Thread by @ryanmofarrell

Ethiopian National Defense Force takes control of the Humera airport, ~55km southeast of Humera town. Seems likely they're trying to secure the border with Sudan, which would be the TPLF's only land route to the outside world

A look at some of Ethiopia's airbases, starting with Bahir Dar, which has this really funky looking building

Next is Bishoftu, outside Addis, the most important base in the country going back nearly a century. Aircraft of all types, and at least one nearby air defense battery

Now is Alula Aba Nega airport outside Mek'ele, capital of Tigray, which saw fighting recently.

Last is Dire Dawa, further east, which from August imagery seems primarily a helicopter base, though you can also see some (most?) of Ethiopia heavy airlift capacity there as well

Geolocation of where bodies were gathered after the November 9th massacre of dozens of Amhara civilians in May Cadera by TPLF, before they retreated east from the ENDF offensive. satellites.pro/Ethiopia_map#1…;

https://mobile.twitter.com/Ethi0pianist/status/1326628088793489410

Imagery from May shows how Eritrea keeps pretty much its entire air force in Asmara

Minimum territory seized by ENDF and allies in Tigray, confirmed through geolocations and/or the TPLF admitting the loss. Obviously the areas that Addis *claims* to have seized are quite a bit more, but I've not been able to confirm them.

Current situation according to an ENDF press conference today, Federal control in red, TPLF control in blue - some notable differences, namely Adigrat

November 14, 2020 footage confirms that Amhara region's Special Force (regional paramilitary) took control of Adi Ramets last week, indicating a major (and seemingly uncontested) push into Tigray's western highlands facebook.com/10003467500036…

November 23, 2020 footage from Aksum airport confirms ENDF advance east along Highway 2, indicating capture of Adi Daro, Shire, Slehleka and Wukro

Fire detected on Nov 26 at Almeda Textiles factory on western outskirts of Adwa - could indicate that the front is between Aksum airport and Adwa

Pretty symbolic of how politics has overwhelmed the export-oriented growth-centered agenda of the TPLF era almedatextiles.com

ENDF claimed some pretty sweeping advances, both north and south of Mekelle. Pretty clear that the goal is to surround the city from both sides. facebook.com/EBCzena/posts/…;

Haven't yet seen any solid visual evidence of Abiy's claim that Mekelle has been seized, but there was a major fire on November 27 at what appears to be some sort of military storage site outside Wukro

https://twitter.com/AbiyAhmedAli/status/1332740110039846914

As best as I can tell, this seems to be the current situation:

-yellow is what ENDF is confirmed to have taken
-orange is what ENDF claims to have taken

(confirmation is either through geolocating ground footage or TPLF also admitting they lost it)

Just to throw this out there, I do have some background on Ethiopia, though my research centered on the Oromo nationalist parties which then bore the brunt of Abiy's authoritarianism. Surreal seeing everything that has happened since I visited last Jan

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1282752824900820993

Looking back through fire data, first near several military bases around Adi Hageray on November 13, as well as on the southwestern side of the town itself

By November 16, 2020, there was a fire in Adi Daro town, and by November 17, 2020, there were major fires in the industrial area on the northern side of Shire town

In northeast Tigray, there were fires near military bases on the road from the border to Adigrat on November 20, and more fires near military bases northwest of Freweyni on November 21

Together gives a rough picture of the route of the ENDF's advances, with clear patterns from Shiraro to Shire between November 13-17 and from the Eritrean border to Freweyni between November 20-21

Necessary caveat is that fires could have started at any time for a variety of reasons, so it doesn't necessarily indicate ENDF positions on those dates - fires could be long range artillery, air strikes or retreating TPLF burning munitions

Timelapse between November 19 and 22 shows how buildings were destroyed in the army base between the Eritrean border and Adigrat, at 14.354193, 39.437274

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1333442957605650433

Timelapse between November 19 and 24 shows how buildings were destroyed in the army base northwest of Freweyni, at 14.080920, 39.556813

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1333442957605650433

h/t to @john_marquee for both of these

Footage from Mekelle confirms that ENDF are in control of the city, both on its eastern edges near the university [], in the middle of the town and Martyrs' Monument near downtown []

Fires in central Mekelle on December 2, 2020 and near the central market in Adigrat on December 5, 2020 suggest quite a bit more urban unrest in Tigray than Ethiopian state media is letting on

https://twitter.com/RAbdiAnalyst/status/1335818471842648064

Fires at a military base outside Yechila on December 4 suggest a possible new front into Tigray from Amhara region, despite Abiy's claimed cessation of combat operations on November 28

https://twitter.com/AbiyAhmedAli/status/1332740110039846914

Timelapse of destruction at a military base just north of Yechila, between December 2 and December 7, goo.gl/maps/KKfZvcrxK…

Seems fires have continued at the Almeda Textiles factory on the western outskirts of Adwa, with fires first detected on November 27, and also detected on December 6 & 7; timelapse below:

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1332200855836221440

December 4 footage from Korem confirms that ENDF hold the town, h/t to @MapEthiopia for posting the link to the footage

December 8 footage from Maychew confirms that ENDF hold the town, h/t to @MapEthiopia for posting link to the footage

Fires around a military base on December 11 indicate that ENDF are pushing away from Highway 2 into Tigray's interior goo.gl/maps/t3sHQuAMp…

Timelapse shows fires burned much of the area to the east of the base, but the base itself appears intact; possibly shelling that missed?

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1337530332845912065