Thread by @GordPennycook

We're likely to face an unprecedented situation where the incumbent refuses to concede. Although it may not be necessary, things would certainly be easier if Republicans viewed the election as legitimate.

How uphill of a battle will this be? Well, I ran a study with @DG_Rand...

Study was run on Prolific & Lucid on Friday. In total, we have 509 Biden voters & 218 Trump voters. The samples are *not* nationally representative and a bit small. But, some fairly clear results came out.

More info on the sample:

https://twitter.com/GordPennycook/status/1325170867509186560?s=20

A key initial Q is about people's priors. Do Trump voters believe it is *unlikely* that Biden won?

The answer is yes.

Reminder: This study was run on Friday when Biden was already well ahead & very likely to win. That he would win the popular vote was *never* in question.

On the right (since Biden won), there's been a lot of people saying that all the votes should be counted before calling the election.

We asked people to weigh the democratic process against their candidate becoming President. 34% of Trump voters sided *against* counting votes...

We also had Trump voters forecast whether they would accept the outcome if major media organizations called the election for Biden. Most indicated that they probably would not. My guess is that, if anything, this is an underestimate.

How important is it that Donald Trump concedes? Well, a majority of Trump voters (in this limited sample) indicated that they won't view the Biden Presidency as being legitimate unless Trump concedes. (Although note how many people are on the fence!)

What if the Republican establishment acknowledges that Biden won but Trump still doesn't concede?

Again, a majority of Republicans (in this sample) would side with Trump.

Interim summary: It's important to keep in mind that these are forecasts. It may be that people eventually change their minds. The goal here is to see how much of an uphill battle that will be and... well, it isn't looking great folks*.

*Caveats about the sample apply

But now for some better news: Partisan spite and positive views on partisan violence aren't as high as one might expect (perhaps I have weird priors here).

Here are the partisan spite items. In each case, the questions were only presented in the logical way (e.g., Democrats being asked about Dems hurting the Rep party, etc.

Spite is higher among Republicans, but majorities in both parties reject the statements.

What about support for partisan violence? Again, fairly strong rejection of these ideas for members of both parties (although, of course, it only takes one crazy dude...). Note that even the men in the sample indicate low agreement with these statements.

So, what correlates with whether Trump voters are favorable to accepting Biden as President?
Higher cognitive reflection correlates with siding with counting the votes v. retaining Trump (r=-.27), but does *not* consistently correlate with forecasts about accepting Biden (r's<.1)

Unsurprisingly, Trump voters who don't think COVID-19 is that big of a deal or who believe various misperceptions (e.g., masks don't work) report themselves as being less likely to accept Biden as President (r's from .19 to .39).

Trusting Breitbart (hyperpartisan conservative "news" outlet) correlates with people saying that Trump has to concede for Trump voters to view the election as legitimate (r = .19)... but, surprisingly, trusting Fox News is *not* (r = .07).

Similarly, trusting Fox News is associated with accepting the result of the election if major news organizations (including Fox) call it for Biden (r = .20). No such correlation with trust in Breitbart (r < .01).

In summary, Trump voters (as of Friday) had a strong prior that Trump won (despite it already being unlikely) and many indicated being unlikely to accept the results of the election unless Trump concedes. Fortunately, partisan spite & violence isn't as high as one might expect.

Being more reflective and analytic correlates with siding with democracy over party, but it seems that exposure to the right-wing media ecosystem (Breitbart being a central node) is likely to play a role in an unwillingness to accept Biden as President. Not great!

P.S. - The Four Seasons Total Landscaping thing is the funniest friggin thing ever. This has nothing to do with the thread but I've felt the compulsion to say this on Twitter since it happened.