Thread by @ProfLAppleby

Today we have released suicide data for 2020 covering several parts of England, total population 9 million. The month by month figures are reassuring: they show no rise in suicide following lockdown.

Today’s tweets & a few more as a thread. @NCISH_UK
documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?D…

As always when we present graphs & data, we want to stress that these numbers represent real people, real lives lost, real families devastated. We work a lot with bereaved families & never forget the individual tragedies that lie behind our statistics. @NCISH_UK

Our report combines “real time” suicide numbers for several areas of England for 2020 to give a national picture. Monthly figs vary, with no pattern & no change at lockdown: average pre-lockdown 84.0, post-lockdown 85.4.

Our 2020 post-lockdown figures are around 7% higher than for the same period in 2019. This has to be seen in the context of rising suicide rates in England & improving data collection. Our main comparison is between the pre- v post-lockdown months.

“Real time” is a term referring to collection of data on suspected suicides as they happen, without waiting for inquest. Necessary because inquests can take several months, too late for the close monitoring we need during a pandemic.

Several areas have well established real time data systems & are in the study. They are not named but are in different parts of the country. The 9m people they cover make up 1/6 of England’s population (this is larger than most countries in Europe), enough to draw conclusions.

It’s important to acknowledge that for many, mental health has been worse in the pandemic. But this seems not to have led to higher suicide rates. Reasons are unclear but it may reflect variable experience, a protective effect of social cohesion or, for some, additional support.

Our conclusions:
•the large rise in suicide that many feared has not occurred
•there appears to have been no increase, at least in these areas
•does not rule out rise in some areas or groups or as pandemic continues
•too early to estimate long term economic impact

Our finding that suicide did not rise after lockdown is consistent with recent reports from Victoria (Aus), Brit Columbia (Can), Massachusetts & Norway. Only Japan has followed a different pattern (fall, then rise). Position is unclear in lower income countries.

In time, I suspect we'll move away from a single question about whether the pandemic has affected suicide rates to something more complex: in which people, during which phase, living where? After all, the impact of Covid-19 itself has not been uniform.

For now, though, there is some reassurance in what we & several other countries are finding. It emphasises the need to continue to support those who are anxious, lonely or traumatised, to maintain services, to come together as supportive communities & to remain vigilant.