I have some good news and [maybe] some bad news for you.

GOOD NEWS: Risk SIgnal is trending downwards, meaning over the broader environment buy-side liquidity is dominating. We are setting up for another solid run on the long time frame. However the strength of this bullish run from 75k->112k is starting to break down, I covered this in my last post.

This week is absolutely critical, if we do not get follow through, then we will be up for another consolidation period.

Chart courtesy of @swissblock__'s framework which powers @bitcoinvector - any institution, hedge fund or pubco which touches global macro, BTC or alt-coins should be subscribed to @bitcoinvector because it's absolutely the highest quality battle tested quant framework available for BTC that has stood the test of time over multiple cycles carrying significant capital and the introductory pricing is a steal.

Speculation is going nuts on BTC at a time when there's plenty of investor profits to take (SOPR).

Reminds me of "be fearful when others are greedy".

A lot comes down to how much buying happens this week when US markets open after a long weekend. Our @bitcoinvector structure shift signal showing first signs of a bearish pivot.

Capital flows into the network was very flat the last 3 days, this is an unusual lull in buying on our run from 75k->112k.

Exactly 3 years ago I shut down a business making me millions per year.

Here's a 🧵on how it started, why I shut it down and why I'm helping to build something better for this industry. The idea was simple: help plebs navigate the markets.

On-chain signals was still a new thing, I was very early in this field.

That's the cool thing about BTC... the sea of transactions on the network is public, with smarts you can figure out which way the price may go.

BTC fundamentals have turned bullish, not a bad setup to break all time highs.

I took a break from X to enjoy the NZ summer but every week I put out a series of analysis to my subscribers (this is a hobby, NOT a long term project).

Thought I'd post this update publicly. Capital flows into the network are ramping up.

Both total and speculative flows have bottomed, when both align they join forces to make a bullish environment anchored in fundamentals.

If you understand this chart deeply, you'll understand the money over the next 1000s of years will be secured by energy.

... and we're lucky to be born in a very special time. Gold+Silver has been money for thousands of years.

Every empire used Gold+Silver or backed their paper with it.

Let's forget fiat, that's not money, that's currency to tie over a 53 year liquidity crisis, and it will pass like all fiat attempts in the past.

How can $MSTR possibly trade at 2.7x their BTC treasury?

I suspect we are seeing the start of $5-10b of inflows in anticipation of a SP500 listing right now.

If true, then it's still warming up. Consider 20-30% of the SP500's $50T marketcap comes from passive index tracking funds and ETFs.

Inclusion into the SP500 means MSTR gets a chunk of that money.

Inflow estimates:
$10-15b from passive index tracker funds
$5-10b additional from speculative inflows

HOW TO STAY POOR

If you save in cash under the mattress, the government #debasement would have stolen half of its value in 10 short years. HOW TO NOT STAY POOR

#Gold is "how not to be shafted" technology.

People for 6000 years have held it in order to not get butt reamed by their governments.

I've been on RnR for a while, but...

Here's the chart I like best to set the scene.

Less inventory = bullish

Until the start of Aug, we've been in a bearish stance with an influx of 100k coins (Germany, MtGox, DOJ) while speculation has been rife creating more paper BTC. The price crash during the start of Aug flushed out much of the paper with a nice round of liquidations... open interest got wiped.

That's a healthy reset of open value (paper bets). It's really hard for BTC to climb when there's overheated speculation in the market.

Here's the 5 macro signals I'm looking closely at right now for #Bitcoin.

3 bullish, 2 bearish... Miners capitulation is over, it's one of the most reliable bullish indicators.

Hash rate is recovering, the price and hash rate bottom coincided with upgrades to next gen hardware hitting the network.

M66s went live last week.

S21 Pros this week.

Hash rate set to scream.

Market overview of the current state of #Bitcoin demand and supply.

- miners ⛏️
- German govt 🤡
- ETFs 🏦
- Futures 🎲🎰

Punctuated in emojis for ELI5ers.

🧵 Miner capitulation.

Are we there yet? Nope.

Until hash rate climbs, as seen in a ribbon recovery, the local environment is bearish. Miners are selling off, happens every time after the halving.

Almost always a good buy entry happens when the ribbon recovers.

🧸→🐂

I don't usually do short time frame price action as it's the domain of gamblers. But worth a break down of what's happening given the fear in the market...

We've been flushing out the leverage, 62.5k was the target to get most of it.

Until...

