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Will Stancil Profile picture
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19 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Joe Biden: I will reach across the aisle and negotiate bipartisan deals for the American people

The literal actual official GOP:
This asymmetry is not sustainable. You cannot share government with a party that tells itself, and its supporters, that it is the only party that is allowed to win elections or govern.
Because it HELPS THE GOP to talk about them in nice inside-voice language, while they refuse to do the same for us. It lets them rile up their followers while facing no political penalty
Republicans shouldn't get to have their cake and eat it too, a nice accommodationist opposition, always willing to cut a deal and talk about the importance of bipartisan compromise, while simultaneously working to fire up their base and preparing it for the overthrow of democracy

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More from @whstancil

Will Stancil Profile picture
19 Nov
A long-time hobbyhorse of mine is that ISSUE POLLING, as opposed to ELECTION POLLING, is next to worthless. (Of course, recent events call election polling into question, too.) The problem with issue polling is that it's totally unclear what it tells you.
It's really easy to know what an election poll tells you:

"In a few weeks [or whenever] you will go into a voting booth, and have to pick between these options. Which will you pick?"

You can perfectly replicate the decision in front of voters.
Of course there are other pitfalls - you don't know who will vote, you don't know if people will change their minds, etc. - but ultimately you can at least offer poll respondents the exact choice they'll have to make on a ballot.

But an issue poll doesn't work like that.
Read 8 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
17 Nov
The point I’m trying to make here is that this isn’t explainable by differing incentives or institutional factors, the places we’ve all been trained to look for answers. There is a PSYCHOLOGICAL gap between D and R leadership
This gap - how one party is led by people who are nervous and afraid, who refuse to act without a foolproof plan, and who pride themselves on being smart, while the other is led by people who are intuitive, aggressive, risk takers - is totally undiscussed but hugely important
There are a lot of potential explanations about how that gap came to exist, ranging from the age of Dem leaders, the lack of accountability for failure, dynamics in the parties, but with leadership essentially fixed it’s the content of their character that is the core problem
Read 4 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
17 Nov
National media should be paying closer attention to what’s happening in Minnesota: not only did our state senate GOP cause a massive COVID outbreak by flouting guidelines, but they covered it up, hiding that they had exposed many people.
This comes after many months of working to obstruct safety measures by the Governor, including opposition to a mask mandate, removal of his commissioners in retaliation, and insistent pressure to fully reopen.
The most public opponent of safety measures was the Senate GOP leader, Paul Gazelka. Immediately after the election he changed to noticeably less strident tone. People assumed he was dialing back performative opposition.

In reality, it seems he learned he’d contracted the virus.
Read 4 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
12 Nov
For people asking why Dems are so gloomy, here's the baseline scenario for the next eight years of American government. It's a nightmare:
2021:
-Recession
-COVID
-Gridlock in Congress
-GOP-run statehouses gerrymanders new congressional districts with Trump's disrupted Census
-SCOTUS strikes down Biden executive orders, begins rolling back reproductive rights, civil rights, etc.
2022:
-Dems lose House in midterms, assisted by gerrymandering
-GOP holds Senate in midterms
-GOP state control increases as gerrymandering is intensified nationwide
Read 16 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
12 Nov
This is the part of the Trump narrative that liberals are most blind to. Dem leadership, especially in the House, has been a catastrophe. Petty, parochial, short-sighted, inert, unable to rise to any challenge, and obsessed with maintaining its own power.
Even now, with zero accomplishments to their name, Trump unchecked at any point except (perhaps) by the election result, all previous promises of oversight expired with the clock run out, and an electoral flop, many liberals think they’re watching genius in action.
All the literally hundreds of message bills Pelosi bragged about, what did they do? Absolutely nothing - none of them will ever become law.

All of the promises of “arrows in the quiver” - were any ever fired?

The assurances that “healthcare” would increase majorities? Imploded.
Read 4 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
12 Nov
Pelosi and Dem leaders spent several years defending the idea that the key to replicating 2018, and winning swing districts, was a laser focus on health care issues, and to avoid conflict with Trump.

And they won the argument! Their strategy was universally implemented.
Then, the 2020 downballot races were a disaster, and Dems leaders' role in deciding messaging strategy was instantly forgotten by almost everyone. To hear it today, Dems spent months talking about socialism and police abolition.
DC Dems are suffering a bizarre collective amnesia, seemingly unable to recognize that they got to run the exact race that leadership urged them to run... and it failed.
Read 5 tweets

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