My favorite passage from 100 baggers by @chriswmayer.
See in the thread ⬇️
Imagine if a friend had introduced you to Warren Buffett in 1972
and told you, “I’ve made a fortune investing with this Buffett guy
over the past ten years, you must invest with him.”
So you check out Warren Buffett and find that his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway, had indeed been an outstanding performer, rising
from about $8 in 1962 to $80 at the end of 1972.
Impressed, you bought the stock at $80 on December 31, 1972. Three years later, on December 31, 1975, it was $38, a 53% drop over a period in
which the S&P 500 was down only 14%.
😤😡😭
You might have dumped it in disgust at that point and never spoken to that friend again.
Yet over the next year it rose from $38 to $94.
By December 31, 1982 it was $775 and on its way to $223,615 today—a compounded annual return of 20.8% over the past 42 years.
Insights drawn:
*FOMO trading is prohibitive to life-changing returns
*Volatility is inevitable along the way to 100x
*Don’t blame yourself for underperforming the market in a short-term window; for instance, not owning all “technology stocks” this year... it’s okay!
*Create your own conviction; monitor the business / not the market price.
End of thread...
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The more I learn, the more I realize that most experts are really good at 1)aggregating information, 2)connecting multiple/varied dots, and 3)articulating complex insights in a simplistic manner.
Thread contd...
There are few people out there with truly “novel insights” (which isn’t a bad thing)
However, I do believe in some cases (science experiments, exploration, etc) unique experience can lead to novel insight.