I’m glad you asked Erick, because this attempt —which you and other conservatives have made — to make a false equivalence between 2016 and 2020 is worth examining in more detail. 1/
Let’s focus on the most obvious difference: Hillary Clinton conceded the 2016 race within hours or the networks calling it. We are now approaching two weeks between a similar network call and Trump refusing to concede. 2/
Furthermore, by and large Democrats did not sabotage the transition period. Obama’s GSA ascertained the result for Trump almost immediately. Democrats in Congress did not en masse urge Clinton to litigate the outcome. FFS, Clinton attended the inauguration. 3/
Now, it could be argued by some that Democrats called the legitimacy of Trump’s election into doubt with: a) the Russia investigation and b) Hillary’s rhetoric about Trump being illegitimate. But that’s a bad argument for two reasons. 4/
First, the assessment of Russian interference came from the intelligence community. Warnings & reports were issued both before and after the election. The Mueller report & Senate Intelligence Committee report confirmed much of this. It wasn’t just Democrats — it was everyone. 5/
Second — and this is key — when Hillary Clinton called Trump’s election into doubt, did Democrats back her play? No, not really. Her pronouncements would generate a single news cycle and then nothing else, because elected Dems did not want to litigate 2016 again. 6/
Contrast all of this with Trump’s behavior. He has refused to concede despite losses verified by recounts. He has blocked Biden transition efforts. After litigation failures, he is pressuring state GOP officials to delay certification/vote for independent slates of electors. 7/
All of Trump’s actions make any of Hillary Clinton’s protestations for the last four years look like a pleasant garden party. But that’s not the most important distinction between 2016 and 2020. 8/
The most important distinction is that in 2020, the GOP has wholeheartedly backed Trump’s efforts to delegitimize the election results. Democrats did not do the same for Clinton. 9/
The GOP has done this despite the fact that state officials from both parties — not to mention Trump’s own DHS officials — have declared November’s election to be free and fair. 10/ washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…
So you’ll forgive me, @EWErickson, if I question the premise of *your* question. Because the idea that the GOP’s 2020 behavior is payback for the 2016 behavior of Democrats is the kind of thinking that one would normally find in a small, petulant child. #fin
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Having read the letter my hot take is that it’s neither the outrage that mainstream supporters of Ukraine believe nor is it the out-of-the-box thinking that progressives believe. It’s a giant nothingburger.
Seriously, if this is the criteria for diplomacy to work then by all means go ahead and try. There’s no bargain that will be struck that meets those conditions. progressives.house.gov/_cache/files/5…
Completely agree with Ben’s tweet. It’s all about the vibes and the timing is weird and tbh I kinda sorta suspect they don’t like tankies saying that only the Trumpist right is trying to seek peace.
Damn. @kath_stoner ain’t messing around on this #APSA2022 panel on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Makes it clear at the outset that she thinks Mearsheimer’s arguments about the causes of the war are horses**t.
P.S.: Mearsheimer is also on this panel.
Mearsheimer, in his response, claims that Putin’s long July 2021 essay on Ukraine provides zero evidence that Putin wanted/intended to absorb Ukraine into Russia.
The next speaker @darelasn spends the first five minutes of his presentation pointing out the myriad ways that Russia wanted to absorb Ukraine and has wanted to do so for more than a century, falsifying Mearsheimer’s claims.
"Trump had privately indicated that he would seek to withdraw from NATO and to blow up the U.S. alliance with South Korea, should he win reelection." washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
"'In a second Trump term, I think he may well have withdrawn from NATO,' Bolton said. 'And I think [Russian President Vladimir] Putin was waiting for that.'" washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…
If this estimate is correct it’s a stunning figure after just a month of conflict. But I have some questions for security tweeps… 1/5 wsj.com/livecoverage/r…
First, “up to” is doing a LOT of work. If I understand their methodology, the number could also be as little as 21,000 — still, pretty high, but nearly half the maximum estimate. 2/5
Second, how reliable is the “3*KIA = WIA/MIA” rule of thumb? I’ve seen it tossed around a lot. Are there reasons to believe it might not apply to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? 3/5