We have a 2nd coronavirus vaccine that looks astonishingly effective — in early trials.
Moderna announced results this morning.
->30,000 patients in the trial
->Vaccine 94.5% effective
->Also a 2-dose vaccine
Trial not concluded. There are side effects, esp. after 2nd dose.
Moderna announced results this morning.
->30,000 patients in the trial
->Vaccine 94.5% effective
->Also a 2-dose vaccine
Trial not concluded. There are side effects, esp. after 2nd dose.
2/ Last Monday, as a reminder, Pfizer+BioNTech, announced preliminary results in trial of their vaccine — 90% effective. (Also a 2-dose vaccine)
That's 2 vaccines for coronavirus which are showing truly impressive effectiveness just months into development and testing.
Wow.
That's 2 vaccines for coronavirus which are showing truly impressive effectiveness just months into development and testing.
Wow.
3/ That's good news — but it's not going to rescue us from a hard, dark winter.
At the earliest, Pfizer & Moderna, and health departments around the US, might have the ability to administer vaccines to 20 million people starting mid- to late-December.
At the earliest, Pfizer & Moderna, and health departments around the US, might have the ability to administer vaccines to 20 million people starting mid- to late-December.
4/ Those early doses will go to front-line health care workers (trying care for us when we get sick) — and then to highest risk folks, including people who work at nursing homes, elderly, vulnerable.
General availability of these 2 vaccines in the US won't come til Feb/Mar/Apr.
General availability of these 2 vaccines in the US won't come til Feb/Mar/Apr.
5/ With the caution — which is hard to absorb — that results for both Pfizer and Moderna are good, but still somewhat preliminary.
Neither company released data on which age groups the vaccines are most effective for.
Neither released data on safety & side effects.
Neither company released data on which age groups the vaccines are most effective for.
Neither released data on safety & side effects.
6/ Just for context on the next four months:
The US just had 1,037,000 confirmed cases in the last 7 days.
Even at a modest 2% case fatality rate (lower than current 2.2%), that's 21,000 Americans who will die in the next 6 weeks — just from the last 7 days of cases.
The US just had 1,037,000 confirmed cases in the last 7 days.
Even at a modest 2% case fatality rate (lower than current 2.2%), that's 21,000 Americans who will die in the next 6 weeks — just from the last 7 days of cases.
7/ The previous week — Nov. 2 to 8 — the US had more cases in 7 days than ever before: 773,000.
Deaths coming from that week: 15,500.
Just from that 7 days.
So 3 weeks from now, we're looking at 2,600 deaths *a day* coming — just from what happened in the last 2 weeks.
Deaths coming from that week: 15,500.
Just from that 7 days.
So 3 weeks from now, we're looking at 2,600 deaths *a day* coming — just from what happened in the last 2 weeks.
8/ The coming 7 days will bring another 1 million US cases, and another 20,000 deaths — maybe 2,800 a day — by mid-December.
Totally unnecessary.
How do we know? Because the pandemic was out of control in spring, and then in summer, and never got this bad.
Totally unnecessary.
How do we know? Because the pandemic was out of control in spring, and then in summer, and never got this bad.
9/ Our fed-up-ness with the pandemic is killing our fellow Americans.
Where exactly is the 'World War II' 'sacrifice-for-all' spirit of America?
Where exactly is the 'World War II' 'sacrifice-for-all' spirit of America?
10/ So we have a remarkable contrast:
Incredibly good news on vaccines, in part because of American ingenuity & determination (Pfizer's vaccine is the result of research from BioNTech, a German company founded by two Turkish immigrants).
Mind-boggling bad news on the pandemic.
Incredibly good news on vaccines, in part because of American ingenuity & determination (Pfizer's vaccine is the result of research from BioNTech, a German company founded by two Turkish immigrants).
Mind-boggling bad news on the pandemic.
11/ A little more detail on Moderna results.
It is a double-blind study — participants get 2 injections, 28 days apart.
Half get vaccine. Half get saline solution.
Then physicians & scientists wait to see who gets covid-19, among the participants, as they go about their lives.
It is a double-blind study — participants get 2 injections, 28 days apart.
Half get vaccine. Half get saline solution.
Then physicians & scientists wait to see who gets covid-19, among the participants, as they go about their lives.
12/ In the Moderna study, to day:
• 95 people developed covid-19
-> 90 people who got the placebo / saline
-> 5 people who got the vaccine
Of the 95 people who caught covid-19, 11 were seriously ill — but those 11 all got the placebo.
• 95 people developed covid-19
-> 90 people who got the placebo / saline
-> 5 people who got the vaccine
Of the 95 people who caught covid-19, 11 were seriously ill — but those 11 all got the placebo.
13/ Those are great results. Having the vaccine appeared to protect the people who got it.
And it's not clear whether this result is statistically significant, but none of the people who got seriously ill got the vaccine.
It would be great if the vaccine also reduced severity.
And it's not clear whether this result is statistically significant, but none of the people who got seriously ill got the vaccine.
It would be great if the vaccine also reduced severity.
14/ The side effects from both Pfizer & Moderna have been passed over a bit.
For Pfizer, 'fatigue,' 'headache,' 'chills.' flu-like.
For Moderna, after the 2nd vaccine shot, 'fatigue,' 'fever,' 'muscle aches.' Also flu-like.
Not serious at all. But worth keeping in mind.
For Pfizer, 'fatigue,' 'headache,' 'chills.' flu-like.
For Moderna, after the 2nd vaccine shot, 'fatigue,' 'fever,' 'muscle aches.' Also flu-like.
Not serious at all. But worth keeping in mind.
16/ Moderna's vaccine was developed in partnership with NIH, with Anthony Fauci's division, the National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Disease.
When will it be available, if results hold up?
Some doses in December.
20 million doses / 10 million vaccinated total by Jan. 1.
When will it be available, if results hold up?
Some doses in December.
20 million doses / 10 million vaccinated total by Jan. 1.
17/ These vaccines do not rescue us from making it through the winter safely.
We must still look at those insane numbers of cases — 150,000 cases a day, more in one November day than in a *bad week* in April — and work to stop the spread ourselves.
We must still look at those insane numbers of cases — 150,000 cases a day, more in one November day than in a *bad week* in April — and work to stop the spread ourselves.
18/ Great news from Moderna. Great news from Pfizer / BioNTech.
And vaccines from 10 more companies are in third-stage trials.
One more reminder: The Moderna & Pfizer vaccines are all kinds of cold-temperature storage requirements.
Future vaccines may be easier to handle.
And vaccines from 10 more companies are in third-stage trials.
One more reminder: The Moderna & Pfizer vaccines are all kinds of cold-temperature storage requirements.
Future vaccines may be easier to handle.
19/ Excellent NYT story below on Moderna's results, and where that puts us.
Let's be motivated to be more careful the next month as these scientists and technicians and physicians work furiously hard to get vaccines ready.
nytimes.com/2020/11/16/hea…
Let's be motivated to be more careful the next month as these scientists and technicians and physicians work furiously hard to get vaccines ready.
nytimes.com/2020/11/16/hea…
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