I have researched coups and coup attempts in Guatemala (1954), Iran (1953), Indonesia (1965-1966), and elsewhere. Reading reports at the time and afterwards it’s always striking how poorly organized and led and doomed to fail they seem. Until they succeed. This one was close.
I say was Bc I don’t think this shambolic attempt will succeed, dangerous as it is. But @ThePlumLineGS and others have noted, had a few states been closer this could have happened. It’s seems insane that such an incompetently managed coup attempt could succeed. But others have.
It’s also important to note that despite popular perceptions that US-sponsored coup attempts always succeed or the US is omnipotent, many such attempts have failed, and those that succeed seem, when reading real time reporting and Intel, touch and go til the very end.
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