Sentiment is bullish, but I doubt we'll break $8.5k volume profile PoC & 200MA. I think sideways, then downwards over the coming weeks to complete the third dead kitten, sliding downwards until a sustained sideways period to normalise volatility and NVT and a bull setup for 2019.
The 3rd dead kitten. Fractally speaking, I'm framing this last down leg as an oscillation around the main move. The green line is just magic crayons for short range TAs to determine, the retest target and rate of decline are the things I'm watching. NVT only mildly supports this.
Leveraged short positions now near all time high. Anyone got a spare $35m in their trade account? Should be enough to trigger all those stops for a payday.
See 12th April 2018. (Be care shorting out there.)
A trip down memory lane... The earliest #bitcoin price chart I've found is from bitcoincharts.com of "Bitcoin Market". This was pre-MtGox. On May 25, 2010 #Bitcoin was trading at 0.3 cents. 1000 BTC was traded that day, for a 24hr volume of $3 USD. @cryptotwitter
The famous Bitcoin Pizza Day was only 3 days earlier on 22 May 2010 when Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 BTC for two Papa John's pizzas. 0.25 cents per BTC. Apparently the market rate was 0.41 cents per BTC. (via @Investopedia)
During 2010, pre Mt Gox, alongside BitcoinMarket.com, there was also The Bitcoin Exchange in operation. I'd love to see their price data to reconstruct the full price chart 2009-2018, if anyone has it.
I think we are gonna go to $5500-5700 next, I can't see $7000 holding. Most likely we'll balance a bit, then we'll slide through. Long timeframes here, looking into June for rough timing of this to play out at a best guess. /1
1) NVT Signal is still too high. We need more blockchain transactional activity to justify the current price, or the price to drop to reconcile the difference. To drive up transactional activity in a bear slide is very unlikely IMO. /2
2) Volatility is still too high. I'm looking for a sustained low band of volatility which tends to be a signal for the end of the detox and the next accumulation phase. It's still got some time to ride down. /3
Interesting to see @PeterLBrandt is calling for a 65% chance wedge support support failing and a bottom of $3505 based on TA models. This would be inline with the peak to trough retrace we had in the 2013->2015 bear market. /1
The question to ask is whether we can unwind from Dec 2017's mania in the $6k-$7k range, or that fails and we're forced to consolidate lower like in 2014. This was the moment of truth in 2014. When support broke and we were forced to unwind at the lower levels... /2
But in 2018 I see none of the weakness of 2014. Those down-whiskers in 2014 were pretty tragic, buyers were weak. Here in 2018 the whiskers are very muted. There's lots of liquidity holding this thing up. /4
I believe Bitcoin will never fulfil all of the properties of money.
- store of value
- medium of exchange
- unit if account
I think it's time we stop thinking about money as a sea shell, or a lump of silver, or a digital token. /1
We're in the digital age, why are we thinking about money as tokens? Tokens come from an Agrarian age. Maybe it's time revisit this as if we were children born into a digital age with no historic hangover. /2
What if we take the required properties of money and separated them and built the perfect money with a design approach. What if money in the 21st century will be a tech stack, a systems design, not simply a digitisation of a lump of metal or seashell. /3
Lots of conflicting bull and bear calls right now on BTCUSD. I've been asked a lot regarding my opinion. Let's see what NVT ratio says... Note NVT is a very long range pricing tool good for interpreting inter-month moves. /1
Refresher. NVT values BTC as if it's a payment network like PayPal or Visanet, you can use the value flowing through the network as a proxy for earning and therefore network valuation. This holds true for Bitcoin's network too. woobull.com/introducing-nv… /2
Standard NVT is laggy and sees a rise in the dead cat bounce of the price cycle. Right now BTC is unwinding from the last mania phase, akin to mid-2014. It's still in the over-valued range well above its normal band. It needs to unwind more. /3
For example BTC lockup is only from store of value HODL investors. ETH is both this and ERC20 engineered lockup whereby ICO investors scoop ETH to pass to ICO projects who HODL them. Thus with the introduction of an ERC20 smart contract, you are engineering tokenomic lockup. /2
This is why I'm siding away from the common wisdom of protocols expressly having higher growth potential than apps. With apps you can design tokenomic lockups much more directly. /3
My thoughts on crypto portfolios... I think rebalancing a crypto portfolio to reduce risk exposure to a single crypto-asset is the most intuitive but completely wrong move long term HODL investors make. /1
Maybe your portfolio starts off nice and balanced and may look something like this... /2￼
Maybe ICO “C” is that coin you bought only because your friend Carl would not leave you alone and you were sick of mopping up his froth from your new tiled floors every time he visited. /3
Typically VCs invest in emerging tech expecting 1000x over 5yrs. To the public markets that would be called a bubble. Crypto = emerging tech that institutional money never got access to (yet the public did). Public market people therefore call it a bubble. /1
VCs look for a liquidity event, usually an IPO. Upon that event the valuation jumps solely on increased liquidity. Crypto markets include the liquidity multiplier from day one. /2
In a nutshell, I’m saying (1) crypto sized gains have been the norm in a similar industry unnoticed by the public. And (2) some ICO valuations are not so crazy when you add the impact of liquidity into their valuation. /3