I'm a huge Milton Friedman fan. But the segment of his critique of fixed exchange rate regimes addressing the U.S. gold standard of 1879-1914 is not worthy of that great man.
"The period," Friedman writes, "saw ... deflation from 1879 to 1866 [sic], followed by inflation from 1896 to 1914, during which period there were repeated financial crises, many business fluctuations, a major depression in the 1890s, and a banking panic in 1907."
In the Monetary History of the United States, Friedman and Schwartz argue that the long-term decline in prices between 1873 and 1896 was not itself a cause of recession or depression--a fact that has since been affirmed by many other scholars. nber.org/system/files/w…
As for U.S. crises and panics, these weren't the fault of the gold standard: they were results of peculiar U.S. currency and banking arrangements. That's why Canada, despite using the same gold $, didn't have the same crises. alt-m.org/2015/07/29/the…
Finally, the post-1896 inflation--a result of the most impressive new gold discoveries ever--needs to be put in perspective. The average annual inflation rate for 1896-1914 was--hang on to your hats!--roughly 2%!

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More from @GeorgeSelgin

17 Nov
"She has also questioned whether the Fed should even exist." Set aside the question of Shelton's overall merits. I wonder why merely "questioning" the need for the Fed, or deposit insurance, or...whatever, should be considered unacceptable. 1/n washingtonpost.com/opinions/repub…
Academics routinely engage in such questioning, as do critical thinkers generally. The alternative is to treat existing arrangements as sacred cows, or as "the best of all possible" solutions. These are themselves very unhealthy attitudes. 2/n
Please, don't jump on me for ignoring other reasons for holding Shelton to be unqualified. Again, this isn't about her specifically. It's about whether even radical _questioning_ of the institutional status quo should be held to disqualify any candidate from any post. 3/n
Read 5 tweets
12 Nov
While simply "eliminating" deposit insurance is not a wise prescription for reform, show me an economist who denies that it can encourage excessive risk taking, and has done so in fact in many instances, and I'll show you a poor economist. 1/n
For a survey of the evidence by some very good economists, including @ademirguckunt see this now classic World Bank study: openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/8…
Deposit insurance began in this country (only the second in the world to adopt it nationally--after Poland if I recall correctly) as a way to shore-up a fundamentally rotten unit banking system. Even then the "moral hazard" problem it posed was well-recognized.
Read 7 tweets
12 Nov
@dandolfa How are you defining "public good" here? The fact that something _might_ be supplied by a public authority doesn't itself suffice. What evidence is there that provision of payment services is either non-excludable and non-rivalrous? 1/2
@dandolfa Nor does the Fed have any clear technological advantage I can think of. Yes, it monopolizes the final settlement media. But provided it makes its settlement services available to others, they can (and for the most part already do) handle the "retail" side of payments.
@dandolfa The Fed also monopolizes hand-to-hand currency. But here again, it doesn't follow that it must. Technically, private institutions could supply such media, as they once supplied their own paper banknotes. Today...
Read 16 tweets
11 Nov
It's remarkable how even a minor government intervention can sometimes take on a life of its own, feeding on itself in a way that sometimes seems to end only with it swallowing everything in sight!

Consider interest on reserves.
It began, innocently enough, as a proposal for unburdening banks and their customers of the implicit tax mandatory reserve requirements imposed on them, by having the Fed pay interest on required reserves.
Such was the aim of the 2006 "Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act" that first gave the Fed permission to pay interest on reserves (IOR). Banks then held any excess reserves, so it would have involved modest payments on a small fraction of bank assets. congress.gov/bill/109th-con…
Read 9 tweets
11 Nov
They've already been doing this, for centuries, in all sorts of different regulatory regimes, none of which ever actually banned 100% reserve banking. On the contrary: _minimum_ reserve ratios have been the norm. 1/n
So there is no need for speculation. The market has rendered its verdict, again and again. People have preferred to accept some risk in return for such pecuniary and non-pecuniary benefits as fractional-reserve banks are uniquely able to provide. 2/
This has been so since long before the advent of deposit insurance (which was not widely adopted until the 1980s). The very few prominent 100% banks of the past all benefited from state support--and they still failed! alt-m.org/2018/11/09/fri… 3/
Read 4 tweets
6 Nov
Thread: It's very important to distinguish the implications of Fed monetization of _outstanding_ Treasury debt from those of Fed monetization of net Treasury security issues.
Monetization of outstanding debt doesn't make much difference, just as @TheStalwart suggests. In the simplest case, financial institutions swap their securities for reserves. The interest burden then becomes a function of the interest paid on reserves.
Generally speaking, there's no fiscal gain from such monetization. The interest rate on reserves may be lower than some longer term Treasury borrowing rates. But because it's an adjustable rate, which the Fed may have to raise to check inflation, it may not be a bargain.
Read 19 tweets

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