Thread by @ThePlumLineGS

1) Here's a question for legal experts about Trump's ongoing efforts to steal the election.

This @SangerNYT piece gets at a key point. Trump would need *multiple* GOP state legislatures to all appoint electors in defiance of their state's popular vote:

nytimes.com/2020/11/19/us/…

@SangerNYT 2) If Trump got MI and PA to do this (which he won't), it wouldn't necessarily help him. In those states, governors (both Dems) appoint the electors.

If so, you'd have competing slates sent to Congress. As I wrote the other day, that doesn't help Trump:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…

@SangerNYT 3) So @SangerNYT says Trump's only way forward it to get GA and AZ to do it (both have GOP governors). But even then he'd still need at least 1 more from a state with a Dem governor.

He needs at least 3 states to do this to get Biden's total below 270:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…

@SangerNYT 4) But here another complication arises. If Congress deadlocks over which slate to accept (the fake legislature one or the real one from the Dem governor), what happens then?

If a state's electors are simply not counted at all, does the threshold for a majority of electors drop?

@SangerNYT 5) @tribelaw and @dorfonlaw think it does. In this scenario,. all Trump would be doing is simply eliminating electors from getting counted, not adding to his own totals. Biden still wins, because he still ends up with a majority of *remaining* electors:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…

@SangerNYT @tribelaw @dorfonlaw 6) But as best as I can determine, this question still hasn't been definitively resolved. If somehow Trump did this and got Biden below 270, the theory that makes the steal possible is that this kicks it to the House in another way, one resolved by balance of state delegations.

@SangerNYT @tribelaw @dorfonlaw 7) A quick correction to the above: As several have pointed out, the governor *certifies* the electors, which isn't the same as *appointing* them. But the meaning is the same: The governor certifies the electors in accordance with the popular vote, and those get sent to Congress.

@SangerNYT @tribelaw @dorfonlaw 8) Regardless, the point that legal experts can help us with is: If Trump somehow did this and a given state's electors don't end up getting counted at all, how does the winner get determined? Is it a majority of the lower-than-270 threshold, or is the threshold still 270? FIN

@SangerNYT @tribelaw @dorfonlaw CODA: But let's not lose sight of just how insanely corrupt it would be for even one legislature to do this, and how unforgivable it is that Trump is demanding it *and* that many Republicans would be totally fine with him stealing the election this way:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…

Good stuff on this point from @brianbeutler:

"If the outcome hinged on a single tipping-point state, split by a few hundred or a few thousand votes, what’s currently playing out as reckless nonsense would instead be playing out as a successful coup."

mailchi.mp/crooked.com/bi…