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Julio Ricardo Varela

8 Nov, 15 tweets, 2 min read

Now doing vote percentages (as of this afternoon) for cities with largest number of Latinos living there (ranking based on Pew)

LA: Biden 71%-27%
NYC: Biden 68%-23% (avg across 5 boros)
Miami: Biden 53%-46%
Chicago: Biden 82%-16%
Houston: Biden 56%-43%
Riverside: Biden 55%-45%

Dallas: Biden 65%-33%
Phoenix: Biden 50%-48% (Maricopa)
San Antonio: 59%-41% (Bexar)
San Francisco: Biden 85%-13%
DC: Biden 92%-5%
McAllen: Biden 58%-41% (Hidalgo)
El Paso: Biden 66%-32%
Orlando: Biden 61%-38%
Denver: Biden 81%-17%
Las Vegas: Biden 54%-44% (Clark)

Austin: Biden 71%-26%
Atlanta: Biden 73%-26% (Fulton)
Philly: Biden 81%-18%
Tampa: Biden 53%-46% (Hillsborough)
Fresno: Biden 53%-45% (Fresno County)
San Jose: Biden 74%-24% (Santa Clara)
Boston: Biden 83%-16%
Sacramento: Biden 64%-33% (Sac County)

Bakersfield: Trump 50%-48% (Kern)
Albuquerque: Biden 61%-37% (Bernalillo)
Brownsville: Biden 56%-43% (Cameron)
Tucson: Biden
Seattle: Biden 75%-22% (King)
Oxnard: Biden 61%-37% (Ventura)
Stockton: Biden 60%-38% (San Joaquin)
Corpus Christi: Trump 51%-49% (Nueces)

Visalia: Trump 52%-47% (Tulare)
Salinas: Biden 71%-27% (Monterey)
Portland: Biden 79%-18% (Multnomah)
Laredo: Biden 61%-38% (Webb)
Modesto: Biden 51%-48% (Stanislaus)
Charlotte: Biden 67%-32% (Mecklenburg)
Salt Lake City: Biden 55%-41% (SL County)

Santa Barbara: Biden 67%-31% (SB County)
Minneapolis/St. Paul: Biden 71%-27% (Hennipen)
Providence: Biden 61%-38% (Providence County)
Kansas City: Biden 78%-19%
Detroit: Biden 95%-5%
Bridgeport: Biden 77%-22%
Hartford: Biden 87%-13%

Oklahoma City: Trump 49%-48% (Oklahoma County)
Milwaukee: Biden 69%-29% (Milwaukee County)
Merced: Biden 55%-43% (Merced County)
New Haven: Biden 82%-18%
Las Cruces: Biden 58%-40% (Doña Ana)
Fort Myers: Trump 59%-40% (Lee)
Nashville: Biden 65%-33%
Raleigh: Biden 63%-36%

Santa Rosa: Biden 79%-21% (Sonoma)
Indianapolis: Biden 63%-34%
Yuma: Trump 52%-46% (Yuma County)

San Diego Biden 61%-37% (San Diego County)

San Bernardino Biden 57%-42% (San Bernardino County)

Oakland Biden 82%-16% (Alameda County)

Tucson Biden 50%-49% (Pima County)

These are full results not broken down by Latino voters here. Just that these are the cities with most Latino living in each one.

The hypothesis is that in cities or counties with growing Latino population, vast majority voted Biden. More data will be shared when it gets drilled down.

If you want to get into breakdowns this is the link

pewresearch.org/hispanic/inter…

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More from @julito77

Julio Ricardo Varela

@julito77

9 Nov

@BostonGlobe

This is a top of fold story in today's @BostonGlobe and @jazmineulloa wrote a very strong story. Here's hoping Globe continues to provide more space for these types of stories and not just be one and done, which is what has happened in past. (Been a Globe subscriber since 1991.)

https://twitter.com/jazmineulloa/status/1325620253733347328

My one take on this excellent story is that I don't necessarily see it as "gains" for GOP since the level of support fell into historical patterns. It had to do more with how Dems didn't really need to win FL or TX. I will stand by that one. Because of AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA and GA.

