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Szabolcs Panyi

@panyiszabolcs

Aug 18

Orbán is facing criticism from allies for undermining the Schengen area's security as Hungary's 'National Card' scheme provides Russians, Belarusians with easy access to Schengen visas and residency permits.

However, this issue is just the tip of the iceberg. Read on...👇🧵

🚩First of all, Hungary's so-called National Card grants the right to stay in Hungary for more than 90 days within a 180-day period, but for no longer than two years. The National Card can be renewed for up to an additional three years each time. This scheme was initially introduced to facilitate the employment of Ukrainian and Serbian migrant workers – then, on July 9, 2024, Viktor Orbán suddenly opened this opportunity to citizens of a number of Balkans countries, plus Russia and Belarus. It all happened at a time when Russian hybrid attacks and sabotage operations were targeting Baltic countries, Poland, and a number of other EU allies one after another. Orbán's move was seen as a clear provocation by multiple MEPs, who called on the EU to suspend Hungary's Schengen area membership.

EU Commissioner for Home Affairs @YlvaJohansson reacted to the Hungarian measure on X: "Russia is a security threat. We need more, not less vigilance. Giving potential Russian spies and saboteurs easy EU access would undermine the security of us all. Today in a letter I ask the Hungarian government to explain. If their easy access scheme is a risk, we will act."

Hungary's government is defiant. Foreign minister Péter Szijjártó stressed that the inclusion of Russian and Belarusian citizens in the National Card program poses no security risk to the Schengen Area, claiming that "these individuals must still undergo thorough checks to enter and stay in Hungary... Any claims to the contrary are outright lies from our Northern European and Baltic colleagues, blinded by their pro-war stance."

However, dozens of past examples clearly show that Hungary's government and local authorities are either unable or unwilling to protect the security of the Schengen area – especially when it comes to a large number of immigrants and Russian citizens with ties to intelligence.

🚩In April, the Hungarian government already proposed a law "to quickly meet the special labor needs" of companies involved in the construction of Rosatom's Paks 2 nuclear plant project and China's first Belt and Road Initiative project for Hungary, the Budapest-Belgrade railway reconstruction. Specifically for these two projects, workers from so-called third countries outside the EU could obtain work-related residence permits through a simplified procedure, valid for five years from the date of issuance (this also applies to family members).

Neighboring countries see Rosatom's Paks 2 project as a hotbed of Russian espionage. These concerns are not unfounded, as "Russia has a history of leveraging state-owned enterprises like Rosatom to cloak its intelligence activities," former senior Hungarian counterintelligence officer @peter1buda told me. As I recently wrote, the number of Russian citizens “working” on the Rosatom project in Hungary is expected to rise from around 400 currently to above 1,000 by 2025, according to a source with direct knowledge of the plans. The Russian colony in the city of Paks is planned to gradually rise to 6,000, and above. (Paks 2 is Rosatom's last such nuclear power plant project in the EU after Finland shut down its own following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.)

🚩It’s not only Russians and Belarusians gaining access to Hungary, but also Chinese nationals –specifically Chinese police officers. After signing a security agreement with China earlier this year, the Hungarian government has allowed these officers to patrol alongside their Hungarian counterparts, policing Chinese citizens within Hungary. Chinese dissidents express concern that this could enable Chinese authorities to carry out covert missions in other European countries within the Schengen zone and arbitrarily detain dissidents. In response, they have launched a petition urging NATO to intervene. As I previously reported, the agreement secretly grants Chinese security personnel the authority to bring and use their surveillance equipment within Hungary – again, inside the Schengen zone. The security pact has drawn significant international criticism, but the Orbán government dismissed the concerns, much like it did regarding the National Card scheme for Russians and Belarusians.

🚩Now, let’s discuss how Hungary handles border security and law enforcement. Between early 2023 and June 2024, Hungary released 2,290 out of 2,544 convicted human traffickers of foreign nationality from prison. In a highly controversial move that angered neighboring countries, Orbán's government began releasing foreign nationals convicted of human trafficking, citing overcrowded prisons and the argument that Hungarian taxpayers should not bear the cost of feeding foreign criminals. However, this was done without proper consultation with neighboring states. Upon release, these traffickers are expected to return to their home countries to complete their sentences, but compliance is left largely to their discretion. Notably, 16 of these released traffickers were re-arrested in Hungary, providing clear evidence that the government’s “get out of jail” policy is fueling further crime. (These numbers were uncovered by opposition Momentum party chairman @MartonTompos.)

