A few links on the nonsense claim that Benford’s Law proves “irregularities” in the Biden vote tallies.

First, it’s far from clear that Benford’s Law is useful for detecting election fraud:

cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Second, even if it were, district level tallies are likely too fragmented for the law to apply. When you aggregate the data into larger geographical groupings, it’s fine:

alpha-xone.medium.com/do-bidens-vote…
Third, the posts you’ve probably seen on this have manipulated the data.

There’s also lots more discussion of the first two points at the link.

skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/4978…
Finally, this thread by @gelbach succinctly lays out the problems with this conspiratorial garbage.

IMO, Benford’s Law *is* useful in one way: as a filter. If someone you’re reading is pushing it, you can safely ignore anything else that person writes about election integrity.

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More from @radleybalko

10 Nov
So shortly after the 2016 election, I pointed out how odd it was that the Reason homepage was dominated by stories either mocking and ridiculing the left for being fearful of what was to come, or articles about how Trump might actually be good for libertarians.
Now, in 2020, we have one party so upset about the election, they’re openly fomenting a crisis of democracy. Here’s the Reason homepage today. There’s one article about all of that. There’s a hell of a lot more about the threat posed by Joe Biden. And more riciduling the left. Image
I’m picking on Reason. And I’ll add that there are people there who have sufficiently grasped the threat the last four years, despite the general editorial direction of the magazine. But it really underscores the disappointment I’ve had with my fellow libertarians in general ...
Read 13 tweets
4 Oct
These accounts of utter recklessness among Trump’s inner circle are jaw dropping.

But one thing about them I find puzzling: Trump is a notorious germaphobe. He’s also a coward. And his conversations with Woodward make clear that he knew COVID was both dangerous and airborne.
So I’ve just assumed all along that as he publicly played down the virus for political reasons, he was taking every precaution to protect himself. Like those rallies where everyone around him was required to mask up, but no one else was.

This of course would be consistent...
... with Trump’s general habit of going through life thinking he plays by a different set of rules.

So what happened? The best explanation I can come up with is some combination of him thinking his “great genes” made him impervious to COVID, and that he started to believe his...
Read 5 tweets
25 Sep
When the Hudson v. Michigan decision came down, many of us predicted it would basically unleash cops to render the knock & announce requirement all but meaningless. That's exactly what happened. See Louisville:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 11 tweets
24 Sep
So a few years ago, @ScottGreenfield, @Volokh, @Popehat and others wrote about a case involving Texas magistrate named Dwight Goains.

A woman said DEA agents had beaten her while raiding her sister's store. A friend posted photos and an account on Facebook.

Goains was ...
... in charge of setting the store owner's bail. He granted it, but with crazy conditions: The sister had to get the guy who posted the story on FB to take it all down. She also had to make a public apology in two newspapers, admit the raid was ...

blog.simplejustice.us/2014/05/23/gag…
... legitimate, and state that her sister is the one who assaulted the DEA agents.

So as it turns out, Goains was a defense attorney before he was a magistrate. He represented defendants in capital cases. The problem: He wasn't very good at that, either.

Ready for the kicker?
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep
This is wrong and willfully misleading. It was absolutely a no-knock warrant (and an illegal one at that).

The cops just claimed they changed their mind at the scene. And yes, ONE neighbor said he heard police announce ONE time. 11 other neighbors heard no announcement at all.
If 11 of 12 neighbors in an apartment building didn’t hear an announcement, then the announcement clearly didn’t provide sufficient notice. Notice is the whole point of the knock & announce requirement.

Which means this was indistinguishable from a no-knock raid.
The question is, why would Walker, a registered gun owner who had nothing to hide, knowingly fire on police officers?

The answer is he didn’t. The cops know he didn’t. Cameron knows he didn’t. If they thought otherwise, they wouldn’t have dropped the attempted murder charges.
Read 5 tweets
7 Sep
I mean, I guess we should blame protesters for this sort of thing happening the last 35 years, right?
Just to expand on this a bit: The argument from people like Weinstein is, “See, violent protesters! This is why we need police militarization.” But this misses some important cause and effect. Police were militarized to fight the drug war. And overwhelmingly, the tools ...
Read 15 tweets

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