Thread by @rawaz

I didn’t participate in the writing of #whitepaper; I am presenting my personal views on the #whitepaper telecom chapter that has been presented by the Iraqi Gov to Iraqi Parliament and what it means for the telecom sector specifically. [LONG THREAD]:

1/ The overall theme of the paper is to highlight the oversized of the role Public sector in the economy and clearly admits that there are no major private sector players in the economy that do not depend on government contracts except the telecom sector.

2/ “The majority of large companies in the private sector depend mainly on providing services to the state and on government contracts (with the exception of the telecommunications sector).”

3/ Today the largest listed companies on the Iraq stock exchange are AsiaCell and Zain with valuations of 1.7 billion and 4.3 billion USD respectively.
isx-iq.net/isxportal/port…

isx-iq.net/isxportal/port…

4/ According to 2019 figures alone Asiacell has paid over 240 million USD in fees & taxes. Zain has paid over 195 million USD; this excludes amortization of upfront license fees. Korek is not listed so unknown and CMC , the telecom regulator, does not publish annual reports.

5/ Specifically the paper mentions six policy areas that each on its own may have shortcomings but put together are significant; I will first address each area individually then address the potential if all of them are implemented together.

6/ Area #1 has already announced launch of 4G by 2020 and hopefully 5G! “Provide digital infrastructure, by introducing advanced technology (4G) beginning of next year, and prepare for introduction of 5G in the future.”

https://twitter.com/rawaz/status/1281483754247258112?s=21

7/ I remain skeptical to have 4G level speeds in the short term even if we have 4G labels on our phones; additionally this plan has already been derailed by a court order

https://twitter.com/zainiraq/status/1327960144265797633

8/ Area #2 covers introduction of “digital financial services and the online platforms...”

I will not comment on this thread in since it is more related to what can be built on top of telecom infrastructure and not telecom itself.

9/ Area #3 covers the usual granting of fourth license “Complete the procedures for granting the fourth license in accordance with the best international standards.”

10/ What is new here is that for the first time it includes wording “according to international standards” this is in direct contradiction with a parliament order designed to increase government employment.

https://twitter.com/rawaz/status/1309482517737738243?s=21

11/ Area #4 is perhaps the most significant change for the sector in a decade and that is the end of monopoly of fiber optic by the state.

12/ “Lift restrictions on efficient private sector operators to build, own, and operate international and domestic optic fiber infrastructures.”

13/ I have written a long thread about this issue here:

https://twitter.com/rawaz/status/1267155012238671872?s=21

14/ I have called this policy “not normal” before as the current tariff rate is around by these SOEs is 42.5 USD per Mbps per month which makes internet across Iraq simply unaffordable.

https://twitter.com/rawaz/status/1239541965995282433?s=21

15/ Area #5 states “End Internet capacities smuggling cases through complete control of access gates.”

16/ This likely means the continuation of international gateways tapping by Ministry of Communications; wiretapping of all communication in and out of Iraq.

17/ It is a likely in violation of article 40 of the Iraqi constitution which makes mass wiretapping of communications illegal.

18/ Given the #whitepaper covers 3-5 years; it seems the government wants to see the Ministry of Communications still provide services to operators while simultaneously trying to liberalize the fiberoptic market until full liberalization.

19/ Area #6 is a bombshell calling for privatization of the current fiber optic monopoly holder in the market “gradually” and putting it under the umbrella of regulations of the regulator CMC.

20/ “Reform the (ITPC), eliminating the overlapped functions between ITPC and CMC , and applying to ITPC and its contractual companies the same procedures approved for licensing fees, taxes and others, which would create additional revenues for the state.”

21/ So while each of these policies on individually may not be so significant, when put together their impact on the telecom sector and wider private sector investment can be enormous.

22/ Iraq currently has one of the worst internet speeds in the world and unlike other previous efforts; the #whitepaper correctly identifies the actual pain points that need to be addressed to turn this decline around.

https://twitter.com/rawaz/status/1136926953322221568?s=21

23/ These policies in the #WhitePaper are the most meaningful I have seen and if implemented by a competent CMC; they will likely result in investments of billions of dollars in telecom infrastructure via the private sector without any further spending by the state [END]

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