It’s really striking how all the GOP ads imply Dem reps are crooked and the puppet of an unpopular party leader.

I wonder if Dems could have alleged something similar, but decided to talk about health care instead? Nah, probably not, that would be crazy.
Moderate Dems: “We all ran behind Biden! It’s AOC’s fault!”

Me: “Did you... did you try to tie your opponent to Donald Trump and yourself to Joe Biden?”

Moderate Dems: “No! We spent three years specifically avoiding it and begging Pelosi not to nationalize our races!”
In a little bit of historic irony, it was specifically Conor Lamb’s 2017 special election that convinced House Dems that the key to winning was to deemphasize Donald Trump. At the time, a few of us on here were very concerned over it, begged the party to rethink.
Even as late as August, Lamb’s Trump-avoidant strategy was being cited as a model for Biden. Here’s the New York Times using Lamb’s experience to say the answer was to focus narrowly on policy and avoid talking Trump. How did that work out???

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More from @whstancil

10 Nov
Right now Republicans are going on TV every night and calling the election a fraud.

Meanwhile, the Democrat who just won by millions of votes, and his entire party, are still in their perpetual defensive huddle, afraid to use any tool of government to protect themselves.
I’m not “imagining” any tools. You can subpoena the GSA heads. You can subpoena the resigned DOJ attorney and other members of DOJ. You can impeach Barr. You do not have to simply sit and wait for all crises to resolve themselves.
Read 5 tweets
10 Nov
People are worried about coups, but the thing causing me real despair is the prospect of living for decades in an ever-tightening vice of right-wing gerrymandering and court packing, in which there is no election victory large enough to permit anyone left of center to govern
Self-styled moderates in the political class see this as salutary, because they think it forces compromise. But it doesn’t, even in the most optimistic rendering, because the right has no such limitation. The right can easily secure governing trifectas with a minority of the vote
The undemocratic structure of our government has created a one-way ratchet: Republicans win total control and further clamp down on civil society, then government becomes divided, creating an interregnum in which they block any swing in the other direction.
Read 8 tweets
8 Nov
What’s frustrating about the Georgia runoffs is that Democrats seem almost certain to approach them with the exact same policy-focused strategy that just lost them a bunch of downballot races, simply because they don’t know how to do anything else.
Democrats tell themselves a particular story about what wins elections:
-you have to say how you’ll help voters
-you have to connect issues to real kitchen-table consequences
-etc.

What bothers me is that this story seems grounded in what sounds nice more than proven efficacy.
I think there’s a very different story Democrats could be telling, that what drives people to the polls isn’t self-interest and policy information but high emotions. Scared, angry, disgusted, hopeful, inspired people: they all vote, and their feelings help determine their vote.
Read 7 tweets
6 Nov
Biden needs to understand the GOP plan moving forward is crystal clear:
-commander his appointments
-pass no legislation at all
-cripple the economy with no stimulus
-shred voting rights with SCOTUS
-gerrymander
-blow out 2022 midterms
-lock in permanent minority rule
-win 2024
Everything that goes wrong from here on out will be blamed on Democrats. The Democrats only have a few tools here: the executive, a massive, majoritarian coalition, and a GOP split over Trump, with none of Trump's ability to produce turnout waves in presidential elections.
Biden needs to go on the all-out offense in every possible way. He can't rest on his laurels or call for national healing, because it's trivially easy for the GOP will use any reprieve to transform him into Jimmy Carter 2.0 and a far-right restoration in four years.
Read 5 tweets
6 Nov
I love the idea that what motivated literally tens of millions of never-before-seen voters to the polls is that they read deep into Biden’s policy briefs and discovered some of his plans were arguably more progressive than Clinton’s
There is a fundamental and unshakeable truth about voter behavior that is constantly ignored:

CHANGES IN VOTER BEHAVIOR MUST BE A PRODUCT OF INFORMATION VOTERS ACTUALLY HAVE IN THEIR POSSESSION
What you see instead, literally every day, is people ascribing shifts to facts that voters - particularly marginal, low-engagement voters - almost certainly don’t know and have no reliable way to be informed about.
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
Democrats, to each other: "Trump is so awful, so crooked, so racist. How could anyone vote for him?"

Democrats, to regular voters: "I'm not here to talk about Trump. I'm here to talk about health care."
The overriding assumption appears to have been that Trump's badness was completely self-evident in all its particulars to everyone, and thus that anyone who ignored that badness was a moral monster completely immune to any appeal not rooted in racism or financial self-interest.
Seems like, if your opponent is a racist impeached twenty-times-accused sexual assaulter who self-deals with government resources and is too dumb to speak in complete sentences or understand basic government, you should... say so! Just say so out loud! Point it out, constantly!
Read 5 tweets

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