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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
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15 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
With 47 days to go, the UK government still can't tell hauliers whether they need International Driving Permits or not.
That's not the only potential change. Take a gander at this... There's a tonne of things commercial drivers have to do to get prepared.
gov.uk/guidance/drivi…
And it's not just the drivers! Haulage firms have a laundry list of things they have to do to get ready in the next 47 days.

"you may need an ECMT or other additional permits for journeys to or through the EU" - note MAY. These permits are *scarce* btw!
gov.uk/guidance/carry…
- Lorry parks still under construction or under water
- Lack of customs personnel
- Lack of customs IT systems
- Ports clogged with abandoned PPE containers
- Kent Access Permits
- Haulage firms & drivers facing mountains of new red rape
- Dire ECMT permit shortages

Going well!
This thread might as well be labelled "how to dismantle a country".

Because that's what the Brexiters want (or at least the people pulling the strings and funding them). Smash the UK like a watermelon dropped onto concrete. Then suck everything valuable from the wreckage.

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More from @uk_domain_names

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
16 Nov
"Moderna Covid vaccine candidate almost 95% effective, trials show"

Good news. Also, it doesn't need complex refrigeration as it can be stored near room temperature. But the UK isn't at the front of the queue to get this one, unfortunately. theguardian.com/world/2020/nov…
This highlights the potentially checkered future that awaits us in 2021: different countries may have very different experiences of the pandemic going forward, based on which vaccines they bet on, and how soon those bets pan out.
Note that Moderna is already on the EU's radar as a vaccine partner, but not yet on the UK's. So EU countries are likely to get its vaccine much sooner than us.
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
16 Nov
The best way to think about Brexit benefits...

It is untrue that there are *no* benefits to Brexit.

But it is categorically the case that the benefits of Brexit are far, far outweighed by the benefits of EU membership.

(We're winning a penny at the cost of a pound. Hurrah!) Image
For example:
- save the membership fee
- can strike our own trade deals
- greater control over VAT, including 0% rate
- boost to UK manufacturers that sell only to the domestic market
- return of duty-free shopping
etc.

NONE OF THIS OUTWEIGHS THE PAIN. But it's all "real".
So any debate that claims Brexit has no merit is unfairly slanted. Much better to be analytical about the situation. Yes, Brexit could give us A, B or C. But the X, Y and Z we lose as a consequence are much more significant that those gains.
Read 5 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
15 Nov
I wonder if the UK Government secretly sees no deal Brexit as a revenue-raising opportunity?

The UK imports huge amounts of food and other items that will incur tariffs in a no deal scenario.

Who pays? Consumers (ultimately).

Who gets the money? HMRC. uktradeforum.net/2017/09/28/who…
The UK government could then turn around and blame the Evil EU for the need to levy tariffs, because they were unwilling to roll over and submit to all our demands.

Result: higher prices in the UK, more revenue to HMRC, some people fooled into being furious at the EU.
So say we end up having to pay an extra £1 of tariffs on a pack of Lurpak. HMRC gains £1 from the situation that it didn't have before, and the butter buyer - you or I - is £1 worse off.

(This simplifies the situation, because importers pay tariffs, but they WILL pass costs on!)
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
15 Nov
"both scenarios (no deal and FTA) will result in reduced product availability of EU products, reduced traded volumes across the UK and the EU, and higher prices for all types of products (branded, unbranded, and speciality)"

Thanks, Brexit!
lse.ac.uk/business-and-c…
"Import declarations alone could cost traders from both the UK and EU approximately £4 billion a year."

That's not for all industries, but merely for the food and drink sector. This extra cost equals nearly half our annual EU membership fee. And that's just import declarations!
"The lack of clarity of the Border Operating Model and the absence of functioning Good Vehicle Management System and Smart Freight Software further amplify the disruption in both scenarios."

Ah yes, the mythical computer systems. Which won't be ready. Chaos multiplied.
Read 7 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
15 Nov
George Eustice: "In a non-negotiated [Brexit] outcome, what would happen is companies like Arlo, which is a big Danish company selling brands like Lurpak in the UK that are manufactured in Denmark, would have to relocate that production to the UK."

Or... just give up on the UK.
He goes on to essentially throw away the entire UK sheep sector in a single sentence. Collateral damage, ground under the wheels of the Brexit cult bandwagon.
He also drops the nonsensical nugget that it would be open on the UK to drop tariffs.

That's only true if we do that consistently for the entire world.

So if we drop our tariffs on milk, anyone in the world can sell us milk tariff-free and that's the end of the domestic sector.
Read 7 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
14 Nov
We've reached the point in the Brexit fiasco where "No deal is better than a bad deal" [THREAD]

Why? Because there will be little political appetite to reopen a deal soon after it's signed. So if it's weak and watery and gives the UK very little, we'll be stuck with it for ages.
But if we founder on the iceberg of no deal, the damage will be greater yet, but there'll be a blank slate where there should have been a deal.

We will return to the negotiating table with no cards to play, against a backdrop of chaos at the ports, shortages, firms fleeing etc.
And that's where it's possible to see us ending up in Norway+ deal territory, i.e. inside the Single Market and Customs Union, but with control over our damn fish, and with a few other "perks" vs EU membership. (They're not really perks, but Leavers will perceive them as such.)
Read 5 tweets

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