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Willy Woo Profile picture
Willy Woo
@woonomic
engineer → tech founder → #bitcoin analyst → hedge funds. I do charts. On a hiatus from podcast interviews.
Hamish MacEwan Profile picture Paul Profile picture David Profile picture Kevin Benoit Profile picture AlienOvichO Profile picture 124 subscribed
Jun 24 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
I don't usually do short time frame price action as it's the domain of gamblers. But worth a break down of what's happening given the fear in the market...

We've been flushing out the leverage, 62.5k was the target to get most of it.

Until... ...speculators kept adding to new long positions, just adding more fuel for more liquidations in a cascading long squeeze.

Bridging us down to the 58k cluster, which just got taken out. Image
Jun 14 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
ETFs are buying...

Institutions are buying...

Who the hell is selling?

2024 brought a mass of commentators looking at ETFs flows, as if that's all that matters.

What matters is total demand and supply.

Here's a 101 thread on how the modern #Bitcoin market works. First, let me tell you who is selling.

The OGs. They are selling

They have more BTC than all the ETFs put together... 10x more.

And they sell into every bull market.

This pattern is as old as the genesis block.

Chart below: the age x amount of coins being sold. Image
Apr 15 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Want to know which indicator called the last 2 large corrections within hours?

It's the moon. I shit you not... that sell signal is a particular phase of the moon.

🌘 Image The correlation to the moon has been well studied, here's a 2005 study looking at price impact on stock markets.

If you run the correlation, the moon cycle strengthened its impact after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

That event may have lead to the birth of meme stocks. Image
Jun 10, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Money has always been a balance sheet of who owes whom.

This accounting needs to be agreed upon. And there’s only 3 known ways:

1) with social consensus

2) with matter

3) with energy 1) social consensus

Examples include fiat and proof of stake.

The ones in power (the wealthy) aim to control opinion to keep faith in the accounting system.
Jan 17, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
CVDD Floor (circa 2019) successfully defended for 2 months straight, the first proper test apart from COVID where the crash got close.

Hope this is not famous last words :).

Spot momentum has been strong throughout this move, there was also solid accumulation for months at 16k. Cost basis comparison suggests the bottom has formed. The peak discount that short term purchases got over long term purchases has crested.

It's only at the deep parts of a bear market do short term coins get cheaper than long term coins.
Jan 7, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
BTC on exchanges since 1st Apr 2022, just before the deleveraging dominos started falling.

Y-axis is % difference and line weight is proportional to BTC held presently.

Winners: OKX & Bitfinex
Neutral: Binance
Losers: Everyone else Bitfinex is the sleeper here.

The parent entity, iFinex, is making huge profits with its Tether capital sitting in US treasuries. Tether earns $3b per year right now. iFinex also has 94,000 BTC returning from the Bitfinex hack funds seizure ($1.5b).
Dec 30, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
DeFi apps can never be truly decentralised.

Been pondering this deeply.

Anything that works will need trusted centralised parties.

If true, dapps and L1s are just a wild goose chase over an intractable problem.

Please prove me wrong. Best way to prove me wrong is to name a dapp that provides a benefit that people want that cannot be done by better by existing Web2 and Bitcoin technology.

Example arguments:
- why a DEX will be better than a CEX
- seamless fintech inter-op across the web using MetaMask
Dec 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
An image capture of 10,000+ coins. This is the entire ecosystem, plotted against BTC as the base currency.

It's organically beautiful.

Over coming days I'll add to this thread adding insights as I discover.

Like it to subscribe. Comment if u want me to investigate things.

🧵 First some orientation.

The last image looked like a smudge.

Zoom in. You'll see its 10,000+ lines. Each is a price chart of a coin in BTC value (e.g. DOGE/BTC).

Then I tie the present day value together to the same point so we can compare.

All price data is from @coingecko.
Dec 16, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Image captured from the World Wide Web today.

Look at it. That's here. That's home. That's us.

On it every trader you ever heard of, every hodler that lived, lived out their lives.

The aggregate of all our fomo and fud. Thousands of ponzis, ideologies and economic doctrines. Every shitcoin shiller or toxic maximalist

Every creator of forker of networks

Every crypto-jesus or fake-satoshi

Every hopeful noob

Every libertarian in love

In the history of crypto lived there

One a pale brown smear

Suspended in numbers
Nov 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Here's the 3rd in my series of macro bottom charts...

MVRV ratio is deep inside the value zone.

