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19 Nov, 6 tweets, 2 min read
NEW: leaked slides show the "path to Christmas" for Test and Trace

Items on the list include "rebuild public trust" and "reset our relationship with local authorities"

We were told it would be world-beating. With problems like this, is Test and Trace even fit for purpose?
The slides were presented in a video call hosted by Test and Trace's most senior executives, including Dido Harding

This is the plan - aka the "countdown to Christmas" - in more detail

Note the distinct lack of detail under the local council element 👀
My story on the Christmas "reset"

DHSC has been approached for comment - will post that when it arrives
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
This hits on something important
Response to my story from DHSC
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
Some people might say this slide is jumbled. To me, it's completely clear

Test and Trace has five key objectives: A, B, B, C and D 😂

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More from @rowlsmanthorpe

Rowland Manthorpe Profile picture
21 Nov
After news of lockdown leaked on 30 October, something changed in England. Right across the country, people started to go out

Over the next five days, movement surged in towns and cities

A short thread on a mass phenomenon
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
Using Google data, it's possible to track movement in different regions of the UK

Looking at the period between the leak and lockdown starting, the clarity of the trend is striking

Take Norwich, Derby and Blackburn with Darwen. Three very different areas, one unified response Image
With some notable exceptions (looking at you Cornwall), the whole of England responded in this way

Take Southampton, Cambridge and Hull. Again, three very different areas. But in this period they moved as one Image
Read 7 tweets
Rowland Manthorpe Profile picture
14 Nov
Yesterday SAGE released a one-page document called "potential trajectories for covid-19 in the next six months"

It's not going to brighten your day, but it's one of the best summaries of where we are and where we're heading

Some notes 🧵
1. The “first” and “second” waves are very different

The second is growing much slower because of the impact of social distancing. Before this lockdown, contact rates were about half of pre-lockdown levels

But that's still not low enough.
2. Social distancing needs to be very extensive

SAGE: “With a basic reproduction number of 3, controls need to reduce infectious contacts by two thirds”

For a rough sense of what they means in practice, here's a chart of movement in London. It's been above 33% since June
Read 10 tweets
Rowland Manthorpe Profile picture
1 Nov
Incredible story in The Times, which I'm told is definitely true. For most of its existence, the contact tracing app for England and Wales has been using the wrong risk threshold, so it's hardly been sending out any alerts telling people to self-isolate
thetimes.co.uk/article/softwa…
One of the biggest complaints about the app has been ghost messages saying "you've been near someone with covid-19". If the risk threshold hadn't been artificially high, many of those alerts would have been instructions to isolate

As it was, people were told to ignore them
The Times has described this as a software bungle. I understand the issue was incredibly human. There was meant to be a change to the risk threshold on the app, but no-one went in and made the update
Read 7 tweets
Rowland Manthorpe Profile picture
30 Oct
Pictures vs data

Today, every media outlet carries shots of young people partying in Nottingham before Tier 3 came into force

In reality, confirmed cases in the city have been falling since early October, including among the young
This may well be because testing isn't picking up infections - and it seems as if cases in Nottinghamshire are rising among older people, which is a real concern

But the picture from pillars 1 and 2 doesn't seem to bear out the idea that young people are flouting restrictions
A graph to illustrate that point, using a fantastic app from @VictimOfMaths (ht @Telstar22995931). A huge spike among 15-to-24-year-olds (okay, students) which flattened off several weeks ago

The worry is the upward drift among other ages
Read 5 tweets
Rowland Manthorpe Profile picture
26 Oct
EXC: Last week I found out that the contact tracing app was going to have its third boss in six months

Now @nmsonline and I have seen internal emails showing that she's on a short-term contract too

Insiders say it's no way to run an organisation
news.sky.com/story/coronavi…
Test and Trace is a strange, ephemeral organisation. The staff are largely consultants. The bosses are execs on secondment

If you're working there - or indeed any part of government - I'd love to know what you make of it. What's the rationale? How did it come to be that way?
The response to our story from DHSC emphasises the immense scale of T&T, which should never be underestimated. But the most common complain I hear about it is the lack of coordination. Wouldn't a permanent leadership team help with that? I'd genuinely like to know ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Rowland Manthorpe Profile picture
16 Oct
Real issue with the contact tracing app in England and Wales. Dozens of people are reporting incorrect changes to the risk level in their area

I am investigating, but I believe this is an error caused during an attempt to change the risk level feature

Some examples of people reporting this error

1. Two phones in the same place showing different alert levels
2. High risk areas being classed as medium
Read 4 tweets

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