So there are two angles here but not necessarily on the same level. We will see how much the data plays into it in the next coming weeks.

Read 4 tweets

Julio Ricardo Varela

@julito77

8 Nov

Ok, the one day I take a break from political news, am sharing a story. I manage and play in an Over50 soccer league. Our team has been playing for a while. Used to be Over40 but now we get old.

Today one of my teammates got a yellow card for cursing in English at the referee. Meanwhile, because I know all the Portuguese curse words, the other team was cursing at the referee during the first half all in Portuguese.

During halftime, I told the ref that I am calling BS. My guy says one curse word in English and you give him a yellow card. You are 10
players on other team cursing at you on Portuguese and you do nothing.

Read 6 tweets

Julio Ricardo Varela

@julito77

7 Nov

Ok, here goes, going to go down Pew's ranking of metro areas with highest number of Latinos and share whether Biden or Trump won/is leading county of metro area. Here goes:

Los Angeles: Biden
NYC: Biden
Miami: Biden
Houston: Biden
Riverside: Biden
Dallas: Biden
Phoenix: Biden

San Antonio: Biden
San Diego: Biden
San Francisco/Oakland: Biden
DC: Biden
McAllen: Biden
El Paso: Biden
Orlando: Biden
Denver: Biden
Las Vegas: Biden
Austin: Biden
Atlanta: Biden
Philly: Biden
Tampa: Biden
Fresno: Biden
San Jose: Biden
Boston: Biden
Sacramento: Biden

Bakersfield: Trump
Albuquerque: Biden
Brownsville: Biden
Tucson: Biden
Seattle: Biden
Oxnard: Biden
Stockton: Biden
Corpus Christi: Trump
Visalia: Trump
Salinas: Biden
Portland: Biden
Laredo: Biden
Modesto: Biden
Charlotte: Biden
Salt Lake City: Biden
Santa Barbara: Biden

Read 7 tweets

Julio Ricardo Varela

@julito77

7 Nov

@PewHispanic

Taking a moment to list 2020 % of Latino eligible voter breakdowns by state (10% or higher) and who won each of those states (source: @PewHispanic)

ARIZONA: 23.6% (BIDEN win)
CALIFORNIA: 30.5% (BIDEN win)
COLORADO: 15.9% (BIDEN win)
CONNECTICUT: 12.3% (BIDEN win)

FLORIDA: 20.5% (TRUMP win)
ILLINOIS: 11.6% (BIDEN win)
NEVADA: 19.7% (BIDEN win)
NEW JERSEY: 15.3% (BIDEN win)
NEW MEXICO: 42.8% (BIDEN win)
NEW YORK: 14.8% (BIDEN win)
RHODE ISLAND: 11.3% (BIDEN win)
TEXAS: 30.4% (TRUMP win)

LINK HERE: pewresearch.org/hispanic/inter…

As for some other swing states with less that 10% of Latino eligible voter state share, here is the breakdown:

GEORGIA: 5% (leaning BIDEN)
MICHIGAN: 3.4% (BIDEN win)
MINNESOTA: 3.1% (BIDEN win)
NEW HAMPSHIRE: 2.9% (BIDEN win)
NORTH CAROLINA: 4.4% (leaning TRUMP)

Read 4 tweets

Julio Ricardo Varela

@julito77

5 Nov

Can we please stop with the "Trump gained with Latino voters" hot takes? If you talked to ANY academic, commentator or journalist who has covered Latino voters over the last 40 years, the GOP has historically gotten a third of Latino voters nationally.

NOBODY who has been following Trump and what his campaign did this cycle is surprised by the support he got. NOBODY.

The conversation needs to be this instead: there was NEVER a unified Latino voting bloc on the national level. Ever.

Start thinking about how to specifically address these pockets:

SW/W (consistently voting blue)
Midwest (voters that can take you over top)
The South (see what's happening in Georgia/NC)
Texas (the elusive Holy Grail that will change)
Florida (not the only game in town any more)

Read 12 tweets