Under this signal we were in already bottoming (1) until the latest FTX white swan debacle brought us back into a buy zone (2). MVRV was created by @dpuellARK and @MustStopMurad. It tracks the ratio between Bitcoin's marketcap vs the capital invested into the network.

Note in this version I have normalised the signal with a 4-year z-score to make each BTC cycle more comparable.

Data: @glassnode
Nov 17, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
"Silence from the media"

MSM is broken.

Without the 4th estate, the press, democracy breaks down. How did we get here? It was the breakdown of The Fairness Doctrine. It stated important issues needed to presented in a contrasting way to the public. Both sides of important issues needed to be told.

FCC abolished this during the Reagan administration.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FCC_fairn…
Sep 17, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A dummies guide to selling 42 million BTC...

🧵 You think I'm kidding.

"There can only ever be 21m coins"

Yes, you're right, I see you've read the whitepaper.
Jul 20, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
BTC punched through a capitulation structure.

i.e. investors who bought higher sold out in droves while urgent buyers were there to rally the price against the selling.

The next step in a proper bottom signature happens when the contours get dense under the price. Zoomed in view.
Jun 14, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Here's a summary of price models for generational BTC bottoms:

200 week MA - done $22k
Cost basis analysis - not yet
CVDD - plenty of downside room First up... Everyone's looking at the 200 week moving average. It's $22k.

It's worked well in the past. Even during the early years, it has caught every generational bottom.

Bear in mind this entire phase of BTC price action was during a prolonged macro bull market post 2008.
Jun 8, 2022 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
"In search of a bottom"

(Don't read this, it's too long)

Here's a visual of the cost basis of the entire BTC supply. Areas of high density represent significant coins moving into investor wallets at that price ("buy price"). Bottoms are formed by...

1) CAPITULATION: A huge number of coins are sold at a loss to new investors bringing down the cost basis (seen as a strong downward flow in the visual).

2) ACCUMULATION: Price moves above a strengthening area of high density

This is 2018/19 bottom.
Apr 1, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
By the numbers, @Greenpeace stands to lose up to $35.7m per year, which is 10% of its annual revenue, due to its stance against #Bitcoin. (1)
62.3% of Bitcoin investors that also support Greenpeace will be ending their Greenpeace subscriptions.

This poll is skewed towards passionate BTC followers (my audience)

Mar 25, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
"Macro headwinds" vs BTC fundamentals...

1) on-chain (spot) demand keeps climbing
2) futures demand returns for the first time since November
3) capitulation has signalled
4) the market has fully reset
5) accumulation has already happened

Probably a decoupling will continue. Risk-on/Risk-off correlations to equities is a short term effect. BTC trades this correlation due to short term speculators.

Bitcoin's internal demand fundamentals powered by its adoption curve is more powerful. Eventually the market decouples; the last time was Oct 2020.
Mar 23, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
In the last 8 months as a merchant accepting BTC I have received 1474 BTC payments.

14% of them were conducted on the Lightning Network. These were seamless.

The BTC on-chain payments were a shit show.

Good luck to BCH people who thought BTC on-chain payments was the way. My support staff dedicated hours every week to handle over and under payments.

Turns out many people pay by withdrawing from their exchange accounts and neglect to account for the exchange withdrawal fee.

I had one guy who accidentally sent me $200k (4 BTC at the time).
Mar 23, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Today, the average payment on the BTC L1 network costs 55 cents in fees, the equivalent to 11kWh in electricity. This is 1/1000th of what a US house consumes in a year.

In other words, the NYT article stated a number 200x higher than the truth. A single BTC transaction today contains 3.39 batched payments on average. This number continues to become more efficient as exchanges become more efficient in batching their withdrawals together.
Feb 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
IMO there's only 2 ways to gain significant wealth
1) Create or invest in a Cantillion Effect
2) Arbitrage Examples of (1)
- Create a growth company (shares being created)
- VC / angel investment, buying "new money" early
- crypto investment, also buying new money being created
- be a bank, even better a central bank licensed to print money
Feb 10, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
A short history of BTC democratisation, the picture book edition.... BTC went from $0.000007 (764 micro-pennies) to $69k. Unsurprising the BTC rich divested to fund buying small islands, large yachts, and lately, politicians.

Green: 1000+ BTC divesting since 2011
Yellow: 10k+ BTC divesting since 2011
Pink: 10-100 BTC divesting since 2017