People are asking on Saudi deposits of $2 bn going out impact on PKR
Not much of an impact as the amount has to be paid by SBP - not banks, and potential replacement has been arranged. However, if nothing to replace it would have an psychological impact due to low reserves.
1/4
Its important to note the timeline.
1. Saudi $1 bn roll over is due this Nov - not happening - ministry is saying that this is to replace by Chinese loan - similar price- as this is on 3.2% - this is almost Libor +3%.
2. Another $1 bn of Saudi is due to rollover in Mar 21 2/4
Its not certain on its rollover - chances are this to be paid back
3. More importantly, $2 billion from UAE is maturing in Jan 21. Nothing on its rollover yet - usually they follow the line of Saudi - govt should look for its replacement too. 3/4
4. Financial advisor for Euro Bond is to be finalized soon. Government should issue bonds to replace these.
5. There are foreign policy repercussions of such bilateral loans -for ex PM not attending Islamic Summit in Malaysia
6. Govt should build reserves on mkt based flows4/4

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More from @AliKhizar

9 Nov
#Currencyupdate
1. PKR appreciated in Oct due to better external flows - SBP's forward liabilities are down by $919mn in Oct- implying that PKR is appreciating despite the fact that SBP is buying from the market 1/4
2. In the last 3 trading days PKR is not appreciating, rather it is actually USD depreciation due to Trump exit - PKR is being depreciated against CYN, Euro and GBP in the last three sessions

3. Current account surplus trend is continued in Oct
2/4
4. Remittances to remain upbeat till travel is back to pre-Covid normal. According to a survey - many people from middle East used to send money back through friends/family visiting there. Now its coming from formal channels. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
7 Nov
Good show by Khanzada. But he needs to see things holistically. He is right on RLNG historic prices, and on irrelevant response of @SHABAZGIL
But @shazbkhanzdaGEO needs to understand the energy chain complexities before commenting on balatent Furnace oil use. 1/n
Govt had a few considerations
1) to utilize FO produced by local refineries in order to clear the inventories and keep refineries running not only enable to produce petrol n diesel but also for continuation of domestic oil n gas production 2/n
2) The single argument why RLNG was not procured when prices were at 12-years low is cuz Pakistan could not utilize that RLNG into it's system due to excess supply of gas n lower demand for power at that point . And the global prices were low cuz of similar problems 3/n
Read 5 tweets

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