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1800603193686241289

...speculators kept adding to new long positions, just adding more fuel for more liquidations in a cascading long squeeze.

Bridging us down to the 58k cluster, which just got taken out.

ETFs are buying...

Institutions are buying...

Who the hell is selling?

2024 brought a mass of commentators looking at ETFs flows, as if that's all that matters.

What matters is total demand and supply.

Here's a 101 thread on how the modern #Bitcoin market works. First, let me tell you who is selling.

The OGs. They are selling

They have more BTC than all the ETFs put together... 10x more.

And they sell into every bull market.

This pattern is as old as the genesis block.

Chart below: the age x amount of coins being sold.

Want to know which indicator called the last 2 large corrections within hours?

It's the moon. I shit you not... that sell signal is a particular phase of the moon.

🌘 The correlation to the moon has been well studied, here's a 2005 study looking at price impact on stock markets.

If you run the correlation, the moon cycle strengthened its impact after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

That event may have lead to the birth of meme stocks.

Money has always been a balance sheet of who owes whom.

This accounting needs to be agreed upon. And there’s only 3 known ways:

1) with social consensus

2) with matter

3) with energy 1) social consensus

Examples include fiat and proof of stake.

The ones in power (the wealthy) aim to control opinion to keep faith in the accounting system.

CVDD Floor (circa 2019) successfully defended for 2 months straight, the first proper test apart from COVID where the crash got close.

Hope this is not famous last words :).

Spot momentum has been strong throughout this move, there was also solid accumulation for months at 16k.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1596183033069342720

Cost basis comparison suggests the bottom has formed. The peak discount that short term purchases got over long term purchases has crested.

It's only at the deep parts of a bear market do short term coins get cheaper than long term coins.

BTC on exchanges since 1st Apr 2022, just before the deleveraging dominos started falling.

Y-axis is % difference and line weight is proportional to BTC held presently.

Winners: OKX & Bitfinex
Neutral: Binance
Losers: Everyone else Bitfinex is the sleeper here.

The parent entity, iFinex, is making huge profits with its Tether capital sitting in US treasuries. Tether earns $3b per year right now. iFinex also has 94,000 BTC returning from the Bitfinex hack funds seizure ($1.5b).

DeFi apps can never be truly decentralised.

Been pondering this deeply.

Anything that works will need trusted centralised parties.

If true, dapps and L1s are just a wild goose chase over an intractable problem.

Please prove me wrong. Best way to prove me wrong is to name a dapp that provides a benefit that people want that cannot be done by better by existing Web2 and Bitcoin technology.

Example arguments:
- why a DEX will be better than a CEX
- seamless fintech inter-op across the web using MetaMask

An image capture of 10,000+ coins. This is the entire ecosystem, plotted against BTC as the base currency.

It's organically beautiful.

Over coming days I'll add to this thread adding insights as I discover.

Like it to subscribe. Comment if u want me to investigate things.

🧵 First some orientation.

The last image looked like a smudge.

Zoom in. You'll see its 10,000+ lines. Each is a price chart of a coin in BTC value (e.g. DOGE/BTC).

Then I tie the present day value together to the same point so we can compare.

All price data is from @coingecko.

Image captured from the World Wide Web today.

Look at it. That's here. That's home. That's us.

On it every trader you ever heard of, every hodler that lived, lived out their lives.

The aggregate of all our fomo and fud. Thousands of ponzis, ideologies and economic doctrines. Every shitcoin shiller or toxic maximalist

Every creator of forker of networks

Every crypto-jesus or fake-satoshi

Every hopeful noob

Every libertarian in love

In the history of crypto lived there

One a pale brown smear

Suspended in numbers

Here's the 3rd in my series of macro bottom charts...

MVRV ratio is deep inside the value zone.

Under this signal we were in already bottoming (1) until the latest FTX white swan debacle brought us back into a buy zone (2). MVRV was created by @dpuellARK and @MustStopMurad. It tracks the ratio between Bitcoin's marketcap vs the capital invested into the network.

Note in this version I have normalised the signal with a 4-year z-score to make each BTC cycle more comparable.

Data: @glassnode

"Silence from the media"

MSM is broken.

Without the 4th estate, the press, democracy breaks down.

https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1593158578071736320

How did we get here? It was the breakdown of The Fairness Doctrine. It stated important issues needed to presented in a contrasting way to the public. Both sides of important issues needed to be told.

FCC abolished this during the Reagan administration.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FCC_fairn…