being profitable. The weakest miners closing shop and being liquidated.