Willy Woo Profile picture
Nov 6, 2020 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
#MarketUpdate THREAD

The most organic pump I've seen in years.

This was not a squeeze from derivatives traders but from solid organic buying.
Exhibit A:

A ridiculous amount of coins were scooped up and moved off to individual wallets. Image
Zooming out, putting this into perspective, it's the largest one day scoop up in this 5-year chart. Image
Exhibit B:

Prior to this pump, the influx of new HODLers seen on the blockchain was going through the roof.

(clusters of new wallet addresses holding BTC from new unique participants that were unseen before) Image
Repeat, through the roof, I'm not kidding. 🚀

This size of uptake was last seen in October 2017; that was one month before BTC entered its 2017 mania phase.

(We are nowhere near mania right now, we haven't even broken the prior all-time-high) Image
A decent amount of investors took profit according to SOPR. It's in the region that typically halts an immediate further rise.

SOPR = the ratio of profit for coins moving between investors. Image
Also derivative funding rates are high-ish, providing headwinds for further climbs.

Average PERP funding across all exchanges pictured here by @glassnode Image
Overall conclusion: Not expecting a blow off top. Waiting for a consolidation to complete, then more bullish action.
For a further, more detailed breakdown, I've made this latest edition of The Bitcoin Forecast free to all.

willywoo.substack.com/p/the-organic-…

⭐️Reminder, there's 4 days left to sign up to get in during the launch month special.
Thanks to @glassnode for supporting this analysis by sponsoring the on-chain data.

Also to my paid subscribers who made this possible. 🙏

🚀🚀🚀

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More from @woonomic

Aug 21
I've been on RnR for a while, but...

Here's the chart I like best to set the scene.

Less inventory = bullish

Until the start of Aug, we've been in a bearish stance with an influx of 100k coins (Germany, MtGox, DOJ) while speculation has been rife creating more paper BTC. Image
The price crash during the start of Aug flushed out much of the paper with a nice round of liquidations... open interest got wiped.

That's a healthy reset of open value (paper bets). It's really hard for BTC to climb when there's overheated speculation in the market. Image
This mid-June assessment is still in play.

BTC price action needs to get really boring.

I feel like we are 66% the way there. Much of the speculation has left, we still need more of the spot BTC to be absorbed.

Read 5 tweets
Jul 23
Here's the 5 macro signals I'm looking closely at right now for #Bitcoin.

3 bullish, 2 bearish...
Miners capitulation is over, it's one of the most reliable bullish indicators.

Hash rate is recovering, the price and hash rate bottom coincided with upgrades to next gen hardware hitting the network.

M66s went live last week.

S21 Pros this week.

Hash rate set to scream. Image
Miner capitulation is a very responsive indicator. The breakout was preluded with hash rate recovery; price responded within a day. I gave early warning of this.

When it kicks in we normally have months of bullishness.

Read 10 tweets
Jul 8
Market overview of the current state of #Bitcoin demand and supply.

- miners ⛏️
- German govt 🤡
- ETFs 🏦
- Futures 🎲🎰

Punctuated in emojis for ELI5ers.

🧵
Miner capitulation.

Are we there yet? Nope.

Until hash rate climbs, as seen in a ribbon recovery, the local environment is bearish. Miners are selling off, happens every time after the halving.

Almost always a good buy entry happens when the ribbon recovers.

🧸→🐂 Image
The star of the FUD is the German govt selling of their confiscated BTC.

Remember the movie2k guys hodled from 2013, getting way over 100x appreciation to around $3b.

Germany now has custody, uh oh... immediately decides to sell 🤡.

Best comment 🥇: "this is bullish, when was the last time Germany made a good decision?"

But I digress.

They have sold 10k BTC so far.

Looks like market orders, which further dumps the price reducing their own money. 🤡

Rumour has it they have now moved to an OTC desk to let the pros handle it.

This will reduce the severity of price impact but not negate it. OTC desks will go to the markets to fill any mismatch between buyers and sellers.

39.8k BTC left to sell.

🤡🧸Image
Read 11 tweets
Jun 24
I don't usually do short time frame price action as it's the domain of gamblers. But worth a break down of what's happening given the fear in the market...

We've been flushing out the leverage, 62.5k was the target to get most of it.

Until...
...speculators kept adding to new long positions, just adding more fuel for more liquidations in a cascading long squeeze.

Bridging us down to the 58k cluster, which just got taken out. Image
Superimposed on this liquidation squeeze, we have a post halving miners capitulation. Miners are on a BTC selling spree to pay for hardware upgrades due to the old hardware no longer being profitable. The weakest miners closing shop and being liquidated.

Read 8 tweets
Jun 14
ETFs are buying...

Institutions are buying...

Who the hell is selling?

2024 brought a mass of commentators looking at ETFs flows, as if that's all that matters.

What matters is total demand and supply.

Here's a 101 thread on how the modern #Bitcoin market works.
First, let me tell you who is selling.

The OGs. They are selling

They have more BTC than all the ETFs put together... 10x more.

And they sell into every bull market.

This pattern is as old as the genesis block.

Chart below: the age x amount of coins being sold. Image
We are now in the modern age of BTC.

Paper BTC has flooded the market since 2017.

Futures markets.

If you want to buy BTC, it used to be you had to buy real BTC.

You can now buy paper BTC. Thus a no-coiner can sell you that paper.

Together you have made a synthetic BTC.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 15
Want to know which indicator called the last 2 large corrections within hours?

It's the moon. I shit you not... that sell signal is a particular phase of the moon.

🌘 Image
The correlation to the moon has been well studied, here's a 2005 study looking at price impact on stock markets.

If you run the correlation, the moon cycle strengthened its impact after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

That event may have lead to the birth of meme stocks. Image
🔫 You may say it was War, and pricing in War, that lead to the last #BTC pull back.

🌘 Or maybe it was just that time of the moon cycle when in a tense situation humans felt shitty enough to launch a drone + missile attack. Image
Read 4 tweets

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