Thread by @SimonPease1

1/11 A few thoughts on what is probably going on in No.10 and more widely in the Tory Party at the moment. (Has to be a thread but not too long.)

I’ve long thought Johnson looks increasingly like the Tories’ “fall guy”. He has to stay in place until B-Day on 31 December.

2/11 After that, as the reality of Brexit becomes apparent, and there is time to think about a Public Enquiry into the handling of C19, he has served his purpose. Of course this can’t be the public reason, because the whole party is implicated in both.

3/11 If I were a Tory, the thought of this accident prone leader taking the Party into the next election would make my blood run cold, especially if, as it may, the Opposition is getting its act together.

4/11 Johnson is toxic to a significant proportion of the marginal voters after his handling of C19. As the Brexit disaster unfolds (deal or not) he will become even more so.

5/11 So the dysfunctional operation in No.10 and various missteps and U-turns, particularly FSM, the whipped vote, making Tory MPs widely reviled, then doing the U turn all help to put the focus elsewhere.

6/11 We know the plotting is going on. And the readymade excuses are there; he’s not a details person; he was affected by C 19; he was swayed by people with no experience of running govt; he’s been a “great chap, but”

7/11 Which is why we now see a putsch led by his nearest and dearest in No.10; they can see the fight looming. He must shed the elements most disliked in the Party and outside (Cain, Cummings et.al).

8/11 He must have a “makeover”, and become a cuddly Conservative, being sympathetic to the Scots, embracing the Green agenda and so on. (This will be, excuse the term, puke making)

9/11 I doubt it will work. Because being him, he will probably trip over something again quite soon. C19 is not over by a long way. And because he is not a leader; he is too swayed by the last person to talk to him.

10/11 So I think by March, maybe give or take a month, we will see a real cat fight developing in the Tory Party. No idea who will win. The Right are gearing up. Those opposed to them are quieter but that won’t last.

11/11 My outside bet would be Jeremy Hunt to take over, to be emollient and “repair” the damage.

Ends