Quite authoritative, @jack. Are you equally confident in the currency of $TWTR? It seems to have been diluted by 40% since your 2013 IPO, as shares outstanding rose from 569 million to 800 million, dilution of 5% a year. 1/
https://twitter.com/jack/status/1327770733401894913
With a share price that’s $1.46 below the closing price on the day of the IPO, with no dividends ever paid, it appears insiders have fared slightly better than your shareholders? 2/
With the stock trading at a $35 billion market cap, ten times your revenues, I wonder how the long-suffering $TWTR shareholder will make money. 3/
When you consider there are already another 70.5 million option and RSU shares outstanding and another 241.4 million authorized to be graciously issued (to insiders), it seems a currency in decline (to outsiders). 4/
If you can grow sales by 10% annually for the next decade & grow profits to an impressive 33% margin, and if you promise to shrink dilution to “only” 3% a year to 1,075 shares out (a smaller number than are already out, granted & authorized for issue), then EPS will be $2.79. 5/
With the stock at $43.48, its already trading at 15.6 times that 2030 earnings number. Of course if paying 30 times earnings is still fashionable ten years hence, then the shareholder can make 6.8% per year using these assumptions. 6/
If the multiple 10 years from now winds up at “only” 15.6 times, then the shareholder makes zip. Unless, that is, they can figure out a way to denominate their $TWTR shares not in dollars US but apparently in bitcoin? What say you, @jack? 7/7
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