BLM Plaza in DC on Saturday was a microcosm of anti-Trump America. A couple of demonstrations were planned for the afternoon, but people really started thronging there around midday, after major media outlets called the presidential race for Biden/Harris.
That impromptu rally lasted into the night, and it sounds like the main themes were celebration and relief. Lots of booze was consumed, and fireworks got shot off.
Not everyone on the plaza was feeling so relieved, though. Late afternoon, a group organized by @DcProtests marched to BLM Plaza to keep pushing the call for racial justice, for defunding police, and for justice for Karon Hylton. dc.medill.northwestern.edu/blog/2020/11/0…
That group eventually marched to Dupont Circle, where they hooked up with the anti-fascist group They/Them Collective, who then marched to BLM Plaza and called out the revelers for missing the bigger picture.
So, in one space, you had a bunch of relieved progressives, a group of BLM activists reminding them that the hard work on racial justice remains to be done, and a group of anti-fascist anarchists who see both Biden and Trump as expressions of the same rotten system. /end
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IMO the politics of the language around this stuff matters a lot more than the academic definitions right now. That said, I do think Trump and the GOP's ongoing actions constitute an attempted consolidation of incumbent advantage, a.k.a. autogolpe. Outcome TBD.
Since the early 1990s, consolidation of incumbent advantage has been the dominant mode of democratic breakdown worldwide, so there are plenty of relevant examples. Coups involving the direct use or threat of force have become comparatively rare.
A consolidation of incumbent advantage occurs when the incumbent party uses its power to effectively ensure that it stays in power, even as "competitive" elections continue. They usually involve tilting the electoral playing field, but they can involve "judicial coups" as well.
From my passes so far through yesterday's news and posts, it looks like pro-Trump, "stop the steal" protests continued to spread around the country, although in many cases the crowds remained modest in size (i.e., dozens, not hundreds).
Pro-Trump crowds returned to vote-counting centers in PA and AZ, and protests echoing the president's baseless claims of election fraud also popped up in places like NC, FL, OK, and CA. For example... newson6.com/story/5fa61251…
I'm a biased observer, but in reporters' interviews with participants, it seemed like the main theme wasn't "There is clear evidence of cheating" so much as "Trump had huge rallies and is so popular, so it's impossible that he lost, so cheating is the only explanation."
Trump's Rose Garden remarks last night chilled me to the bone. I saw a man who fantasizes about ruling America with a "firm hand" relishing an opportunity to act out those fantasies, to become the kind of "strong man" he admires.
This is a man who, 30 years ago, criticized Gorbachev as "weak" for losing control of the USSR and praised the Chinese Communist Party for showing us "the power of strength" in Tienanmen Square.
This is a president of the United States who openly sympathized with heavily armed gunmen threatening Michigan's legislators and saw "good people" among the white supremacists in Charlottesville but sees antifa as a vicious terrorist group and black protesters as "thugs."
I don't have a job right now, but I used to get paid to build models to try to forecast rare events emerging from complex systems. So, for what it's worth, the two best things I've read so far on forecasting this pandemic are...
.@robjhyndman's blog post on forecasting COVID-19, in which he warns that, "Forecasting pandemics is harder than many people think," and "fitting simple models to the available data is pointless, misleading and dangerous." robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/fore…