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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
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18 Nov, 5 tweets, 1 min read
Imagine an alternate history in which Remain had won...
- No ferryless ferries
- No 27 lorry parks
- No 250 million extra customs declarations
- No £15 billion/year in extra red tape
- No £1 billion cost of re-registering chemicals
- No threat to farming or car manufacturing
- No issue of the Northern Irish border
- Less of an impetus for Scottish independence
- No problems with haulage, or cabotage
- No limits on days spent in the EU
- No special regulations for work trips
- No additional costs for touring bands
- No complex VAT filings
- No loss of financial services to EU capitals
- Blue passports, if desired (those were not dependent on Brexit)
- Additional restrictions on non-EU immigration, if desired (those were not dependent on Brexit)
- No threat of fishermen being unable to land their catch in the EU
- No £100 million+ "Get ready for Brexit" ad campaign
- No provisions for trucks queueing along motorways
- No concern about sourcing millions of compatible pallets
- No stockpiled goods cluttering ports and warehouses
- 100% laser focus on fighting the pandemic

Oh, well!
In this scenario, there would also have been complete peace of mind for millions of UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK. (The latter especially face the danger of a "new Windrush" scandal because many were only granted temporary leave to remain - a national disgrace!)

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More from @uk_domain_names

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
20 Nov
How has the UK fared during the pandemic vs other advanced *island* countries?

Not well. Very, very badly, in fact.

Our death toll is nearly twice that suffered in total by 9 countries with a combined population of 583,620,484 people.

World-beating, for all the wrong reasons! Image
All 4 nations fared badly, but England is by far the worst.

If we look at the entire world, then England's death toll per capita is higher than that of 212 other countries.

Only Belgium, San Marino, Peru, Andorra & Spain have suffered higher per-capita death tolls than England!
And before anyone comes out with some excuse about how it must be because the UK is so densely populated, take a closer look at the table in the first tweet in this thread...

Boris Johnson's not getting off the hook nearly that easily!
Read 5 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
16 Nov
Jul 2020: UK officially opts out of EU Covid-19 vaccine scheme.

Aug 2020: EU expands vaccine scheme with a 5th company, Moderna.

Oct 2020: EU fast-tracks Moderna approval.

Nov 2020: Moderna trial shows 95% effectivess from vaccine that doesn't need special storage.

Oh, well.
SOURCES

1. UK opts out of vaccine
bbc.com/news/uk-politi…

2. EU expands vaccine scheme to include Moderna
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

3. EU fast-tracks review process for vaccine approval
reuters.com/article/us-hea…

4. Moderna trial shows 95% effectiveness
theguardian.com/world/2020/nov…
If your immediate response is "but the UK didn't know the vaccine would be effective" that's to miss the whole point of the EU's scheme in the first place: by pooling resources, the EU has been able to place many more "bets" than the UK ever can manage when working alone.
Read 5 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
16 Nov
"Moderna Covid vaccine candidate almost 95% effective, trials show"

Good news. Also, it doesn't need complex refrigeration as it can be stored near room temperature. But the UK isn't at the front of the queue to get this one, unfortunately. theguardian.com/world/2020/nov…
This highlights the potentially checkered future that awaits us in 2021: different countries may have very different experiences of the pandemic going forward, based on which vaccines they bet on, and how soon those bets pan out.
Note that Moderna is already on the EU's radar as a vaccine partner, but not yet on the UK's. So EU countries are likely to get its vaccine much sooner than us.
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
16 Nov
The best way to think about Brexit benefits...

It is untrue that there are *no* benefits to Brexit.

But it is categorically the case that the benefits of Brexit are far, far outweighed by the benefits of EU membership.

(We're winning a penny at the cost of a pound. Hurrah!)
For example:
- save the membership fee
- can strike our own trade deals
- greater control over VAT, including 0% rate
- boost to UK manufacturers that sell only to the domestic market
- return of duty-free shopping
etc.

NONE OF THIS OUTWEIGHS THE PAIN. But it's all "real".
So any debate that claims Brexit has no merit is unfairly slanted. Much better to be analytical about the situation. Yes, Brexit could give us A, B or C. But the X, Y and Z we lose as a consequence are much more significant that those gains.
Read 5 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
15 Nov
I wonder if the UK Government secretly sees no deal Brexit as a revenue-raising opportunity?

The UK imports huge amounts of food and other items that will incur tariffs in a no deal scenario.

Who pays? Consumers (ultimately).

Who gets the money? HMRC. uktradeforum.net/2017/09/28/who…
The UK government could then turn around and blame the Evil EU for the need to levy tariffs, because they were unwilling to roll over and submit to all our demands.

Result: higher prices in the UK, more revenue to HMRC, some people fooled into being furious at the EU.
So say we end up having to pay an extra £1 of tariffs on a pack of Lurpak. HMRC gains £1 from the situation that it didn't have before, and the butter buyer - you or I - is £1 worse off.

(This simplifies the situation, because importers pay tariffs, but they WILL pass costs on!)
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
15 Nov
"both scenarios (no deal and FTA) will result in reduced product availability of EU products, reduced traded volumes across the UK and the EU, and higher prices for all types of products (branded, unbranded, and speciality)"

Thanks, Brexit!
lse.ac.uk/business-and-c…
"Import declarations alone could cost traders from both the UK and EU approximately £4 billion a year."

That's not for all industries, but merely for the food and drink sector. This extra cost equals nearly half our annual EU membership fee. And that's just import declarations!
"The lack of clarity of the Border Operating Model and the absence of functioning Good Vehicle Management System and Smart Freight Software further amplify the disruption in both scenarios."

Ah yes, the mythical computer systems. Which won't be ready. Chaos multiplied.
Read 7 tweets

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