Thread by @jalilword

I had a look at the Budget and penned doen my opinions. Much has already been analysed on the nitty gritty details. I want to focus on 10 points from the strategic perspective. This is a thread.

(1) Way forward. There was not mich detail on the strategic direction of how C-19 economy will look like. What are our sources of revenue? How are we getting more income amidst poorer business sentiment? ..

.. I’d have liked the Budget to have been broken into short term (getting C-19 under control & jobs), medium term (re-opening country & borders) & longer term (structural)

(2) Recipients. There was many cash handout announced. I’d like to focus on how effective is the data we have to ensure all the affected ones are receiving help? B40 require monthly cash assistance, one off won’t be enough ..

.. there’s also those who have had salaries cut, working half the week. In future underemployment will also be large problem. More pertinent households don’t have enough savings to last too long

(3) Projection. Govt’s revenue forecast is too ambitious. Many govts globally are guilty thinking vaccine is the golden pill that will solve everything. Reality is it will take years for vaccine to be discovered, teated, approved, manufactured, purchased & distributed ..

.. Even with all this, vaccine effectiveness is not guaranteed. C-19 will continue to linger, and govts need to start thinking about how to go about as normal within some SOPs. How long can we use lockdown option, or close our borders?

(4) Digitalisation. This is an opportunity to rest our priorities. Most critical is digitalisation of schools. I’d have liked to see all studnets having access to devices, schools wired and syllabus prepared for online learning. C-19 or not, something worth investing in

.. this pandemic has resulted in the digital & inequality gap being stretched further. This leads to social issues. Education wise too many children with no resources will be left behind.

(5) Job creation. Good initiatives on reskilling workers. But must note that for speed of execution, existing players should be utilised rather than recreating the wheel. I’d also like to see how are job being created to house these reskilled workers..

(6) Tax system. Revamp needed here to ensure a fairer (not higher) collection. Now is a bad time for any form of taxes, but use this time to think about how this money spent can be recouped. Our income tax system is not comprehensive enough

(7) Tourism. Biggest multiplier effecf on economy with benefits for all from time traveller lands to departing. We should consider Thailand’s plan to attract travellers on long term stays into country. We must reopen on staggered basis. C-19 is not going away anytime soon

(8) Role of GLCs. Start now be planning exit from business, slowly. Keep the strategic ones. Exit others. Inject more entrepreneurship & creativity. Social obligation has been used too often, to poor economic returns. We can invest that money elsewhere ..

(9) Tracking. Every year we see allocation for projects. How was that spent? Did it achieve its intended objective? Would we do it again? We need to start tracking these so we can make informed decisions in future. Otherwise we are falling into same trap of making mistakes ..

.. This is important because if the govt plans on borrowing more money to fund its budget, having proper transparency & tracking is vital for public confidence.

(10) Politics. All economics will be naught if we dont get politics right. Now is the time for bipartisanship, leadership & ownership. All must sync together. Would have liked to see more effort on that and breaking down that silo mentality

In summary, every govt has a tough job managing this. No right answer. I’d say copy what other countries have done well. Why recreate something when answers already there. We are not in a unique situation here. Sekian.