I read the Fitch statement (I think) and my reading of it was the frustration the agency had with gov not meeting it’s own self-defined targets for fiscal consolidation. It’s not all ‘wasted 9 years’. A lot of the feedback is that the agencies don’t believe in the current action.
If everything about the ratings announcement was backward-looking we’d know the rating and not need to wait till midnight for statements. Agencies are looking for progress, and they are saying they can’t see it.
And we know that a critical issue is the wage bill, and taking two years to still not have a decision is a huge part of the negative outlook. Otherwise those statements downgrades can just be labelled Covid19-adjustments.
“Govt launched Recovery Plan focused on boosting infra investment, energy supply, job creation...But track record of implementation of earlier reform initiatives has been relatively weak & even if implemented, the effect of reforms would be limited”. This is in recent tense.
“the track record of implementation of earlier reform initiatives has been relatively weak and, even if implemented, the effect of the reforms would be limited and take time to accumulate.”. This is feedback on reforms, not ‘the 9 years were crap now we are punishing you’
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