Thread by @2020Partnership

1/ Earlier this week Steve Cortes, a senior advisor to the Trump campaign, posted a series of four videos and an op-ed in which he claims to have uncovered statistical evidence that delegitimizes Biden’s win. These claims are based on recycled, debunked disinformation.

2/ His first argument is that Wisconsin’s turnout was improbably high. This was debunked on November 5th. The number cited (>90%) was incorrect. Actual turnout was 72.3%, based on the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot.

https://twitter.com/USATODAY/status/1324853896720928769

3/ The 2nd argument asserts that Biden’s 2020 vote share “improbably” outperformed Obama’s 2012 votes in some areas. This is cherry-picking; any number of locations had large swings towards either candidate due to a range of expected factors. washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/…

4/ His 3rd argument leverages a widely shared claim regarding “Biden-only ballots” – Biden votes that were not otherwise Democrat. Cumulatively these tickets amount to just 2% nationally. This claim is misleading and has been debunked:

washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…

5/ He finally argues that the rate of rejection of PA mail-in ballots was “too low.” This is the result of a successful effort by state officials to simplify the vote-by-mail process and educate voters on how to properly fill out their ballots, not fraud

nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/…

6/ Two weeks ago we shared concern that post-election narratives seeking to delegitimize a shift in vote share from one party to another would employ “bad statistics.” The above claims misapply stats and provides no significant evidence.
eipartnership.net/news/what-to-e…