🚩There's more. In 2023, approximately 40,000 undocumented migrants entered Slovakia, triggering a migration crisis and sparking panic along the Hungarian-Slovak border. This situation played directly into the hands of Orbán ally Robert Fico’s Smer party, boosting their support just before Slovakia’s parliamentary election. Numerous reports indicated that migrants crossed the Hungarian-Slovak border with little resistance, and despite Slovakia’s request for assistance, Hungarian authorities essentially did nothing. After Fico’s victory, the migrant flow suddenly ceased. Slovak police chief Štefan Hamran claimed that at least two terrorists were identified among the migrants allowed through by Hungary.

Hungary’s inaction – or, as some Slovak politicians suggest, complicity – in Slovakia's migration crisis led to the introduction of temporary border checks in the region by several countries, including at the Slovak-Polish border. This clearly demonstrated that Hungary either could not or did not want to enforce proper border controls, immigration regulations, and security measures, forcing its neighbors to step in.

🚩When discussing Hungary as a counterintelligence black hole within the Schengen area and NATO, one must highlight the Russian-led International Investment Bank (IIB), often dubbed the "Russian spy bank" by the media. In 2019, despite strong protests from major NATO allies, the bank relocated its headquarters from Moscow to Budapest. Orbán’s government granted the IIB extensive diplomatic immunities, making it an ideal cover for Russian espionage activities. It soon emerged that the IIB’s chairman, Nikolay Kosov, hails from a family with deep KGB ties. His mother was involved in stealing US nuclear secrets, while his father played a role in suppressing the 1956 Hungarian Revolution and later became the KGB’s chief of station in Budapest. Notably, when the IIB was scouting for its new headquarters in Budapest, they conveniently considered office spaces directly opposite the US Embassy in Budapest. For years, Orbán’s government ignored NATO allies' security concerns about the IIB being a vehicle for Russian influence and espionage, leading to US sanctions against the bank. These sanctions ultimately pressured Hungary into severing ties with the IIB.

🚩There’s also a well-known example that highlights how poorly Hungarian counterintelligence and immigration officers vet Russian applicants for visas and residency permits. In 2014, Orbán’s government launched its own golden visa scheme, which, as later uncovered by my colleagues at @direkt36, had the weakest security checks compared to other EU immigration programs. Through this scheme, not only did Putin’s allies and a notorious Russian mobster obtain Hungarian residency permits and Schengen visas, but so did Russian spy chief Sergey Naryshkin's son and his family. Adding to the absurdity, we later revealed – together with Ukrainian OSINT experts at @molfar_agency – that Naryshkin’s registered Hungarian address was listed as the luxury apartment of a Georgian-Israeli businessman, who happens to be an old friend of the Hungarian minister overseeing national security agencies (and who initiated the whole golden visa scheme). This not only suggests that Hungarian authorities are failing in their duties, but also points to possible political protection enabling such activities.

🚩Let’s now turn to the numerous instances of Russian diplomats conducting espionage in Hungary without facing any consequences. One prominent example is undercover GRU officer Anton Goriev, who infiltrated Hungarian far-right and far-left circles. Although Hungarian counterintelligence was well aware of him, there seemed to be no political will to take action. However, after being reassigned to Bratislava, Goriev was quickly expelled for espionage. By that time, he had already attracted the attention of Slovak authorities due to a drunk driving incident in which he hit a woman with his car in a parking lot.

🚩Last but not least, the real concern for EU and NATO allies is that Hungary has effectively become a logistics hub for Russian intelligence within the Schengen area. Unlike Vienna, often regarded as the region's Russian spy capital, Budapest and Hungary play a more passive yet crucial role. "Hungary’s role for Russian intelligence involves providing a base for couriers, operations staff, safe houses, and car rentals. It’s far more practical to manage these activities within the Schengen area than in the Balkans. While it’s impossible to determine exactly how many operations are conducted from Hungary, the volume is very high," a former Hungarian security officer told me already years ago. What does it mean for Budapest to be a logistics hub? The blowing up of the Vrbetice ammunition depot in the Czech Republic serves as a telling example. As @bellingcat's investigation revealed, "the operation involved at least two GRU officers who traveled under diplomatic cover to Budapest, a roughly five-hour drive from the munitions depot, shortly before the explosions."

"For Russian intelligence, Budapest and the Russian Embassy are crucial primarily for their logistical and transit functions. Hungary’s geographic location makes it a gateway to both the West and the Carpathian Basin—strategically connecting to Ukraine, Romania (key countries for the U.S.), and the Balkans," a former chairman of the Hungarian parliament’s national security committee told me.

