A thread on Friday night’s massacre at Mpondwe Lhubirha secondary school by the ADF, during which at least 42 people including 38 students were killed, 7 others injured and at least six kidnapped and taken across the border into DR Congo. Officials stated that around 5 ADF fighters locked the doors of the boys’ dormitory before burning it, while killing female students with firearms and machetes. A guard and three local residents were also killed. Graphic pictures of the aftermath corroborate this account.

EAC is denying as fake a dramatic letter of resignation by now-replaced EAC Regional Force chief. Fake or not, tensions between Kinshasa and EACRF over its role and mandate are getting quite serious, even as thousands of EAC troops have deployed to Congo

https://twitter.com/jumuiya/status/1652280233150623744

The EAC's Regional Force was designed to deploy thousands of troops into Congo to actively assist the Congolese state in dismantling rebel groups that refused to join the demobilization process. The language was pretty clear: “contain, defeat and eradicate negative forces”

Some interesting - and troubling - photos published by Islamic State of clashes between its "Mozambique Province" - locally called Al Shabaab - and Mozambican & SADC troops in Cabo Delgado since the beginning of "Operation Vulcão IV" on January 1 🧵 On January 8, Mozambican army and SADC troops were ambushed near Litandacua in Macomia district, during which IS claimed that a "reconnaissance plane" was captured. In today's Al Naba newsletter, IS published a photo of a fairly intact DJI Mavic 2 zitamar.com/insurgents-and…

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the horrendous atrocities that have come with it really ought to discredit anyone fantasizing about the collapse of the liberal world order and it’s replacement with some new “multipolar” or “post-liberal” successor. There are plenty of precedents, Syria being the most blatant, but it’s no small thing that Putin explicitly framed this war as the death blow to the post-1945 order. That order and what it promised never existed as advertised, but as a set of normative expectations it mattered.

Very excited to announce that our new book "Islamic State in Africa: The Emergence, Evolution, and Future of the Next Jihadist Battlefront" by @warnjason with myself, @MENASTREAM and @Pol_Sec_Analyst is now available! hurstpublishers.com/book/the-islam… In "Islamic State in Africa" we cover trajectories of nine IS affiliates - local insurgencies that pledged allegiance to IS - on the continent:
-IS Libya
-IS Algeria
-IS Sinai
-IS Tunisia
-ISWAP (Lake Chad)
-ISWAP (Greater Sahara)
-IS Somalia
-ISCAP (Congo)
-ISCAP (Mozambique)

These kinds of calls-to-arms after a failed “final offensive” demonstrate some incredible desperation on the part of Abiy’s government.

Policy makers *really* need to be thinking about the collapse of the PP, how it might happen and how to pick up the pieces afterwards.

https://twitter.com/addisstandard/status/1454881141626966018

A few key dynamics (plus a million others that I can’t possibly understand or explain): TPLF isn’t going to reestablish the EPRDF system in Addis. Too much has happened, they don’t want it, and they can’t impose it. Whatever emerges will be some PP rump or something new entirely.

New piece with @Weissenberg7 about the rapid growth in ISCAP-ADF's area of operations since 2017, hints of a new strategy to build support amongst neighboring civilian communities and the nature of communications with IS's central apparatus longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/… ISCAP-ADF has operated in southern Ituri for several years, but @KivuSecurity has tracked an 82% increase in attacks in the area since June 1, carrying out 66 attacks that have killed 207 people and displaced tens of thousands.

Leaning *very* heavily on @hengenahm's amazing work, this is as best I can figure the situation in #Panjshir: Taliban overran NRF mountaintop positions (dark green) and crossed the mountains above Gulbahar, giving them access to the valley, then moved troops as far up as Tawakh

https://twitter.com/hengenahm/status/1434233817909301254

Well, looks like the Taliban have taken the Panjshir governor's office in Barazak. Judging by the sun, this footage was taken around 12:30pm

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1434740506312036353

Islamic State released photos today of the June 27 ISCAP-ADF attack on Manyala village in Ituri that IS first claimed yesterday - a quick thread on what open source tools, Islamic State propaganda and local reporting reveals about this attack Local reports described an attack on Manzobe village on Sunday June 27 in the afternoon, with the first Tweet mentioning this specific attack being posted the next morning on June 28th at 4:27am EST/10:27am CAT

https://twitter.com/wabinfos/status/1409428109561110530

Ethiopian National Defense Force takes control of the Humera airport, ~55km southeast of Humera town. Seems likely they're trying to secure the border with Sudan, which would be the TPLF's only land route to the outside world A look at some of Ethiopia's airbases, starting with Bahir Dar, which has this really funky looking building

ISCAP-ADF carried out a prison break operation at Kangbayi Central Prison on the outskirts of Beni city, freeing ~1300 detainees; Islamic State media outlets quickly claimed the operation
radiookapi.net/2020/10/20/act… It's notable that a sizable military base is directly across the road - which the IS claim also said was attacked - and judging by the number of buildings, likely had ~100 soldiers; operation was well-planned, and says much about the FARDC's inability to prevent major incursions

So in light of "Al-Shabaab's" (ISCAP-Mozambique) attack on Kitaya - just across the the Rovuma river in southern Tanzania - here's a quick thread on jihadist militancy in Tanzania, its ties to the Islamic State, and its role in Mozambique's growing insurgency Salafism has had a longstanding presence in Tanzania, really gaining prominence in the 1980s as students returned from studying in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere on scholarships from BAKWATA, the government-affiliated Muslim council.

Rapid collapse of rebel lines from Qalaat al-Madiq to Kafr Naboudah is pretty surprising, as is silence from Turkey, whose troops have been directly attacked by regime forces on multiple occasions. Regime forces are within 1.5km of the Turkish observation point on Jabal Shashabo. Area was primarily held by Ahrar al-Sham and small FSA groups, but HTS defeated them in January and imposed a supervisory role for itself. HTS appears to now simply be abandoning it, with those other "green" rebels in tow.