🔗For links and sources to these stories, check the connecting posts👇

On Hungary's National Card and what can be done with it: "This blogpost maps the ways in which Hungary’s policy might undermine the security of the Schengen area and surveys the tools Member States and EU institutions have at their disposal to counter it." verfassungsblog.de/could-hungary-…

https://x.com/YlvaJohansson/status/1819088269277384712

EU Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson's letter to the Hungarian government.

https://x.com/YlvaJohansson/status/1819088269277384712

Read 21 tweets

Szabolcs Panyi

@panyiszabolcs

Jun 5

🕵️Today, we revealed how Orlen's ex-CEO Daniel Obajtek – who is summoned to testify in Poland but refuses to show up & authorities can't find him – has been laying low in a luxury penthouse in Budapest for months:

🧵Here's a thread of how we tracked him👇 vsquare.org/polands-orlen-…

2/ We used various journalists methods. First, there was a classic scoop coming from sources of @RadioZET_NEWS @MariuszGierszew that Obajtek spends time in a rented apartment in a luxury housing on Andrássy avenue. While ownership records didn't help to confirm, we found that...

3/ ...the company which bought and renovated the building, BBID Ltd, has close ties to Viktor Orbán’s government and its owners are even in business relations with the Hungarian PM’s son-in-law. No surprise: Obajtek knows Orbán in person & their parties (PiS, Fidesz) are allies.

Read 19 tweets

Szabolcs Panyi

@panyiszabolcs

Feb 20, 2023

@agielewska

SCOOP #RussiaBelarusLeak: We obtained a secret internal Kremlin document, ‘Strategic goals of the Russian Federation in the Belarusian direction’.

It’s a roadmap of how Russia will absorb Belarus by 2030.

With @agielewska for @VSquare_Project.🧵THREAD
vsquare.org/secret-kremlin…

2/ The more than dozen-page document was presented in the fall of 2021 to Dimitry Kozak, deputy head of Putin’s administration.

It was created by the Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation, headed by Alexei Filatov, with inputs from all intelligence agencies (GRU, SVR & FSB).

3/ The document - according to a Western intelligence officer with knowledge of the Kremlin’s inner workings - circulated through various Putin administration units. The ‘integration planning’ was led by Vadim Smirnov, who had been outed in 2013 as a 🇷🇺 spy infiltrating Lithuania

Read 7 tweets

Szabolcs Panyi

@panyiszabolcs

Jan 28, 2023

Who is the mystery man?

This week, political junkies in Hungary were mostly chatting about the curious case of prosecutors destroying some 'kompromat' found in an unrelated corruption scandal - a photo of a threesome involving a public figure. THREAD.👇
telex.hu/belfold/2023/0…

@JuditVarga_EU

2/ In 2021, authorities found the kompromat while searching the home of a corrupt government official who regularly bribed Minister of Justice @JuditVarga_EU's deputy. Besides cash, they also found this photo of a threesome, printed chat logs and two DVDs. hungarytoday.hu/former-state-s…

3/ 🔞"A man engages in sexual intercourse with a woman on a bed next to a mirrored sliding-door wardrobe. This act is being photographed by another person, who is also visible in the photo. They are all naked," authorities described the photo which they thought was a 'kompromat'.

Read 8 tweets

Szabolcs Panyi

@panyiszabolcs

Jan 20, 2023

1/ More than 170 Hungarian generals and senior military officers have been forced into early retirement in recent days by Hungary's MoD, led by Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky. He is a former business partner of Transmashholding, a Russian state-owned company.
telex.hu/belfold/2023/0…

2/ A new government decree has allowed the Minister of Defense to unilaterally terminate the service of soldiers who have reached the age of 45 and have at least 25 years of actual service, with two months' notice. telex.hu/belfold/2023/0…

@Telexhu

3/ According to @Telexhu, the minister "dismissed members of the Defence Staff en masse. (...) One source said (...) that at least a hundred colonels, generals had been given unilateral dismissals, while another said that 157 (...) with immediate effect." telex.hu/belfold/2023/0…

Read 4 tweets

Szabolcs Panyi

@panyiszabolcs

Oct 3, 2022

Breaking: Viktor Orbán's MPs voted NO on the opposition's proposal to hold a parliamentary vote on the 🇫🇮&🇸🇪 NATO accession tomorrow. Opposition parties are losing their patience as Hungary & Turkey are the last NATO members not to ratify the enlargement.
nepszava.hu/3171195_nato-s…

https://twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1550938363510890498

2/ Orbán has already signaled his reluctance this summer, when he said that Hungary pays special attention to Turkey's reservations.

Orbán is close to Erdogan, so that's an explanation. However, he seems to be close to Putin too - and that's another one.

https://twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1550938363510890498

3/ The treaties of the 🇫🇮🇸🇪 accession have been submitted to the Hungarian parliament on July 14 already. Orbán's MPs could have passed them in the summer as there was even an extraordinary session. However, the bills didn't even advance to a pre-plenary vote, committee level.

Read 8 tweets

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